My analysis of British local by-elections of 1/11/18
Readers, the results of British local by-elections which took place yesterday (All Saints' Day) were as follows:
Kirklees MBC, Denby Dale: Labour 1834 (46.7%, +3.8%), Conservative 1689 (43.0%, -4.2%), Liberal Democrats 289 (7.4%, +4.6%), Green 116 (3.0%, -4.2%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since this May.
Newham LBC, Boleyn: Labour 1725 (74.8%, +1.2%), Conservative 327 (14.2%, -0.5%), Green 172 (7.5%, -4.2%), Liberal Democrats 83 (3.6%).
South Gloucestershire UA, Dodington: Liberal Democrats 693 (49.3%, +8.6%), Conservative 554 (39.4%, +17.3%), Labour 158 (11.3%, -0.7%). [UKIP did not stand]
Labour's gain from the Conservatives in Denby Dale is a critical one, since Dewsbury is still a key marginal at general election time and Denby Dale is a small village that also has excellent links to metropolitan Yorkshire. Surprisingly, the Liberal Democrats and Greens swapped places from this May even though the ward is only marginal between the Conservatives and Labour. Also, Labour has a small majority on Kirklees council, having only obtained it six months ago, and any defection relating to factional disagreement or another reason could cost them effective control. Labour are at this time of writing still trailing the Conservatives in all opinion polls, even the Conservatives are more internally divided at the moment. The recent resignation of Tracey Crouch (Conservative MP for Chatham & Aylesford since 2010) from the position of Minister for Sport, Civil Society and Loneliness over unnecessary delays in introducing reduced limits on fixed betting odds terminals in betting shops is a case in point.
Whilst the Newham result was predictable, with a Liberal Democrat intervention being primarily responsible for the Green vote share decrease, an interesting point is that the by-election occurred shortly after it was revealed that serious errors had been made in the counts for several wards at Newham's last local elections this May, with the biggest errors being in Stratford & New Town ward. This did not however result in any results being overturned, and miscounting of the type that occurred (where maiden names were listed on the Statement of Persons Nominated but where candidates were sorted by their married name instead) would not have occurred in this by-election.
In Dodington, the Conservatives benefitted substantially from UKIP's absence, however at the same time the "general election boost" factor was not there to help them this time. Dodington, being a suburb of the prosperous Bristol commuter town of Yate, has been a strict Lib Dem-Conservative contest for many years so it is unsurprising Labour did not benefit from UKIP's loss; in fact Labour were squeezed by the Liberal Democrats in this very politically competitive area. All 16 Liberal Democrat seats on South Gloucestershire council are in the Thornbury & Yate constituency, and even when the Liberal Democrats administered the council most of their council seats were in what is now Thornbury & Yate (its predecessor, Northavon, which existed from 1983 to 2010, also covered some villages now in Filton & Bradley Stoke). Bristolian commuters are increasingly being priced out of Bristol (especially central Bristol) by gentrification, if not to the extent that Londoners have been over the past 20 years, and this keeps the Thornbuty & Yate area the way it is politically.
On the same day, Mike Eddy defected from Labour to the Green Party, giving them representation on Dover council for the very first time, more than compensating them for the lack of local by-elections this week that were winnable for the Greens.
Kirklees MBC, Denby Dale: Labour 1834 (46.7%, +3.8%), Conservative 1689 (43.0%, -4.2%), Liberal Democrats 289 (7.4%, +4.6%), Green 116 (3.0%, -4.2%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since this May.
Newham LBC, Boleyn: Labour 1725 (74.8%, +1.2%), Conservative 327 (14.2%, -0.5%), Green 172 (7.5%, -4.2%), Liberal Democrats 83 (3.6%).
South Gloucestershire UA, Dodington: Liberal Democrats 693 (49.3%, +8.6%), Conservative 554 (39.4%, +17.3%), Labour 158 (11.3%, -0.7%). [UKIP did not stand]
Labour's gain from the Conservatives in Denby Dale is a critical one, since Dewsbury is still a key marginal at general election time and Denby Dale is a small village that also has excellent links to metropolitan Yorkshire. Surprisingly, the Liberal Democrats and Greens swapped places from this May even though the ward is only marginal between the Conservatives and Labour. Also, Labour has a small majority on Kirklees council, having only obtained it six months ago, and any defection relating to factional disagreement or another reason could cost them effective control. Labour are at this time of writing still trailing the Conservatives in all opinion polls, even the Conservatives are more internally divided at the moment. The recent resignation of Tracey Crouch (Conservative MP for Chatham & Aylesford since 2010) from the position of Minister for Sport, Civil Society and Loneliness over unnecessary delays in introducing reduced limits on fixed betting odds terminals in betting shops is a case in point.
Whilst the Newham result was predictable, with a Liberal Democrat intervention being primarily responsible for the Green vote share decrease, an interesting point is that the by-election occurred shortly after it was revealed that serious errors had been made in the counts for several wards at Newham's last local elections this May, with the biggest errors being in Stratford & New Town ward. This did not however result in any results being overturned, and miscounting of the type that occurred (where maiden names were listed on the Statement of Persons Nominated but where candidates were sorted by their married name instead) would not have occurred in this by-election.
In Dodington, the Conservatives benefitted substantially from UKIP's absence, however at the same time the "general election boost" factor was not there to help them this time. Dodington, being a suburb of the prosperous Bristol commuter town of Yate, has been a strict Lib Dem-Conservative contest for many years so it is unsurprising Labour did not benefit from UKIP's loss; in fact Labour were squeezed by the Liberal Democrats in this very politically competitive area. All 16 Liberal Democrat seats on South Gloucestershire council are in the Thornbury & Yate constituency, and even when the Liberal Democrats administered the council most of their council seats were in what is now Thornbury & Yate (its predecessor, Northavon, which existed from 1983 to 2010, also covered some villages now in Filton & Bradley Stoke). Bristolian commuters are increasingly being priced out of Bristol (especially central Bristol) by gentrification, if not to the extent that Londoners have been over the past 20 years, and this keeps the Thornbuty & Yate area the way it is politically.
On the same day, Mike Eddy defected from Labour to the Green Party, giving them representation on Dover council for the very first time, more than compensating them for the lack of local by-elections this week that were winnable for the Greens.
Just to clarify in Newham (I was an electoral agent in the mayoral election in May and a counting agent last week), the problem wasn't just maiden/married names but a more general situation of several candidates being better known by different surnames from their registration for a variety of reasons. The situation in May was also complicated by the multi-member wards with the count splitting straight ticket party votes and mixed individual votes and these were incorrectly recombined.
ReplyDeleteThe by-election count was pretty smooth with the new chief executive/returning officer making a determined effort to ensure it was clear to everyone in the room just what was happening at any particular moment.