Alan's Green Thoughts

It is that time of year again. This year we have seen the tide substantially turn against the mess that is Brexit, which all started two years ago with the EU membership referendum. However, with only 3 months left before the official withdrawal date, action must be taken fast to stop the Brexit chaos. Jeremy Corbyn's recent announcement that he will continue Brexit if he won a hypothetical snap election, despite increasing evidence of the damage it could do to Britain socially and economically, shows that he has no more integrity than Theresa May when it comes to hearing the changing wishes of the British public. We have also seen the passing of many great figures of our time, notably Professor Stephen Hawking, Marvel Comics creator Stan Lee, and earlier today, former Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown. John Jeremy Durham Ashdown, to give his full name, first rose to prominence in 1983 when he won the reliably Conservative constituency of Yeovil, which Labour had narrowly f...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from this week were as follows: Charnwood BC, Anstey: Conservative 523 (50.8%, +17.1%), Labour 507 (49.2%, +33.6%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats, who did not defend the seat [UKIP and Greens did not stand either] Cumbria CC, Kent Estuary: Liberal Democrats 1381 (62.0%, +9.0%), Conservative 666 (29.8%, -7.2%), Green 109 (4.9%,-1.1%), Labour 70 (3.14%, -0.7%). South Lakeland DC, Arnside & Milnthorpe: Liberal Democrats 1319 (59.4%, +7.9%), Conservative 709 (31.9%, +0.2%), Green 125 (5.6%, -6.4%), Labour 68 (3.1%,-1.7%). Anstey has never had any Labour councillors; its larger predecessor ward, Bradgate, never elected any Labour councillors either. Yet due to the absence of Liberal Democrat and Green candidates, this is the closest Labour have come to winning a council seat in Anstey. UKIP's absence, meanwhile, saved the Conservatives from a locally historic loss. The Lake District's affluence is stro...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from this week were as follows: (12/12/18): Ashfield DC, Sutton Junction & Harlow Wood: Ashfield Independents 856 (81.9%), Labour 97 (9.3% -28.6%), Conservative 48 (4.6%, -20.0%), Democrats & Veterans 26 (2.5%), UKIP 13 (1.2%), Liberal Democrats 5 (0.5, -37.0%). Ashfield Independents gain from Labour: (13/12/18): Dumfries & Galloway UA, Dee & Glenkens (1st preferences): Conservative 1682 (45.9%, +12.4%), SNP 1024 (28.0%,+8.4%), Independent (Wyper) 569 (15.5%, -18.6%),Green 342 (9.3%, +3.0%), UKIP 46 (1.3%). Conservative hold at stage 4. [Other Indepedents, Labour, and Liberal Democrats did not stand] Haringey LBC, West Green: Labour 1273 (56.6%, -7.3%), Liberal Democrats 621 (27.6%, +19.1%), Green 243 (10.8%, -2.7%), Conservative 114 (5.1%, -3.9%). Harlow DC, Toddbrook: Labour 464 (51.1%, +5.4%), Conservative 311 (34.3%, +0.9%), UKIP 89 (9.8%, -11.2%), Liberal Democrats 44 (4.8%). All changes are since 2015....

Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence yesterday by Conservative MPs-but the margin, 200-117, still puts the Conservatives in big trouble in the long term. 36.9% of MPs voted against Theresa May, including the majority of Conservative backbenchers. Why did it fail in spite of the chaos over the Brexit deal? Theresa May is one of the worst Prime Ministers in British history, make no mistake. But unlike with John Redwood's challenge to John Major, which actually failed by a larger margin (89 votes to John Major's 218), a contest between Eurosceptics and pro-Europeans within the Conservative Party, there were and are no credible challengers to Theresa May despite pollsters claiming there are and despite Mrs May being widely perceived as incompetent. The alternatives frequently cited have no notably different or useful vision (e.g. Sajid Javid), are too divisive despite name recognition (e.g. Boris Johnson), are more extreme than Theresa May in terms of a Brexit outlook a...

