Victoria state election 2018: Andrews auspiciously gallops over Guy
"Oppositions don't win elections-governments lose them." -Political adage.
In the Victoria state election of 2018, the odds were in Labor's favour over the Liberals right from the start-but they beat expectations nonetheless and achieved a landslide majority of 30 in an 88 seat state parliament. It was earlier believed that due to Green advances in inner Melbourne electorates, helped by favourable demogfraphic change, that far from winning an easy majority Labor might possibly have to rely on the Greens for confidence and supply.
The Liberal/National Coalition, led by Matthew Guy, campaigned heavily on law & order issues and the need to shift Melbourne's rapidly growing population more to its outlying satellite towns and rural areas, but Labor under current Premier Daniel Andrews was doing well throughout the 2014-18 Victoria Parliament, meaning that it was on course to victory throughout the campaign whether or not it would fall short of an overall majority. The Liberals, still beset by the internal turmoil in the national party that led to Scott Morrison replacing Malcolm Turnbul as Australian PM in August, lost a total of 12 electorates with Hawthorn being their most notable loss, as Shadow Attorney-General John Pesutto was tipped to succeed Matthew Guy as leader of Victoria's Liberals. Malvern, the safest Liberal electorate in Victoria, experienced a 10.6% swing to Labor although with the Liberal majority already so high it was nevertheless held by the Liberals. The Nationals, meanwhile, faced in the absenceof any prospect of a Labor win strong challenges from Independents, Ali Cupper and ex-National Russell Northe, who won the electorates of Mildura and Morwell respectively. Russell Northe had resigned from the Nationals over mental health and gambling problems, but this did not stop him holding his seat as an Independent due to favourable anti-Coalition preference flows.
Despite high hopes, the Greens suffered relative disappointment in this election, despite Victoria being the Australian Greens' strongest state in Australia overall. Their vote dropped from 11.4% to 10.7%, and although Tim Read narrowly won Brunswick in the end and current Green AMs Ellen Sandell and Sam Hibbins held the electorates of Melbourne and Prahran respectively, Northcote by-election winner Lidia Thorpe was narrowly unable to retain her seat and they finish third in Albert Park. The absence of a Liberal candidate in Richmond proved to be of no help to Kathleen Maltzahn; there was in fact a 5.9% swing to Labor from the Greens in Richmond. Their campaign was beset by some candidate problems, most notably relating to Angus MacAlpine (who faced criticism over offensive rap lyrics he had written in the past, for which he apologised) and Dominic Phillips (who was disendorsed over sexual misconduct allegations), but also rising support for the Animal Justice Party is cutting into the Greens' support in Australia. The Australian AJP's best result came in Footscray, the same electorate where Angus MacAlpine was standing, and achieved 1.6% of the vote statewide despite standing in less than half of Victoria's electorates.
It was the Legislative Council (Victoria's upper house) which featured the most political excitement, however, since Labor won 19 seats nearly giving them overall control of the Legislative Council, even though it uses Single Transferable Vote not Alternative Vote. The Liberals meanwhile dropped to 9 seats, and the Greens only retained only one Victorian Legislative Council seat, that of their leader Samantha Ratnam. The Nationals were also left with just a single MLC in Victoria, Melina Bath. Although the law and order campaigning failed to win for the Liberals, Derryn Hinch's Justice Party did benefit from it, winning 4 Legislative Council seats, especially in poorer and rapidly growing areas of Melbourne where crime rates are higher. Increasing transport congestion problems,meanwhile, helped the Transport Matters Party, started by former and current taxi drivers gain two Legislative Council seats. The libertarian Liberal Democrats, the right-wing populist Aussie Battler Party, the Sustainable Australia Party, and the Animal Justice Party also entered the Legislative Council; the latter two notably gained at the Greens' expense despite only achieving first preference votes of 2.4% and 0.8% across Victoria at all.
The next Australian federal election has to take place within no more than 11 months from now, and this result could subsequently lead to significant Green setbacks in said next federal election, since the majority of their best chances of securing extra representation in the House of Representatives are in Victoria. In addition five key Liberal marginal divisions (one of which,Dunkley, has become notionally Labor post-redistribution) lie in Victoria, making this the state to watch at the 2019 Australian federal election.
