On the Hessian state election of 2018
Six days ago (I apologise for the delay; it happened due to the amount of time needed for the report on the Brazilian elections and my postgraduate politics studies at Keele University), Hesse held its state election, which, if not to the extent of Bavaria (Bayern) two weeks ago, experienced a Green surge with the Greens finishing second, narrowly ahead of the Social Democrats (SPD).
The Greens managed to poll 19.8%, which whilst not quite as good as polls initially expected is the best ever Green result achieved in Hesse. They won a total of 29 seats, more than doubling their 2013 total, which included as many as five single member constituencies for the first time ever at Land level in Hesse; normally the size of the SMCs at state and federal level in Germany makes it very difficult for them to be won by parties other than the CDU and SPD. Just as in Bavaria, the CDU and SPD suffered substantial losses, with the CDU dropping to 40 seats and just 27% of the vote; even though they still finished first this is the worst ever CDU result in Hesse. The SPD, meanwhile, dropped to 29 seats and finished third for the first time ever in Hesse, securing just under 19.8% of the vote. Like in Bavaria, the governing parties were punished severely, and more importantly Angela Merkel has announced she will not be continuing as Chancellor of Germany after 2021 in light of this latest defeat.
The smaller parties benefitted from dissatisfaction with the current grand coaition government, with AfD entering the Hessian Landtag for the first time with 13.1% of the vote and 19 seats, notable since Hesse is not as socially conservative as Bavaria, although neither is it as prosperous despite Frankfurt am Main being a key banking city. The Free Democrats, who in 2013 only narrowly retained representation, increased their vote share to 7.5%, increasing their seat total to 11, and even in light of the Green surge, Die Linke increased their seat total to 9 with 6.3% of the vote. However, the Freie Wahler, lacking the support and organisation they have in Bavaria, only managed 3% of the vote and thus did not win any seats, with many of their potential voters going to AfD instead. All other parties polled 1% of the vote or less apiece, with the Animal Welfare Party (Tierschutzpartei) making no real impact on the Green vote.
This result also means that the Greens can oust the usually dominant CDU and therefore potentially elect a second Minister-President of a Landtag, since a traffic light coalition between them, the SPD, and the FDP would have just enough seats (69) to govern.
The Greens managed to poll 19.8%, which whilst not quite as good as polls initially expected is the best ever Green result achieved in Hesse. They won a total of 29 seats, more than doubling their 2013 total, which included as many as five single member constituencies for the first time ever at Land level in Hesse; normally the size of the SMCs at state and federal level in Germany makes it very difficult for them to be won by parties other than the CDU and SPD. Just as in Bavaria, the CDU and SPD suffered substantial losses, with the CDU dropping to 40 seats and just 27% of the vote; even though they still finished first this is the worst ever CDU result in Hesse. The SPD, meanwhile, dropped to 29 seats and finished third for the first time ever in Hesse, securing just under 19.8% of the vote. Like in Bavaria, the governing parties were punished severely, and more importantly Angela Merkel has announced she will not be continuing as Chancellor of Germany after 2021 in light of this latest defeat.
The smaller parties benefitted from dissatisfaction with the current grand coaition government, with AfD entering the Hessian Landtag for the first time with 13.1% of the vote and 19 seats, notable since Hesse is not as socially conservative as Bavaria, although neither is it as prosperous despite Frankfurt am Main being a key banking city. The Free Democrats, who in 2013 only narrowly retained representation, increased their vote share to 7.5%, increasing their seat total to 11, and even in light of the Green surge, Die Linke increased their seat total to 9 with 6.3% of the vote. However, the Freie Wahler, lacking the support and organisation they have in Bavaria, only managed 3% of the vote and thus did not win any seats, with many of their potential voters going to AfD instead. All other parties polled 1% of the vote or less apiece, with the Animal Welfare Party (Tierschutzpartei) making no real impact on the Green vote.
This result also means that the Greens can oust the usually dominant CDU and therefore potentially elect a second Minister-President of a Landtag, since a traffic light coalition between them, the SPD, and the FDP would have just enough seats (69) to govern.
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