Last month, it was announced that Fiona Bruce, currently a BBC News presenter (and not to be confused with the sitting Conservative MP for Congleton of the same name), will be hosting Question Time from January 2019, replacing David Dimbleby who is retiring at the end of this year after 24 years of hosting the programme BBC Question Time's quality has been deteriorating overall since 2015, especially due to the excessive coverage given to UKIP compared to the Green Party, and also due to panels becoming more unbalanced as a whole. David Dimbleby's attitude towards female panellists in particular, especially those of a progressive stance like Caroline Lucas and former Green Party leader Natalie Bennett, has been dismal. In general, his stance is outdated and out of touch with the need for a more inclusive, modern politics. As a result, I have often refused to watch BBC Question Time unless the panel is particularly interesting or innovative. I am therefore personally glad that...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections of this week were as follows: Highland UA, Wester Ross, Strathpeffer & Localsh (1st preferences): SNP 1318 (33.1%, +7.0%), Conservative 1037 (26.0%, +7.6%), Independent (Greene) 622 (15.6%, +3.9%), Green 359 (9.0%, -2.2%), Liberal Democrats 320 (8.0%, -5.4%), Labour 174 (4.4%, -0.7%) Independent (Davis) 130 (3.3%), UKIP 16 (0.4%), Libertarian 8 (0.2%). SNP gain from Liberal Democrat at stage 8. Leicester UA, Belgrave: Labour 5,477 (86.6%, +17.0%), Conservative 412 (6.5%, -11.9%), Liberal Democrats 238 (3.8%), Green 199 (3.1%, -2.5%). [UKIP and TUSC did not stand] Oxford BC, Wolvercote: Liberal Democrats 998 (60.5%, -0.5%), Conservative 404 (24.5%, +1.0%), Labour 162 (9.8%, -0.1%), Green 86 (5.2%, -0.5%). Surrey CC, The Byfleets: Independent 1128 (48.6%, +16.2%), Conservative 782 (33.8%, -7.6%), Liberal Democrats 309 (13.3%, -4.2%) UKIP 101 (4.4%, +1.1%). Independent gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stan...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from this week were as follows: Bromley LBC, Kelsey & Eden Park: Conservative 1626 (45.2%, -0.5%), Labour1046 (29.1%, +2.3%), Liberal Democrats 633 (17.6%, +4.2%), UKIP 219 (6.1%, +2.2%), Green 73 (2.0%, -8.1%). Buckinghamshire CC, Aylesbury North West: Liberal Democrats 654 (39.3%, +9.5%), Conservative 507 (30.5%,+5.9%), Labour 426 (25.6%, +2.9%), Green 77 (4.6%, +1.4%). [UKIP did not stand] Northampton BC, Delapre & Briar Hill: Labour 914 (43.4%, +17.2%), Conservative 549 (26.0%, +2.4%), Independent (McKenna) 417 (19.8%), Liberal Democrats 133 (6.3%, -9.9%), Green 95 (4.5%). [UKIP, Save Our Public Services and BNP did not stand] OIdham MBC, Failsworth East: Labour 677 (58.5%, +5.3%), Conservative 336 (29.0%, +0.5%), Independent (Bates) 94 (8.1%), UKIP 32 (2.8%), Liberal Democrats 18 (1.6%,+0.4%).[Previous Independent and Green Party did not stand] All changes are since May. Oxfordshire CC, Wheatley: Liberal Democrat...

" Oppositions don't win elections-governments lose them." -Political adage. In the Victoria state election of 2018, the odds were in Labor's favour over the Liberals right from the start-but they beat expectations nonetheless and achieved a landslide majority of 30 in an 88 seat state parliament. It was earlier believed that due to Green advances in inner Melbourne electorates, helped by favourable demogfraphic change, that far from winning an easy majority Labor might possibly have to rely on the Greens for confidence and supply. The Liberal/National Coalition, led by Matthew Guy, campaigned heavily on law & order issues and the need to shift Melbourne's rapidly growing population more to its outlying satellite towns and rural areas, but Labor under current Premier Daniel Andrews was doing well throughout the 2014-18 Victoria Parliament, meaning that it was on course to victory throughout the campaign whether or not it would fall short of an overall major...

Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections were as follows: Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Conservative 1540 (52.4%, +12.7%), Labour 828 (28.2%, -8.3%), Liberal Democrats 313 (10.7%, -0.8%), Green 127 (4.3%, -6.6%), WEP 79 (2.7%), Independent (Oyaloyu) 50 (1.7%). [UKIP did not stand] Westminster LBC, Lancaster Gate: Conservative 913 (47.2%, -1.5%), Labour 684 (35.4%, -1.0%), Liberal Democrats 275 (14.2%, -0.7%), Green 62 (3.2%). Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Datchet: Conservative 525 (56.0%, -3.1%), National Flood Prevention Party 223 (23.8%), Labour 121 (12.9%, -9.1%), Liberal Democrats 48 (5.1%,-13.8%), Green 21 (2.2%). Wirral MBC, Upton: Labour 1490 (61.3%, +3.1%), Conservative 705 (29.0%, +0.4%), Green 151 (6.2%, -0.5%), Liberal Democrats 83 (3.4%, -0.8%). [TUSC did not stand] All changes are since May. The open divisions in the Conservatives, which resulted in a failed attempt to call for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May by the European Researc...