UPDATE: Amended due to final results now being available for this election. Vote counts can take up to two weeks to complete in Australian state and federal elections.
In the Victoria state election of 2018, the odds were in Labor's favour over the Liberals right from the start-but they beat expectations nonetheless and achieved a landslide majority of 30 in an 88 seat state parliament. It was earlier believed that due to Green advances in inner Melbourne electorates, helped by favourable demogfraphic change, that far from winning an easy majority Labor might possibly have to rely on the Greens for confidence and supply.
The Liberal/National Coalition, led by Matthew Guy, campaigned heavily on law & order issues and the need to shift Melbourne's rapidly growing population more to its outlying satellite towns and rural areas, but Labor under current Premier Daniel Andrews was doing well throughout the 2014-18 Victoria Parliament, meaning that it was on course to victory throughout the campaign whether or not it would fall short of an overall majority. The Liberals, still beset by the internal turmoil in the national party that led to Scott Morrison replacing Malcolm Turnbul as Australian PM in August, lost a total of 12 electorates with Hawthorn being their most notable loss, as Shadow Attorney-General John Pesutto was tipped to succeed Matthew Guy as leader of Victoria's Liberals. Malvern, the safest Liberal electorate in Victoria, experienced a 10.6% swing to Labor although with the Liberal majority already so high it was nevertheless held by the Liberals. The Nationals, meanwhile, faced in the absenceof any prospect of a Labor win strong challenges from Independents, Ali Cupper and ex-National Russell Northe, who won the electorates of Mildura and Morwell respectively. Russell Northe had resigned from the Nationals over mental health and gambling problems, but this did not stop him holding his seat as an Independent due to favourable anti-Coalition preference flows.
Despite high hopes, the Greens suffered relative disappointment in this election, despite Victoria being the Australian Greens' strongest state in Australia overall. Their vote dropped from 11.4% to 10.7%, and although Tim Read narrowly won Brunswick in the end and current Green AMs Ellen Sandell and Sam Hibbins held the electorates of Melbourne and Prahran respectively, Northcote by-election winner Lidia Thorpe was narrowly unable to retain her seat and they finish third in Albert Park. The absence of a Liberal candidate in Richmond proved to be of no help to Kathleen Maltzahn; there was in fact a 5.9% swing to Labor from the Greens in Richmond. Their campaign was beset by some candidate problems, most notably relating to Angus MacAlpine (who faced criticism over offensive rap lyrics he had written in the past, for which he apologised) and Dominic Phillips (who was disendorsed over sexual misconduct allegations), but also rising support for the Animal Justice Party is cutting into the Greens' support in Australia. The Australian AJP's best result came in Footscray, the same electorate where Angus MacAlpine was standing, and achieved 1.6% of the vote statewide despite standing in less than half of Victoria's electorates.
It was the Legislative Council (Victoria's upper house) which featured the most political excitement, however, since Labor won 19 seats nearly giving them overall control of the Legislative Council, even though it uses Single Transferable Vote not Alternative Vote. The Liberals meanwhile dropped to 9 seats, and the Greens only retained only one Victorian Legislative Council seat, that of their leader Samantha Ratnam. The Nationals were also left with just a single MLC in Victoria, Melina Bath. Although the law and order campaigning failed to win for the Liberals, Derryn Hinch's Justice Party did benefit from it, winning 4 Legislative Council seats, especially in poorer and rapidly growing areas of Melbourne where crime rates are higher. Increasing transport congestion problems,meanwhile, helped the Transport Matters Party, started by former and current taxi drivers gain two Legislative Council seats. The libertarian Liberal Democrats, the right-wing populist Aussie Battler Party, the Sustainable Australia Party, and the Animal Justice Party also entered the Legislative Council; the latter two notably gained at the Greens' expense despite only achieving first preference votes of 2.4% and 0.8% across Victoria at all.
The next Australian federal election has to take place within no more than 11 months from now, and this result could subsequently lead to significant Green setbacks in said next federal election, since the majority of their best chances of securing extra representation in the House of Representatives are in Victoria. In addition five key Liberal marginal divisions (one of which,Dunkley, has become notionally Labor post-redistribution) lie in Victoria, making this the state to watch at the 2019 Australian federal election.
UPDATE: Amended due to final results now being available for this election. Vote counts can take up to two weeks to complete in Australian state and federal elections.
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