My analysis of British local by-elections from 4/10/18 and 11/10/18

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last two weeks were as follows:

(4/10/18):
 Cambridgeshire CC, Soham North & Isleham: Conservative 858 (48.8%, -17.4%), Liberal Democrats 527 (30.0%, +12.5%), Labour 191 (10.9%, -5.5%), Independent 182 (10.4%).

Chesterfield BC, Moor: Liberal Democrats 532 (47.1%, +14.0%), Labour 445 (39.4%, -11.3%), Conservative 84 (7.4%, -8.9%),UKIP 69 (6.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.

Hambleton DC, Thirsk: Conservative 679 (65.4%, -0.1%), Labour 251 (24.2%), Yorkshire Party 108 (10.4%). [No independent candidates this time]

(11/10/18):

Adur DC, Shortlands: Labour 448 (45.9%, +16.9%), Conservative 395 (40.5%, +10.6%), Green 132 (13.5%). Labour gain from UKIP who did not defend the seat; all changes are since 2016. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]

Halton UA, Ditton: Labour 644 (73.5%, +11.6%), Conservative 135 (15.4%), Liberal Democrats 97 (11.1%). [No independent candidates this time]

Hartlepool UA, Hart: Independent (Brewer) 637 (44.1%), Labour 582 (40.2%, +1.5%), Conservative 200 (13.8%, -1.4%), Green 27 (1.9%). Independent gain from Labour; all changes are since this May.

Warrington UA, Penketh & Cuerdley: Independent 784 (36.1%), Labour 691 (31.8%, -20.6%), Conservative 479 (22.1%, -16.9%), Liberal Democrats 100 (4.6%,-4.0%), UKIP 69 (3.2%), Green 47 (2.2%). Independent gain from Labour.

West Lancashire BC, Tanhouse: Labour 464 (72.3%, -12.8%), Independent 129 (20.1%), Conservative 49 (7.6%, -7.3%).

Of the by-elections that occurred the day I set off for the Green Party Autumn 2018 conference in Bristol which started the next day, the by-election in Chesterfield has an interesting backstory. The successful Liberal Democrat, Tony Rogers, first contested an election in 1974 but never became an MP; however, his efforts against Tony Benn in the Chesterfield constituency enabled Paul Holmes to win it in 2001 (partly helped by Labour selecting hard-left former Wood Green MP Reg Race as candidate to replace the retiring Tony Benn) and for nine years become the only Liberal Democrat MP in the East Midlands. This has occurred despite the fact in 2017 the Liberal Democrats only narrowly saved their deposit in the Chesterfield constituency, with 5.4% of the vote. Cambridgeshire's commuter hinterland is becoming increasingly vulnerable to strong swings from Conservative to Liberal Democrat, and even very safe rural wards and divisions can experience this; Soham North & Isleham experienced a 15% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

The Labour win in Adur was not unexpected by any means; as I have mentioned before an increasing young professional population is strengthening the support of Labour, and also the Green Party, on the once true-blue South Coast of England. However, in the north of England, Labour lost two seats to strong local independents, one in Warrington and one in Hartlepool, and as was shown in the 2017 election in particular a build up of support for localist independents at council level usually translates to increasing Conservative support at general election level unless the localist group fields a candidate themselves. Mansfield and Ashfield, both former Labour strongholds  in the Nottinghamshire coalfield, provide excellent evidence to this effect.


  




Comments

  1. Unknown12 October 2018 at 23:29

    Thanks for your data crunching prior to conference, Alan.

    ReplyDelete

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