Green growth all around in European election Super Sunday
Yesterday saw a treble bill of elections in Europe: Belgium's local elections, the state election in Bavaria, Germany, and the Luxembourg general election.
Each of them featured, as widely predicted, a strong surge for that country's Green Party. The Bavarian Green surge was the strongest, with the Greens taking second place in Bavaria, the most conservative state in Germany and once a country in its own right, for the very first time to the ever-dominant Christian Social Union (the more conservative and heavily Roman Catholic Bavarian counterpart to the Christian Democratic Union). At single member constituency level, the Greens won Wurzburg and five out of nine of the direct mandates in Munich, managing as much as 44% in Munchen-Mitte ("Munich Central"). Their vote share more than doubled to 17.5%, and their seat total also more than doubled from 18 to 38. They also came second in the majority of Bavaria's state direct mandates (single member constituencies) to the CSU.
The majority of their new votes came from liberal-minded SPD voters, and the SPD bore the brunt of their continued support of Angela Merkel's CDU government, falling to 9.7% and fifth place behind not only the CSU and Greens but also the Free Voters (FW, or Freie Wahler) and the nationalist right AfD. Even for Bavaria, these are terrible results for the SPD, and this is the first time they have finished fifth or below 10% in any Landtag election. The SPD not only lost their only direct mandates at landtag level (both in Munich and to the Greens) but only in a handful of direct mandates were they even distant runners up to the CSU. Their seat total nearly halved from 42 to 22,placing them level with AfD who entered the Bavarian Landtag for the first time with 10.2% of the vote and 22 seats.
The CSU lost its majority for only the third time in the modern history of Bavaria, and their vote share of 37.2% is their lowest ever. They also failed to poll 50% or more in any direct mandate in Bavaria, although nevertheless they won the majority of them once again. The Greens won some of their votes, but most of their lost votes were to AfD and the Free Voters, a loose federation of localist parties in Bavaria. The heaviest CSU vote drops coincide with the highest Free Voters increases, especially in rural areas. The Free Voters beat the AfD for third place, securing 27 seats with 11.6% of the vote although only in Landshut did they come close to winning a direct mandate from the CSU; nevertheless they finished second in more direct mandates than AfD.
The FDP, having crashed out of the Bavarian Landtag in 2013 like so many others, scraped a return with 5.1% of the vote and 11 seats; they formed a coalition with the CSU in 2009 but are not in a position to do so this year, nor would they do so anyway. Bavaria has always had the lowest support for Die Linke (The Left) and once again it failed to enter the Landtag with just 3.2% of the vote, nonetheless representing an increase of 1.1%. The Greens' stronger support base ensured that the Greens were the main recipient of lapsed SPD voters and not Die Linke. Increasing support for FW and the Greens exerted a squeeze on the Bavaria Party and the Ecological Democratic Party (ODP) who respectively suffered small drops in their vote share of 0.4% and 0.5%. The Bavarian Green surge won even more votes from the Pirate Party and the Franconians, whose vote share dropped even further to 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, barely registering with voters.
Luxembourg also experienced a Green surge, although it was not on the scale of the Bavarian Green surge. The Luxembourg Greens, Die Greng, won an extra 3 seats and with 15.12% of the vote were close behind the liberal pro-European Democratic Party and the social-democratic Socialist Workers Party. Their seat total of 9 (there are only 60 seats in the Luxembourg Chamber of Deputies) puts them in a position to enter a coalition in Luxembourg for the first time in history. Luxembourg has long been dominated by the Christian democratic Christian Social People's Party (CSV) who since the end of World War II have formed Luxembourg's government except during 1974-1979 and since 2013. Opinion polls widely predicted them to regain the seats they lost in 2013 and return to government, but in fact they lost 2 seats and recorded their worst ever vote share with 28.3%. They finished first once again, however; their dominance in Luxembourg is comparable with that of the CSU in Bavaria, although the CSV is moderately conservative compared to the CSU. The governing coalition led by Xavier Bettel proved not to be very popular either, since the Democratic Party lost 1 seat and the Luxembourg Socialist Workers lost 3 seats. In contrast to their counterparts' collapse in Germany, the Luxembourg Pirate Party entered the Chamber of Deputies with 2 seats, polling 6.45% and finishing ahead of Dei Lenk (The Left) who retained their 2 seats but only polled 5.48%. The Alternative for Democratic Reform (ADR) was widely predicted to do well but in fact only recovered the support they lost in 2013, and they gained just one seat. Their strongest support lies in rural areas but the Nord and Est constituencies only have 16 seats between them, and only nine and seven seats respectively. The heavily urbanised Sud constituency, which has the strongest support for Luxembourg's socialists, has 23 of Luxembourg's 60 seats and the Centre, where Luxembourg City is, has 21. The Greens' strong city surge proved crucial to gaining those 3 extra seats. The Greens now hold the true balance of power in the Chamber, since their 9 seats will prove crucial to confidence and supply when only 31 seats are needed for a majority.
Lastly, in Belgium, the Belgian Greens managed to rise to second place in many Belgian cities, notably Brussels, Schaerbeek, with a good third in Leuven. Despite the number of provincial seats being halved in Flanders, they only lost 3 of them, meaning their representation notionally nearly doubled at provincial level (21 out of 175 compared to 24 out of 351 in 2013). The pattern was relatively similar across the main Belgian municipalities, with the hardline socialist Workers' Party of Belgium making considerable gains as well and the Socialists in both Flanders and Wallonia losing out most this year. Christian Democratic Parties also fared poorly.
