My analysis of local by-elections from 15/10/18 and why we need a People's Vote not a poor Brexit deal
Readers, the results from British local by-elections of this week were as follows:
Bassetlaw DC, East Retford West: Labour 441 (49.9%, +14.1%), Conservative 296 (33.5%, +4.2%), Liberal Democrats 146 (16.5%, +3.4%). [UKIP did not stand]
Kent CC, Canterbury North: Conservative 1355 (42.3%, -12.3%), Liberal Democrats 756 (23.6%, +7.1%), Labour 660 (20.6%, +4.1%), Green 157 (4.9%, -1.9%), Independent 155 (4.8%), UKIP 120 (3.7%, -1.9%).
Oxfordshire CC, Grove & Wantage: Liberal Democrats 1925 (47.9%, +2.4%), Conservative 1447 (36.0%, -0.9%), Labour 459 (11.4%, +2.7%), Green 185 (4.6%, -4.1%).
Stroud DC, Dursley: Labour 889 (50.5%, +15.2%), Conservative 704 (40.0%, +15.4%), Green 90 (5.1%, -9.8%), Liberal Democrats 79 (4.5%, -20.7%).
Bassetlaw has been trending towards the Conservatives recently, like many ex-mining districts in England, with the constituency of Bassetlaw turning up the lowest Labour majority since 1983 in last year's general election. However, in towns as opposed to villages, UKIP's absence is proving more helpful to Labour than to the Conservatives, as shown in this by-election.
The recent Brexit deal has pleased few people in Britain, with hardline Brexiteers preferring even a no deal Brexit to the draft deal, and with as much as 64% of the public now supporting a "People's Vote" on the deal in some polls. Despite this, the swing in Grove & Wantage was only 1.7%, partly due to it being reliably Liberal Democrat already and the pro-European strength already being high. The rural division of Canterbury North, which also includes the main campus of the University of Kent, was a different story and saw a 9.7% swing to the Liberal Democrats, which was nevertheless nowhere near enough to win the very safe Conservative division. The rise in the Labour vote can be attributed to the growing student body of Canterbury, one of the most left-wing amongst British university campuses.
The highly competitive ward of Dursley in Stroud saw substantial increases for both Labour and the Conservatives due to the Liberal Democrat vote splintering between them, which had been built up by the late Brian Marshall when he had been a Liberal Democrat councillor in Dursley. Stroud is one of the most green-minded districts in Britain (big G and small g) but Dursley's Green vote has never been on the same level as Stroud itself, and like the Liberal Democrats they were squeezed heavily by the Lab-Con competition.
Two days ago, the draft Brexit deal, which will be laid before Parliament soon, was released and it is a bad deal. It deprives British citizens of important freedom of movement rights within the EU, and it makes Britain still subject to some problematic EU laws without any useful trade-offs in return. What is instead needed is a People's Vote in Britain to give the British public a second chance to stay in the European Union, especially given the illegal overspending and lies used by the Leave side in the 2016 referendum and the damage it has caused to Britain as a whole.
Bassetlaw DC, East Retford West: Labour 441 (49.9%, +14.1%), Conservative 296 (33.5%, +4.2%), Liberal Democrats 146 (16.5%, +3.4%). [UKIP did not stand]
Kent CC, Canterbury North: Conservative 1355 (42.3%, -12.3%), Liberal Democrats 756 (23.6%, +7.1%), Labour 660 (20.6%, +4.1%), Green 157 (4.9%, -1.9%), Independent 155 (4.8%), UKIP 120 (3.7%, -1.9%).
Oxfordshire CC, Grove & Wantage: Liberal Democrats 1925 (47.9%, +2.4%), Conservative 1447 (36.0%, -0.9%), Labour 459 (11.4%, +2.7%), Green 185 (4.6%, -4.1%).
Stroud DC, Dursley: Labour 889 (50.5%, +15.2%), Conservative 704 (40.0%, +15.4%), Green 90 (5.1%, -9.8%), Liberal Democrats 79 (4.5%, -20.7%).
Bassetlaw has been trending towards the Conservatives recently, like many ex-mining districts in England, with the constituency of Bassetlaw turning up the lowest Labour majority since 1983 in last year's general election. However, in towns as opposed to villages, UKIP's absence is proving more helpful to Labour than to the Conservatives, as shown in this by-election.
The recent Brexit deal has pleased few people in Britain, with hardline Brexiteers preferring even a no deal Brexit to the draft deal, and with as much as 64% of the public now supporting a "People's Vote" on the deal in some polls. Despite this, the swing in Grove & Wantage was only 1.7%, partly due to it being reliably Liberal Democrat already and the pro-European strength already being high. The rural division of Canterbury North, which also includes the main campus of the University of Kent, was a different story and saw a 9.7% swing to the Liberal Democrats, which was nevertheless nowhere near enough to win the very safe Conservative division. The rise in the Labour vote can be attributed to the growing student body of Canterbury, one of the most left-wing amongst British university campuses.
The highly competitive ward of Dursley in Stroud saw substantial increases for both Labour and the Conservatives due to the Liberal Democrat vote splintering between them, which had been built up by the late Brian Marshall when he had been a Liberal Democrat councillor in Dursley. Stroud is one of the most green-minded districts in Britain (big G and small g) but Dursley's Green vote has never been on the same level as Stroud itself, and like the Liberal Democrats they were squeezed heavily by the Lab-Con competition.
Two days ago, the draft Brexit deal, which will be laid before Parliament soon, was released and it is a bad deal. It deprives British citizens of important freedom of movement rights within the EU, and it makes Britain still subject to some problematic EU laws without any useful trade-offs in return. What is instead needed is a People's Vote in Britain to give the British public a second chance to stay in the European Union, especially given the illegal overspending and lies used by the Leave side in the 2016 referendum and the damage it has caused to Britain as a whole.
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