Readers, the results from British local by-elections of this week were as follows: Bassetlaw DC, East Retford West: Labour 441 (49.9%, +14.1%), Conservative 296 (33.5%, +4.2%), Liberal Democrats 146 (16.5%, +3.4%). [UKIP did not stand] Kent CC, Canterbury North: Conservative 1355 (42.3%, -12.3%), Liberal Democrats 756 (23.6%, +7.1%), Labour 660 (20.6%, +4.1%), Green 157 (4.9%, -1.9%), Independent 155 (4.8%), UKIP 120 (3.7%, -1.9%). Oxfordshire CC, Grove & Wantage: Liberal Democrats 1925 (47.9%, +2.4%), Conservative 1447 (36.0%, -0.9%), Labour 459 (11.4%, +2.7%), Green 185 (4.6%, -4.1%). Stroud DC, Dursley: Labour 889 (50.5%, +15.2%), Conservative 704 (40.0%, +15.4%), Green 90 (5.1%, -9.8%), Liberal Democrats 79 (4.5%, -20.7%). Bassetlaw has been trending towards the Conservatives recently, like many ex-mining districts in England, with the constituency of Bassetlaw turning up the lowest Labour majority since 1983 in last year's general election. However, in ...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections this week were as follows: Ealing LBC, Dormers Wells: Labour 1868 (72.1%, +1.6%), Conservative 429 (16.6%, +1.2%), Liberal Democrats 188 (7.3%, +3.6%), Green 106 (4.1%, -3.5%). [Polish Pride did not stand] Harlow BC, Bush Fair: Labour 543 (45.0%, +0.0%), Conservative 460 (38.1%, -0.8%), UKIP 103 (8.5%, -2.5%), Harlow Alliance 63 (5.2%), Liberal Democrats 39 (3.2%, -1.8%). All changes are since May. Harlow BC, Netteswell: Labour 497 (50.2%, -13.0%), Conservative 254 (25.6%,-0.7%), Harlow Alliance 99 (10.0%), UKIP 98 (9.9%, +3.6%), Liberal Democrats 43 (4.3%, +0.2%).All changes are since May. Torridge DC, Holsworthy: Conservative 698 (56.4%, +15.7%), Independent (Allen) 314 (25.4%), Liberal Democrats 151 (12.2%, -6.6%),Labour 75 (6.1%). [UKIP and Greens did not stand] Amongst these local by-elections, the performance of the Harlow Alliance is interesting for good reason. Harlow is a "New Town" and therefore has not ha...

The midterm elections of the United States of America produced a very interesting result-the Republicans, under President Donald Trump, secured control of the Senate with 3 gains, but lost control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats. Due to the lack of spending limits in US elections, and the restrictive ballot access laws, the majority of federal elections in the USA are between just the Democrats and the Republicans, although the Greens and Libertarians are gaining ground very slowly. The Senate elections resulted in independents Angus King and Bernie Sanders easily holding their seats, but surprisingly given the unpopularity of President Trump resulted in the Republicans gaining 3 Senate seats which were up for election this year. Mike Braun defeated Joe Donnelly in Indiana, in the key state of Missouri Josh Hawley defeated Claire McCaskill, and in North Dakota Kevin Cramer decisively defeated Heidi Heiklamp. The Democrats compensated this by gaining a senate seat...

