Alan's Green Thoughts

Readers, devolution in England part by part is once again in the spotlight. Firstly, Greater Manchester, and all 10 councils that fall into its area (Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford and Wigan) is having an executive mayor imposed on it, even after the people of Manchester voted against having an elected mayor back in 2012, and without the consent of the electors within Greater Manchester. Only one of the ten boroughs in Greater Manchester, Salford, voted to have an elected mayor, and the turnout in that referendum was a dreadful 18%. The cities and boroughs whose people voted against having elected mayors (instead of council leaders) in 2012 had good reason to reject the idea: in Britain, directly elected mayors can just by themselves appoint a cabinet tailored to their own personal whim, and this cabinet is more likely to represent that mayor's interests (and corporate interests whom that mayor is friendly with) than those of

Over the past year, readers, you may have been paying attention to polls released by Michael Ashcroft, aka Lord Ashcroft. I have as well, sometimes, although it is only know that I will be analysing these recent Ashcroft polls (i.e. polls conducted within the last six months, in which the Green Party has been steadily rising in support, where the gap between Conservatives and Labour has been closing, and where the Liberal Democrats' support is reaching its nadir and not getting any lower overall) to give my thoughts. 1. The Green Party is taking votes from the Liberal Democrats-but their level of strength varies quite widely in constituencies the Liberal Democrats hold or have strength in. Why? Analysis of Con-LD marginals, LD-Lab marginals, and three way marginals (rather rare) by Ashcroft polls shows that in south west seats, especially those that have a latent 'green' nature (St Ives, for example). the Liberal Democrat vote is shifting reasonably well to the Green

Yesterday, readers, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, notable for his economic stance of 'Abenomics', called an early general election in Japan, despite the fact that the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP), which has held power in Japan for most of the last 60 years, was losing ground in the polls. However, as in 2012, he and the LDP won another landslide victory, with 290 seats out of 475, including three-quarters of the FPTP seats. (Japan uses the Mixed Member Proportional voting system for its House of Representatives, but there are 295 FPTP seats and only 180 PR seats). Even though the main opposition party there, the Democratic Party of Japan (which like Labour in the UK is not really that much of an opposition at all), gained an extra 16 seats compared to 2012, its leader, Banri Kaieda, ended up losing his own seat. I believe this can partly be blamed on the rise of the Japanese Communist Party, which increased its seats from 8 to 21, its best result since 2000.

Readers, the results from local by-elections yesterday featuring Green Party candidates were as follows (in case you missed them): Aylesbury DC, Gatehouse: Liberal Democrat 295 (35.6%, -5.9%), UKIP 267 (32.2%, +15.2%), Conservative 113 (13.6%, -9.2%), Labour 113 (13.6%,-5.0%), Green 28 (3.4%), Independent 12 (1.4%) Aylesbury DC, Southcourt: Lib Dem 429 (42.3%, +6.3%), UKIP 266 (26.2%, +12.1%), Lab 175 (17.2%, -12.2%), Con 112 (11.0%, -9.4%), Green 33 (3.3%). Lib Dem gain from Labour. Moray UA, Elgin City North: (1st preference votes) SNP 728 (38.0%, -5.3%), Independent 472 (24.6%), Lab 287 (15.0%, -14.9%), Con 273 (14.2%, -3.2%), UKIP 81 (4.2%), Green 77 (4.0%). SNP gain from Labour. Sunderland MBC, Washington East: Lab 775 (38.3%, -3.0%), Con 595 (29.4%, +4.2%), UKIP 506 (25.0%, -1.1%), Green 93 (4.6%), Lib Dem 52 (2.6%). [All changes are since 2014] Despite the fact polls show that the Green Party will win more voters from the Liberal Democrats than the other major parties

Readers, it is almost the end of the calendar year, and several important general elections in Europe are coming up next year, in Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, and of course the United Kingdom. (There will also be early elections in Sweden next year following a government defeat on a budget vote). The Green Party of England and Wales, I am pleased to say, is still experiencing a good influx of members; GPEW now has nearly 30,000 members and counting. I believe that Green Party membership across the UK (which also includes the Scottish Green Party and the Green Party of Northern Ireland) will overtake that of both UKIP and the Liberal Democrats by May 2015, when our next general election will take place. GPEW is also still performing well at 6% in national polls on average over the last four weeks. Meanwhile, let us check how Green and left-wing parties are polling at the moment in the countries I mentioned above: Denmark: Socialist Folkeparti (G/EFA): 7

Readers, only one local by-election from this week featured a Green Party candidate, and the results of it were as follows: Adur DC, St. Mary's: Conservative 340 (38.4%, +1.3%), Labour 223 (25.2%, +2.6%), UKIP 216 (24.4%, +3.2%), Green 106 (12.0%, -0.7%). All changes are since 2014. Two days ago, former Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe, the last pre-Thatcher leader of any major British political party, died aged 85, having suffered from early onset Parkinson's disease for  30 years. He famously helped the Liberals rise to prominence in the February 1974 general election, polling six million votes and 14 seats, but is infamously remembered for the 'Rinkagate' scandal, involving Norman Scott and his dog, Rinka. Throughout recent history, there has been much speculation about the facts and rumours behind the Rinkagate affair of 1976, which caused Jeremy to resign as Liberal leader the same year. I myself wonder this, however-did Conservative allies engineer the quick 

Just Appreciate Our Differences (a poem about the importance of respecting diversity, and especially people with disabilities): My fellow humans, Just listen around you, Just look around you, Wherever you are. We are not all the same, But why should we let Difference and diversity Set us humans apart? I am different, I act different, But you cannot always see that. You think I might be faking it, You think it does not matter. We all have our struggles, Our paths, our quests, I do as well, but they are more difficult, I never chose to have a disability, People never choose to acquire mental illness, But still some of you and the media, Want our heads on a platter. We try to work, we try to help you, Despite what we have to overcome, But too often you fail to appreciate me Or what I can bring to you and our world. But I know you can all be compassionate, When not being influenced by harmful media Or by soulless corporations, There may be things I find mor

On BBC news, Professor Stephen Hawking warned that AI (artificial intelligence) could, if it advanced far enough, ultimately spell the end of the human race. I believe Professor Hawking has an important point-we are already seeing the potential dangers of AI in unmanned drone warfare as well as science fiction. And although Channel Four's new comedy, 'Bad Robots' (where automated machines are used to prank members of the public in various ways in the same way Fonejacker and Facejacker once did), is supposed to just frustrate its victims (and amuse its audience), it could be potentially a warning of what will come next in terms of AI-human interaction. And machines and robots have already deprived so many people of their jobs, especially over the last three decades of neoliberal capitalism, even if there need to be humans around to maintain the machines. How did we become so attached to machines, even though we are often as frustrated by them as we are pleased by them?

Readers, with the Liberal Democrats in such decline after their many betrayals, suck-ups to the Conservative Party, and failure to uphold their values, it is no wonder that in many local by-elections, local elections, and parliamentary by-elections, they have been bettered in polls by such a wide variety of different candidates. The Green Party is now regularly bettering the Liberal Democrats in many polls, on that note. Here is a list of minor party (the major parties other than the Lib Dems are the Conservatives, the Greens, Labour, and UKIP; the SNP and Plaid Cymru are also major parties in Scottish- and Welsh-related contexts respectively) and independent candidates who have beaten the Lib Dems over the span of the Con-Dem government's time (which is due to expire soon next year): Parliamentary by-elections 2011, Barnsley Central: BNP and Independent Tony Devoy. 2012, Bradford West: Respect MP George Galloway. 2012, Rotherham: BNP, Respect, English Democrats and Indep