My analysis of British local by-elections from 25/10/18

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 25 October 2018 were as follows:

Ashford BC, Kennington: Conservative 247 (41.5%, -6.7%), Ashford Independents 227 (38.2%, +23.1%), Labour 85 (14.3%, +1.8%), Green 36 (6.1%). [UKIP and Liberal Democrats did not stand]

Basingstoke & Deane BC, Norden: Labour 925 (68.2%, +2.6%), Conservative 228 (21.2%, -2.5%), Independent 80 (5.9%), Liberal Democrats 64 (4.7%, -0.2%).

Dorset CC, Ferndown: Conservative 1878 (61.3%, -6.8%), Liberal Democrats 647 (21.1%, +10.6%), UKIP 540 (17.6%, +1.3%). [Labour did not stand]

East Dorset DC, Ferndown Central: Conservative 899 (59.9%,+5.0%), Liberal Democrats 355 (23.7%), UKIP 246 (16.4%, -11.9%). [Labour did not stand]

Hertfordshire CC, Three Rivers Rural: Liberal Democrats 1846 (53.4%, +9.5%), Conservative 1315 (38.4%, -9.0%), Labour 144 (4.2%, -0.1%), UKIP 86 (2.5%, +0.6%), Green 68 (2.0%, -1.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

Mendip DC, Wells St Thomas: Liberal Democrats 594 (48.8%, +4.8%), Conservative 493 (40.5%, +5.4%), Labour 131 (10.8%). [Greens did not stand]

North Lanarkshire UA, Coatbridge South (1st preference votes): Labour 1355 (41.5%,+12.0%), SNP 1343 (41.0%, -1.6%), Conservative 492 (15.1%, +3.2%), Green 47 (1.4%), UKIP 14 (0.4%), Liberal Democrats 13 (0.4%). Labour hold at final stage. [No Independent candidates this time]

South Derbyshire DC, Linton: Conservative 623 (63.1%, +21.7%), Labour 316 (32.0%, +2.7%), Liberal Democrats 48 (4.9%, +0.7%). [UKIP did not stand]

Suffolk CC, Bosmere: Conservative 747 (45.5%, -0.5%), Liberal Democrats 726 (44.2%, +5.4%), Labour 168 (10.2%, +2.4%). [Greens did not stand]

Sutton LBC, Belmont: Conservative 1328 (46.7%, -11.5%), Liberal Democrats 1069 (37.6%, +12.3%), Labour 303 (10.7%, -5.8%), Green 63 (2.2%), UKIP 50 (1.8%), Christian Peoples' Alliance 30 (1.1%).

This week featured a large number of ipso facto strictly Conservative-Liberal Democrat contests. The Conservatives lost the key marginal Hertfordshire division of Three Rivers Rural (formerly Chorleywood) but held on by 21 votes in marginal Bosmere, Suffolk. Chorleywood is a key base for affluent London commuters and therefore was much more vulnerable to a Liberal Democrat gain than the village of Bosmere in Suffolk was. Meanwhile in Wells, the lack of a Green candidate indirectly boosted the Liberal Democrats' support in a tight contest. Belmont is the safest Conservative ward in Sutton and was not expected to change hands in this by-election, but the Liberal Democrats managed an 11.9% swing nonetheless even though they slipped back substantially in Sutton in May, which unlike the nearby South West London boroughs of Kingston-upon-Thames and Richmond-upon-Thames voted Leave in 2016, and educational attainment levels are not as high either.

The Conservatives nearly lost in Kennington, Ashford as well to the Ashford Independents due to a general trend in the rise for local independents, combined with the general election turnout boost factor not being present to help the Conservatives; although in 2015 the Conservative vote share in Ashford decreased by 1.7% compared to 2010, the factor still applied to some rural wards. In Ferndown UKIP retained a large proportion of their vote; this is partly due to Ferndown having an elderly population with 40% of its population being aged over 65. UKIP's lack of candidature resulted in the only sharp increase in the Conservative vote this week, in South Derbyshire where many UKIP supporters were former Labour voters and where the population is, if not to the extent of North East Derbyshire, populated by middle-income commuters. And finally in North Lanarkshire, anti-nationalist transfers helped Labour hold in a key Clydeside Labour-SNP battleground, especially from those who had voted for the Independent Alliance in 2017 (they did not field a candidate this time).

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