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My analysis of British local by-elections in the first three weeks of January 2022 and also the Barbados general election of 2022

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first three weeks of January 2022 were as follows: (06/01/2022): Gedling DC, Cavendish: Liberal Democrats 344 (35.1%, +15.5%), Labour 303 (30.9%, -25.7%), Conservative 250 (25.5%, +1.8%), Fran Loi 56 (5.7%), Green 26 (2.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour. (13/01/2022): Wychavon DC, The Littletons: Green 291 (39.1%, -6.3%), Conservative 274 (36.8%, -17.8%), Liberal Democrats 179 (24.1%). Green gain from Conservative. (20/01/2022): Charnwood DC, Loughborough Skelthorpe (double by-election): Labour 709/654 (50.3%, +16.9%), Conservative 311 (22.9%, +1.2%), Independent (Hayes)* 149 (11.0%), Liberal Democrats 136/104 (8.8%, -1.2%), Green 108/81 (7.0%, -7.6%).  East Lindsey DC, Chapel St Leonards: Conservative 436 (62.0%, -4.2%), Independent (Fenton) 267 (38.0%). East Lothian UA, Preston, Seton & Gosford (1st preference votes): Labour 1,793 (38.5%, -4.2%), SNP 1,217 (26.2%, -1.4%), Conservative 1,154 (24.8%, +0.7%), Green 2

My predictions for British council elections in 2022

  It is that time again-to predict which councils in Britain will or could change control this May. And this year there is a lot of re-warding, particularly for every unitary authority in Wales and the majority of London boroughs. Since the story of lockdown parties surfaced last month, the Conservatives' poll ratings have been nosediving, and Labour have overtaken them for the first time in 7 years. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats are still struggling even after that spectacular win of North Shropshire, and the Greens are doing better than ever. In Scotland, the SNP are still riding high but Plaid Cymru is struggling to make headway in Wales. So which councils could change hands this year, based not only on this news but also local circumstances? My predictions (for those councils with a reasonable chance of changing hands this May): Conservative hold: Amber Valley, Basildon, Gosport, Huntingdonshire, Walsall. Conservative lose to NOC (No Overall Control): Barnet, Maidstone, Worce

Coming up in 2022...

Welcome to 2022, readers, which we should all hope is a much better and freer year than the last, not only in Britain but elsewhere across the world.  Political events to watch out for in 2022: 1. The French presidential election-how much has the shine really worn off Emmanuel Macron? 2. A snap election in Portugal, where Antonia Costa's coalition is standing on shaky ground. Will it hold on against the odds? 3. Can a big tent liberal-progressive-traditional conservative coalition finally oust Viktor Orban from the post of Hungarian PM? 4. Will the Republican advance be pushed back in the first set of US midterm elections in President Joe Biden's tenure? 5. The United Kingdom local elections-and Greater London's councils could see a substantial shake up with so many new ward boundaries for said councils (all borough councils in Greater London that did not have ward boundary changes in 2014 or 2018 will have them for this May). We also wave goodbye to three more county counc

My analysis of British local by-elections from 16 and 23 December 2021 and my Christmas message

  Normally, I would have posted my Christmas message for the year two days earlier and taken a break until the New Year. But because a local by-election occurred on 23 December, I could not do so. The results of British local by-elections from 16 December and 23 December 2021 were as follows: (16/12/21): Argyll & Bute UA, Lomond North (1st preference votes): Conservative 742 (40.7%, +11.3%), SNP 459 (25.2%, +5.0%), Independent (Irvine) 418 (22.9%), Independent (Macintyre) 204 (11.2%, +0.5%). Conservative hold at stage 3. [Labour, Liberal Democrats and other Independents did not stand] Ashford DC, Highfield: Green 191 (40.0%, +21.2%), Conservative 163 (34.1%, -7.0%), Ashford Independent 101 (21.1%, -7.4%), Labour 23 (4.8%). Green gain from Conservative. [Liberal Democrats did not stand] Bridgend UA, Caerau: Independent (Davies) 515 (48.8%), Labour 441 (41.8%, -7.1%), Plaid Cymru 82 (7.1%), Conservative 18 (1.7%). Independent gain from Labour. [Other Independents did not stand] Horsh

Could the North Shropshire by-election result mark the end of Boris Johnson's tenure in No. 10?

