Alan's Green Thoughts

  It has taken me a while to get around to this, unfortunately, but in terms of election predictions the Scottish Parliament and the Senedd in Wales must not be overlooked. In particular, the Senedd's switch from a Mixed Member Proportional system (40 single member constituencies, 20 list seats with 4 per region) to a closed list proportional representation system (96 seats, with election by 16 6-member constituencies) will result in a radical shake-up of the Senedd, especially with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK currently fighting to top the poll in Wales and Labour predicted to finish no better than 3rd, and possibly even 4th. Even with the shine coming off Reform UK in Wales just like in England and Scotland, Plaid Cymru is not guaranteed to top the poll because its appeal in English-speaking areas will always be somewhat limited by its key raison d'etre, even though it will undoubtedly win over more Labour voters than Reform UK will across Wales with the exception of Flintshire ...

This year, local elections are more unpredictable in Britain than ever before, especially with the the 29 district and borough councils whose elections were initially going to be postponed owing to local government reorganisation in those areas (which will convert all remaining 2-tier counties into 1 or more unitary authorities, thus ending the 2-tier system across the UK entirely), now in fact holding these elections on 7th May as planned; the postponements were rescinded in February following a legal challenge by Reform UK. Nevertheless, with local government reorganisation continuing its course with 2 new unitaries emerging as a result of said reorganisation (East and West Surrey) holding elections next month, this will be the final election for many authorities in the UK. The election map will also become more colourful with not only the Greens and Reform set to win record numbers of seats, but also other minor parties emerging, mainly at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives...

In what will likely be the last ever county council elections in the UK- the plan towards unitarisation of remaining 2-tier county councils is still in motion - there was a historic sea change. This came, first and foremost, in the Conservative Party- the traditionally dominant party of the shire counties - losing control of every single council it won control of in 2021; even in wealthy Buckinghamshire they failed to obtain overall control, if only by 1 seat, and in Buckinghamshire they did not poll 50% or above in any division, not even Beaconsfield or Gerrards Cross & Denham where detached houses with seven-figure values are the norm rather than the exception, and the only other council where they remained the largest party was Northumberland. The post-COVID bounce they experienced in 2021 when Boris Johnson was Prime Minister more than unravelled - in County Durham they only held 1 seat and in some councils, even those where they have been in control more often than not since t...

  This year's local elections in England are particularly notable since due to upcoming local government reorganisation, these elections will, if said reorganisation proceeds as planned, will be the last ever county council elections under the current two-tier system of local government, as introduced by the Local Government Act 1972.  Since 2007, many former county councils have already been replaced by one or more unitary authorities, and the remaining two-tier councils of Cambridgeshire, Derbyshire, Devon, East Sussex, Essex, Gloucestershire, Hampshire, Hertfordshire, Kent, Lancashire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Nottinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Staffordshire, Suffolk, Surrey, Warwickshire, West Sussex and Worcestershire are set to follow suit by 2028, and some extant unitary authorities will likely be absorbed in the process. In fact, county council elections in East Sussex, Essex, Hampshire, Norfolk, Suffolk, Surrey and West Sussex that were due to take place this...

All things considered, what are the top five conclusions that can be drawn from the results of the 2024 United Kingdom general election? 1. The British electoral and political system is at breaking point and needs to be reformed, fast. This election, according to the Gallagher Index of proportionality, was the most disproportional in the history of British suffrage, and reminiscent of the fragmentation New Zealand's Parliament underwent in the mid-1990s which caused it to eventually switch to (mixed member) proportional representation for its legislative elections, which it first used in 1996 and has used ever since. Britain is becoming a true multiparty state slowly but surely, with both Labour and the Conservatives not only having reached the lowest combined vote since 1922, but also the lowest combined number of seats at 533 (counting the Speaker as Labour). For the first time ever in England, there are as many as 5 parties with more than 1 seat apiece, and 6 colours of rosettes...

The 2024 United Kingdom general election proved just as remarkable in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as it did in England. In Scotland, the SNP's drubbing was one of the main undersold stories of this election; in light of scandals that led to the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon and Scottish independence looking like a more distant prospect, especially with Scottish voters more concerned about the cost-of-living crisis like everywhere else in the UK, the SNP dropped from 47 seats (notionally) to just 9, and more importantly they did not win any seats south of the River Tay, being driven back to the Highlands and north-eastern Scotland where prior to the SNP's shift towards social democracy their strongest bases used to be (before the 2015, the majority of SNP seats in Westminster were north of the River Tay). In some seats anti-SNP swings exceeded 20%, with one particularly outspoken SNP MP, Joanna Cherry, losing Edinburgh South West on a 23.4% swing to Labour, the highest...