Each of them featured, as widely predicted, a strong surge for that country's Green Party. The Bavarian Green surge was the strongest, with the Greens taking second place in Bavaria, the most conservative state in Germany and once a country in its own right, for the very first time to the ever-dominant Christian Social Union (the more conservative and heavily Roman Catholic Bavarian counterpart to the Christian Democratic Union). At single member constituency level, the Greens won Wurzburg and five out of nine of the direct mandates in Munich, managing as much as 44% in Munchen-Mitte ("Munich Central"). Their vote share more than doubled to 17.5%, and their seat total also more than doubled from 18 to 38. They also came second in the majority of Bavaria's state direct mandates (single member constituencies) to the CSU.
The majority of their new votes came from liberal-minded SPD voters, and the SPD bore the brunt of their continued support of Angela Merkel's CDU government, falling to 9.7% and fifth place behind not only the CSU and Greens but also the Free Voters (FW, or Freie Wahler) and the nationalist right AfD. Even for Bavaria, these are terrible results for the SPD, and this is the first time they have finished fifth or below 10% in any Landtag election. The SPD not only lost their only direct mandates at landtag level (both in Munich and to the Greens) but only in a handful of direct mandates were they even distant runners up to the CSU. Their seat total nearly halved from 42 to 22,placing them level with AfD who entered the Bavarian Landtag for the first time with 10.2% of the vote and 22 seats.
The CSU lost its majority for only the third time in the modern history of Bavaria, and their vote share of 37.2% is their lowest ever. They also failed to poll 50% or more in any direct mandate in Bavaria, although nevertheless they won the majority of them once again. The Greens won some of their votes, but most of their lost votes were to AfD and the Free Voters, a loose federation of localist parties in Bavaria. The heaviest CSU vote drops coincide with the highest Free Voters increases, especially in rural areas. The Free Voters beat the AfD for third place, securing 27 seats with 11.6% of the vote although only in Landshut did they come close to winning a direct mandate from the CSU; nevertheless they finished second in more direct mandates than AfD.
The FDP, having crashed out of the Bavarian Landtag in 2013 like so many others, scraped a return with 5.1% of the vote and 11 seats; they formed a coalition with the CSU in 2009 but are not in a position to do so this year, nor would they do so anyway. Bavaria has always had the lowest support for Die Linke (The Left) and once again it failed to enter the Landtag with just 3.2% of the vote, nonetheless representing an increase of 1.1%. The Greens' stronger support base ensured that the Greens were the main recipient of lapsed SPD voters and not Die Linke. Increasing support for FW and the Greens exerted a squeeze on the Bavaria Party and the Ecological Democratic Party (ODP) who respectively suffered small drops in their vote share of 0.4% and 0.5%. The Bavarian Green surge won even more votes from the Pirate Party and the Franconians, whose vote share dropped even further to 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, barely registering with voters.
Luxembourg also experienced a Green surge, although it was not on the scale of the Bavarian Green surge. The Luxembourg Greens, Die Greng, won an extra 3 seats and with 15.12% of the vote were close behind the liberal pro-European Democratic Party and the social-democratic Socialist Workers Party. Their seat total of 9 (there are only 60 seats in the Luxembourg Chamber of Deputies) puts them in a position to enter a coalition in Luxembourg for the first time in history. Luxembourg has long been dominated by the Christian democratic Christian Social People's Party (CSV) who since the end of World War II have formed Luxembourg's government except during 1974-1979 and since 2013. Opinion polls widely predicted them to regain the seats they lost in 2013 and return to government, but in fact they lost 2 seats and recorded their worst ever vote share with 28.3%. They finished first once again, however; their dominance in Luxembourg is comparable with that of the CSU in Bavaria, although the CSV is moderately conservative compared to the CSU. The governing coalition led by Xavier Bettel proved not to be very popular either, since the Democratic Party lost 1 seat and the Luxembourg Socialist Workers lost 3 seats. In contrast to their counterparts' collapse in Germany, the Luxembourg Pirate Party entered the Chamber of Deputies with 2 seats, polling 6.45% and finishing ahead of Dei Lenk (The Left) who retained their 2 seats but only polled 5.48%. The Alternative for Democratic Reform (ADR) was widely predicted to do well but in fact only recovered the support they lost in 2013, and they gained just one seat. Their strongest support lies in rural areas but the Nord and Est constituencies only have 16 seats between them, and only nine and seven seats respectively. The heavily urbanised Sud constituency, which has the strongest support for Luxembourg's socialists, has 23 of Luxembourg's 60 seats and the Centre, where Luxembourg City is, has 21. The Greens' strong city surge proved crucial to gaining those 3 extra seats. The Greens now hold the true balance of power in the Chamber, since their 9 seats will prove crucial to confidence and supply when only 31 seats are needed for a majority.
Lastly, in Belgium, the Belgian Greens managed to rise to second place in many Belgian cities, notably Brussels, Schaerbeek, with a good third in Leuven. Despite the number of provincial seats being halved in Flanders, they only lost 3 of them, meaning their representation notionally nearly doubled at provincial level (21 out of 175 compared to 24 out of 351 in 2013). The pattern was relatively similar across the main Belgian municipalities, with the hardline socialist Workers' Party of Belgium making considerable gains as well and the Socialists in both Flanders and Wallonia losing out most this year. Christian Democratic Parties also fared poorly.
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