  Readers, the result of the North Shropshire by-election, caused by the resignation of Owen Paterson during the sleaze/second jobs scandal, was as follows: Suzie Akers-Smith, Independent, 95 (0.3%) Andrea Allen, UKIP, 378 (1.0%) Boris Been-Bunged, Rejoin EU, 58 (0.2%) Martin Daubney, Reclaim Party, 375 (1.0%) Russell Dean, Party Party, 19 (0.0%) James Elliot, Heritage Party, 79 (0.2%) Alan "Howling Laud" Hope, OMRLP, 118 (0.3%) Earl Jesse, Freedom Alliance, 57 (0.2%) Yolande Kenward, 3 (0.0%) Duncan Kerr, Green Party, 1,738 (4.6%, +1.4%) Helen Morgan, Liberal Democrats, 17,957 (47.2%, +37.2%) Neil Shastri-Hurst, Conservative, 12,032 (31.6%, -31.1%) Kirsty Walmsley, Reform UK, 1,427 (3.8%) Ben Wood, Labour, 3,686 (9.7%, -12.4%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative. The swing of 34.2% from Conservative to the Liberal Democrats that Helen Morgan managed is only 1.1% lower than the Liberal Democrats' record of a 35.3% swing in the Christchurch by-election of 1993, and thi

My analysis of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of December 2021

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of December 2021 were as follows: (NB: I postponed my coverage of the 2nd December local by-elections to write a feature piece on the Old Bexley & Sidcup parliamentary by-election) (2/12/21): Adur DC, Hillside: Conservative 414 (56.2%, -6.3%), Green 175 (23.7%, +17.1%), Labour 148 (20.1%, -7.7%). All changes are since May 2018. Breckland DC, Hermitage: Conservative 243 (45.0%, -26.3%), Liberal Democrats 221 (40.9%), Labour 66 (12.2%, -16.5%), Workers Party 10 (1.9%). Highland UA, Fort William & Ardamurchan (1st preference votes): SNP 905 (39.6%, +6.7%), Conservative 485 (21.2%, +8.5%), Green 328 (14.3%), Liberal Democrats 231 (10.1%, +5.5%), Independent (McKenna) 194 (8.5%), Independent (Mathieson) 88 (3.8%, -0.4%), Mark Drayton 56 (2.4%). Lancaster DC, Bare: Liberal Democrats 428 (33.1%, +24.6%), Green 301 (23.3%, +16.2%), Morecambe Bay Independents 243 (18.8%, -13.9%), Conservative 215 (16.6%, -13.2

My analysis of the Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election

  Readers, the votes cast in the Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election were as follows: Elaine Cheeseman, English Democrats, 271 (1.3%) Daniel Francis, Labour, 6,711 (30.9%, +7.4%) Louie French, Conservative, 11,189 (51.5%, -13.1%) Richard Hewison, Rejoin EU, 151 (0.7%) David Kurten, Heritage Party, 116 (0.5%) John Poynton, UKIP, 184 (0.8%) Simone Reynolds, Liberal Democrats, 647 (3.0%, -5.3%) Jonathan Rooks, Green Party, 830 (3.8%, +0.6%) Richard Tice, Reform UK, 1,432 (6.6%) Carol Valinejad, Christian Peoples' Alliance, 108 (0.5%, +0.0%) Mad Mike Young, OMRLP., 94 (0.4%) Conservative HOLD. This by-election was essentially a foregone conclusion, especially since there have been only four by-elections where Labour have equalled or exceeded the 20.6% swing they would have needed to win this seat, and three of those were during Sir John Major's tenure as Prime Minister, when the Conservatives lost all eight of the by-elections where they were the  defending party, and were pushed i