My analysis of British local by-elections from 6/12/18
Readers, the results of British local by-elections of this week were as follows:
Highland UA, Wester Ross, Strathpeffer & Localsh (1st preferences): SNP 1318 (33.1%, +7.0%), Conservative 1037 (26.0%, +7.6%), Independent (Greene) 622 (15.6%, +3.9%), Green 359 (9.0%, -2.2%), Liberal Democrats 320 (8.0%, -5.4%), Labour 174 (4.4%, -0.7%) Independent (Davis) 130 (3.3%), UKIP 16 (0.4%), Libertarian 8 (0.2%). SNP gain from Liberal Democrat at stage 8.
Leicester UA, Belgrave: Labour 5,477 (86.6%, +17.0%), Conservative 412 (6.5%, -11.9%), Liberal Democrats 238 (3.8%), Green 199 (3.1%, -2.5%). [UKIP and TUSC did not stand]
Oxford BC, Wolvercote: Liberal Democrats 998 (60.5%, -0.5%), Conservative 404 (24.5%, +1.0%), Labour 162 (9.8%, -0.1%), Green 86 (5.2%, -0.5%).
Surrey CC, The Byfleets: Independent 1128 (48.6%, +16.2%), Conservative 782 (33.8%, -7.6%), Liberal Democrats 309 (13.3%, -4.2%) UKIP 101 (4.4%, +1.1%). Independent gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand]
In rural Scottish local by-elections, high numbers of candidates are a usual occurrence, and Wester Ross, Strathpeffer & Localsh, one of the largest local wards in the UK, proved to be no exception with nine candidates. Richard Greene, who had been an Independent councillor there from 2012 to 2017 when he lost in the final stages of the count, failed to win back his seat even though anti-SNP transfers should have been helpful to him. However, despite the Conservative government being held in contempt of Parliament over failing to publish legal advice regarding Brexit, which it has now done, the Conservatives achieved a good second place but unlike in the 2017 general election, the Liberal Democrat and Labour transfers went mainly to the SNP. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, slipped to fifth place behind the Greens partly due to a former councillor of theirs standing as an Independent.
Belgrave's result is astounding from a statistical perspective-it was already one of the safest Labour wards in Leicester in 2015, and due to turnout being as high as 43.8% the successful Labour candidate won more votes than any of the three Labour councillors elected here in 2015. The Labour majority of 80.1% is also the highest majority for any candidate so far in British local by-elections this year, which we are now approaching the end of. There was also a substantial swing from Conservative to Labour of 14.5%.
Why did this happen? The old ward of Belgrave had one of the largest Hindu populations in the UK, with nearly 55% of residents identifying as Hindu in the 2011 census, which was second only to neighbouring Latimer ward where 71% of residents identified as Hindu. The current Belgrave ward, first created in 2015, is in fact mostly based on the old Latimer ward. However, its economic characteristics are a strong factor as well: only 1/8 of this ward's population is employed in a managerial or professional position and less than one-quarter have A levels or a university degree. Also, in 2015, the white British Labour councillor who finished third of all the candidates standing, John Thomas, finished 940 and 1052 votes behind his first and second placed Indian colleagues, which dampened the Labour vote slightly. The Conservatives' lurch to the pro-Brexit right, alongside their exposed internal divisions, has since 2015 lost them considerable support amongst BAME voters.
This fact is not actually that surprising given the aberrant pro-Conservative swings which occurred in the 1997 general election, where there nationally was an 11% swing from Conservative to Labour, in the constituencies of Bethnal Green & Bow and Bradford West. In both cases, the selected Labour candidate was not from the largest ethnic group in the constituency (Oona King was half-African American, Marsha Singh was Punjabi and a Hindu) but the Conservative candidate in each case (Kabir Choudhury in Bethnal Green & Bow, Mohammed Riaz in Bradford West) was. In 2010, Gurcharan Singh achieved one of the largest pro-Conservative swings in Greater London, 8.3%, in Ealing Southall where Sikhs are the largest religious group and where up to 2010 Tony Lit, son of former Sunrise Radio chairman Avtar Lit, had been the only Asian Conservative candidate to stand in Ealing Southall. In 2015, Ealing Southall experienced a 10.8% swing to Labour, considerable even for London in 2015, partly due to the fact that the Conservative candidate then, James Symes was not a Sikh, a Muslim, or a Hindu. Local ties still strongly matter nevertheless.
Meanwhile in The Byfleets, comprising the eponymous commuter villages just outside the Surrey town of Woking, Independent councillor Amanda Boote easily won on the back of commuters' unease over the Brexit deal that the Conservatives have come up with after negotiations with the EU, which offers no real benefit to Britain whilst still subjecting Britain to many EU laws for several years without Britain having a voice in them. The absence of a Labour candidate in a highly middle class commuter division made little difference to the outcome compared to Brexit-related events.