Six days ago (I apologise for the delay; it happened due to the amount of time needed for the report on the Brazilian elections and my postgraduate politics studies at Keele University), Hesse held its state election, which, if not to the extent of Bavaria (Bayern) two weeks ago, experienced a Green surge with the Greens finishing second, narrowly ahead of the Social Democrats (SPD). The Greens managed to poll 19.8%, which whilst not quite as good as polls initially expected is the best ever Green result achieved in Hesse. They won a total of 29 seats, more than doubling their 2013 total, which included as many as five single member constituencies for the first time ever at Land level in Hesse; normally the size of the SMCs at state and federal level in Germany makes it very difficult for them to be won by parties other than the CDU and SPD. Just as in Bavaria, the CDU and SPD suffered substantial losses, with the CDU dropping to 40 seats and just 27% of the vote...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections which took place yesterday (All Saints' Day) were as follows: Kirklees MBC, Denby Dale: Labour 1834 (46.7%, +3.8%), Conservative 1689 (43.0%, -4.2%), Liberal Democrats 289 (7.4%, +4.6%), Green 116 (3.0%, -4.2%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since this May. Newham LBC, Boleyn: Labour 1725 (74.8%, +1.2%), Conservative 327 (14.2%, -0.5%), Green 172 (7.5%, -4.2%), Liberal Democrats 83 (3.6%). South Gloucestershire UA, Dodington: Liberal Democrats 693 (49.3%, +8.6%), Conservative 554 (39.4%, +17.3%), Labour 158 (11.3%, -0.7%). [UKIP did not stand] Labour's gain from the Conservatives in Denby Dale is a critical one, since Dewsbury is still a key marginal at general election time and Denby Dale is a small village that also has excellent links to metropolitan Yorkshire. Surprisingly, the Liberal Democrats and Greens swapped places from this May even though the ward is only marginal between the Conservatives a...

The recent Brazilian Presidential election, where the second round between hard-right populist Jair Bolsonaro from the Social Liberal Party (which in value terms is no longer social liberal at all, ever since Jair became its leader) and socialist Workers' Party candidate Fernando Haddad concluded two weeks after the Chamber of Deputies elections in Brazil, resulted in a decisive victory for Jair Bolsonaro, arguably Brazil's closest answer to Donald Trump. Given the awful comments Jair Bolsonaro has made, his praising of torture and the infamous dictatorial era in Brazil, and his desire to raze the Amazon for development purposes, how did he do it? 1. He played the "anti-establishment" card when he was clearly anything but. In the manner of Donald Trump in 2016, Jair Bolsonaro made hardline and controversial statements to make himself appear fresh compared to the Workers' Party (PT), perceived by some as corrupt and tired, especially after former Presi...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 25 October 2018 were as follows: Ashford BC, Kennington: Conservative 247 (41.5%, -6.7%), Ashford Independents 227 (38.2%, +23.1%), Labour 85 (14.3%, +1.8%), Green 36 (6.1%). [UKIP and Liberal Democrats did not stand] Basingstoke & Deane BC, Norden: Labour 925 (68.2%, +2.6%), Conservative 228 (21.2%, -2.5%), Independent 80 (5.9%), Liberal Democrats 64 (4.7%, -0.2%). Dorset CC, Ferndown: Conservative 1878 (61.3%, -6.8%), Liberal Democrats 647 (21.1%, +10.6%), UKIP 540 (17.6%, +1.3%). [Labour did not stand] East Dorset DC, Ferndown Central: Conservative 899 (59.9%,+5.0%), Liberal Democrats 355 (23.7%), UKIP 246 (16.4%, -11.9%). [Labour did not stand] Hertfordshire CC, Three Rivers Rural: Liberal Democrats 1846 (53.4%, +9.5%), Conservative 1315 (38.4%, -9.0%), Labour 144 (4.2%, -0.1%), UKIP 86 (2.5%, +0.6%), Green 68 (2.0%, -1.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. Mendip DC, Wells St Thomas: Liberal Democrats ...

Today in British time (tomorrow in Australia time) the safely Liberal division of Wentworth in Australia held a by-election, caused by the resignation of former Prime Minister of Australia Malcolm Turnbull. He lost a vote of no confidence two months ago and was replaced by Scott Morrison. Echoing the woes in the Liberal government of Australia, the Wentworth by-election was gained by Independent candidate Kerryn Phelps, a doctor who is also the first LGBTIQA+ person to have been elected president of the Australian Medical Association. She also became the first non-Liberal member for Wentworth in 87 years, and her win pushes Scott's government into minority status, as the Liberal/National Coalition now only has 74 seats in the Australian House of Representatives. How did the Liberals lose one of their safest divisions in Australia? The Liberals' candidate, Dave Sharma, former Australian ambassador to Israel, was no stranger to controversy. During the campaign he had to apo...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 18/10/18 were as follows: Hackney LBC, Victoria: Labour 1311 (57.6%, -11.3%), Liberal Democrats 436 (19.2%, +10.6%), Green 296 (13.0%, -4.0%), Conservative 148 (6.5%, -1.2%), Women's Equality Party 84 (3.7%). Oxfordshire CC, Iffley Fields & St Mary's: Labour 1162 (48.6%, +1.7%), Green 1087 (45.4%, +4.7%), Conservative 100 (4.2%, -1.4%), Liberal Democrats 43 (1.8%, -5.0%). In light of the recent Green surges in Europe, British voters would in theory have been more motivated to vote Green this week. Surprisingly this did not occur, with the Greens achieving a 1.5% swing in their favour in Oxfordshire which was however not enough for them to win the division and return to Oxfordshire County Council, where they had had seats from 1993 to 2017. This was in spite of unofficial tacit Liberal Democrat support for the Greens, hence the Liberal Democrats' sharp decrease in vote share. This division, owing to the high c...