Highland UA, Wester Ross, Strathpeffer & Localsh (1st preferences): SNP 1318 (33.1%, +7.0%), Conservative 1037 (26.0%, +7.6%), Independent (Greene) 622 (15.6%, +3.9%), Green 359 (9.0%, -2.2%), Liberal Democrats 320 (8.0%, -5.4%), Labour 174 (4.4%, -0.7%) Independent (Davis) 130 (3.3%), UKIP 16 (0.4%), Libertarian 8 (0.2%). SNP gain from Liberal Democrat at stage 8.
Leicester UA, Belgrave: Labour 5,477 (86.6%, +17.0%), Conservative 412 (6.5%, -11.9%), Liberal Democrats 238 (3.8%), Green 199 (3.1%, -2.5%). [UKIP and TUSC did not stand]
Oxford BC, Wolvercote: Liberal Democrats 998 (60.5%, -0.5%), Conservative 404 (24.5%, +1.0%), Labour 162 (9.8%, -0.1%), Green 86 (5.2%, -0.5%).
Surrey CC, The Byfleets: Independent 1128 (48.6%, +16.2%), Conservative 782 (33.8%, -7.6%), Liberal Democrats 309 (13.3%, -4.2%) UKIP 101 (4.4%, +1.1%). Independent gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand]
In rural Scottish local by-elections, high numbers of candidates are a usual occurrence, and Wester Ross, Strathpeffer & Localsh, one of the largest local wards in the UK, proved to be no exception with nine candidates. Richard Greene, who had been an Independent councillor there from 2012 to 2017 when he lost in the final stages of the count, failed to win back his seat even though anti-SNP transfers should have been helpful to him. However, despite the Conservative government being held in contempt of Parliament over failing to publish legal advice regarding Brexit, which it has now done, the Conservatives achieved a good second place but unlike in the 2017 general election, the Liberal Democrat and Labour transfers went mainly to the SNP. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, slipped to fifth place behind the Greens partly due to a former councillor of theirs standing as an Independent.
Belgrave's result is astounding from a statistical perspective-it was already one of the safest Labour wards in Leicester in 2015, and due to turnout being as high as 43.8% the successful Labour candidate won more votes than any of the three Labour councillors elected here in 2015. The Labour majority of 80.1% is also the highest majority for any candidate so far in British local by-elections this year, which we are now approaching the end of. There was also a substantial swing from Conservative to Labour of 14.5%.
Why did this happen? The old ward of Belgrave had one of the largest Hindu populations in the UK, with nearly 55% of residents identifying as Hindu in the 2011 census, which was second only to neighbouring Latimer ward where 71% of residents identified as Hindu. The current Belgrave ward, first created in 2015, is in fact mostly based on the old Latimer ward. However, its economic characteristics are a strong factor as well: only 1/8 of this ward's population is employed in a managerial or professional position and less than one-quarter have A levels or a university degree. Also, in 2015, the white British Labour councillor who finished third of all the candidates standing, John Thomas, finished 940 and 1052 votes behind his first and second placed Indian colleagues, which dampened the Labour vote slightly. The Conservatives' lurch to the pro-Brexit right, alongside their exposed internal divisions, has since 2015 lost them considerable support amongst BAME voters.
This fact is not actually that surprising given the aberrant pro-Conservative swings which occurred in the 1997 general election, where there nationally was an 11% swing from Conservative to Labour, in the constituencies of Bethnal Green & Bow and Bradford West. In both cases, the selected Labour candidate was not from the largest ethnic group in the constituency (Oona King was half-African American, Marsha Singh was Punjabi and a Hindu) but the Conservative candidate in each case (Kabir Choudhury in Bethnal Green & Bow, Mohammed Riaz in Bradford West) was. In 2010, Gurcharan Singh achieved one of the largest pro-Conservative swings in Greater London, 8.3%, in Ealing Southall where Sikhs are the largest religious group and where up to 2010 Tony Lit, son of former Sunrise Radio chairman Avtar Lit, had been the only Asian Conservative candidate to stand in Ealing Southall. In 2015, Ealing Southall experienced a 10.8% swing to Labour, considerable even for London in 2015, partly due to the fact that the Conservative candidate then, James Symes was not a Sikh, a Muslim, or a Hindu. Local ties still strongly matter nevertheless.
Meanwhile in The Byfleets, comprising the eponymous commuter villages just outside the Surrey town of Woking, Independent councillor Amanda Boote easily won on the back of commuters' unease over the Brexit deal that the Conservatives have come up with after negotiations with the EU, which offers no real benefit to Britain whilst still subjecting Britain to many EU laws for several years without Britain having a voice in them. The absence of a Labour candidate in a highly middle class commuter division made little difference to the outcome compared to Brexit-related events.
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