Yesterday saw a treble bill of elections in Europe: Belgium's local elections, the state election in Bavaria, Germany, and the Luxembourg general election. Each of them featured, as widely predicted, a strong surge for that country's Green Party. The Bavarian Green surge was the strongest, with the Greens taking second place in Bavaria, the most conservative state in Germany and once a country in its own right, for the very first time to the ever-dominant Christian Social Union (the more conservative and heavily Roman Catholic Bavarian counterpart to the Christian Democratic Union). At single member constituency level, the Greens won Wurzburg and five out of nine of the direct mandates in Munich, managing as much as 44% in Munchen-Mitte ("Munich Central"). Their vote share more than doubled to 17.5%, and their seat total also more than doubled from 18 to 38. They also came second in the majority of Bavaria's state direct mandates (single member constituencies) t...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last two weeks were as follows: (4/10/18):   Cambridgeshire CC, Soham North & Isleham: Conservative 858 (48.8%, -17.4%), Liberal Democrats 527 (30.0%, +12.5%), Labour 191 (10.9%, -5.5%), Independent 182 (10.4%). Chesterfield BC, Moor: Liberal Democrats 532 (47.1%, +14.0%), Labour 445 (39.4%, -11.3%), Conservative 84 (7.4%, -8.9%),UKIP 69 (6.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour. Hambleton DC, Thirsk: Conservative 679 (65.4%, -0.1%), Labour 251 (24.2%), Yorkshire Party 108 (10.4%). [No independent candidates this time] (11/10/18): Adur DC, Shortlands: Labour 448 (45.9%, +16.9%), Conservative 395 (40.5%, +10.6%), Green 132 (13.5%). Labour gain from UKIP who did not defend the seat; all changes are since 2016. [Liberal Democrats did not stand] Halton UA, Ditton: Labour 644 (73.5%, +11.6%), Conservative 135 (15.4%), Liberal Democrats 97 (11.1%). [No independent candidates this time] Hartlepool UA, Hart: Ind...

Whilst I was at conference, Latvia held its 2018 general election, which resulted in a resounding defeat for its governing coalition. This coalition was one of only a handful ever to be led by an alliance involving a Green Party, namely the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS). However, its Prime Minister, Maris Kucinkis, was a member of the regionalist Liepaja Party (in coalition with ZZS) which advocates for the interests of the port city of Liepaja. Normally when coalition governments lose, the smaller junior partners suffer the heavier losses. However, because the seat numbers in political parties in Baltic states are usually relatively evenly balanced despite a 5% threshold for representation being in place, compared with the ipso facto "red/blue" dominance in Western and Northern Europe, this does not normally happen in Latvia. The leading Unity party lost 15 seats out of 23, giving it just 8, and ZZS dropped from 21 seats to 11, whereas the National Alliance lost on...

The Green Party conference of 2018, held in Bristol (tied with Brighton & Hove and Solihull for highest Green councillor numbers; each has 11 Green councillors), was certainly one of the most important I have known, and contentious at times. From time to time, British political parties have had notable conferences where policy and/or organisation are substantially overhauled to one extent or another. For example, Labour has had the 1981 Wembley Conference, which for a time gave the trade unions extensive powers especially regarding selections of MPs, and was a key factor behind the formation of the SDP later that year. By contrast, their 1995 special conference in Durham which rewrote (some say essentially abolished) the famous Clause IV. In 1991, the Green Party underwent significant organisational changes giving it its current executive body, which this year was the subject of a Holistic Review that was heard at this conference: http://greenholisticreview.co.uk/how-do-the-h...