My analysis of British local by-elections from this week and other thoughts
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from this week were as follows:
(12/12/18):
Ashfield DC, Sutton Junction & Harlow Wood: Ashfield Independents 856 (81.9%), Labour 97 (9.3% -28.6%), Conservative 48 (4.6%, -20.0%), Democrats & Veterans 26 (2.5%), UKIP 13 (1.2%), Liberal Democrats 5 (0.5, -37.0%). Ashfield Independents gain from Labour:
(13/12/18):
Dumfries & Galloway UA, Dee & Glenkens (1st preferences): Conservative 1682 (45.9%, +12.4%), SNP 1024 (28.0%,+8.4%), Independent (Wyper) 569 (15.5%, -18.6%),Green 342 (9.3%, +3.0%), UKIP 46 (1.3%). Conservative hold at stage 4. [Other Indepedents, Labour, and Liberal Democrats did not stand]
Haringey LBC, West Green: Labour 1273 (56.6%, -7.3%), Liberal Democrats 621 (27.6%, +19.1%), Green 243 (10.8%, -2.7%), Conservative 114 (5.1%, -3.9%).
Harlow DC, Toddbrook: Labour 464 (51.1%, +5.4%), Conservative 311 (34.3%, +0.9%), UKIP 89 (9.8%, -11.2%), Liberal Democrats 44 (4.8%). All changes are since 2015.
Middlesbrough UA, Brambles & Thorntree: Labour 321 (58.4%, +11.2%),Independent (Wilson) 158 (28.7%), Conservative 44 (8.0%, +1.9%), Liberal Democrats 27 (4.9%). [Previous Independent and UKIP did not stand]
The Sutton Junction & Harlow Wood by-election represents the best ever result for the Ashfield Independents, and the biggest swing against Labour ever in the history of Ashfield District Council, 55.2%. It also represents the biggest Liberal Democrat collapse in modern British local by-election, sinking from a close second to not even polling as many votes as the number of signatures required on a nomination form (10). The past Liberal Democrat vote in Ashfield was mainly anti-Labour and based on personal votes than anything else, as demonstrated by the Liberal Democrats' collapse in Ashfield in 2017 when the Ashfield Independents contested the seat; the Liberal Democrat vote fell to 969 (1.9%) and the Ashfield Independents polled 4,612 (9.2%), enough to prevent a Conservative gain of Ashfield. It is almost certain that the Ashfield Independents will gain control of Ashfield council next year, despite an increasingly strong Conservative presence in Hucknall, a popular town for middle of the road Nottingham commuters with very affordable housing.
Meanwhile, former Independent councillor Colin Wyper found himself wiped out in his attempt to return to Dumfries & Galloway council; he finished a poor third behind the Conservatives and SNP. He retired in 2017 citing disillusionment; he would almost certainly have retained his seat had he stood again and it is clear he lost the personal vote he had acquired from 2012-17. Labour held the other three by-elections, all in safely Labour wards, but the 13.2% swing from Labour to Liberal Democrats in West Green, one of the safest Labour wards in Haringey, is certainly noteworthy. Most of the Liberal Democrat strength in Haringey is in the Hornsey & Wood Green constituency in the west of Haringey, not in Tottenham in the east of Haringey, which has been solidly Labour since the reuniting of both Tottenham seats in 1950, a brief defection by Alan Brown to the Conservatives in 1962 not withstanding. The Greens were in a clear if distant second place here and should have benefitted from the pro-Peoples Vote and anti-Labour swing in West Green, but it was the Liberal Democrats who benefitted instead. Jeremy Corbyn's intransigence on Brexit is having significant consequences in well-educated, relatively youthful and progressive parts of Greater London. In the three cases of Labour holds, turnout was below 20%, this being a cold December night.
On yesterday's Question Time episode, the final one hosted by David Dimbleby, I give my thanks to Caroline Lucas MP for giving the green voice of reason we need on Brexit and for her challenge towards David Davis and his shortcomings whilst he was Brexit Secretary.
(12/12/18):
Ashfield DC, Sutton Junction & Harlow Wood: Ashfield Independents 856 (81.9%), Labour 97 (9.3% -28.6%), Conservative 48 (4.6%, -20.0%), Democrats & Veterans 26 (2.5%), UKIP 13 (1.2%), Liberal Democrats 5 (0.5, -37.0%). Ashfield Independents gain from Labour:
(13/12/18):
Dumfries & Galloway UA, Dee & Glenkens (1st preferences): Conservative 1682 (45.9%, +12.4%), SNP 1024 (28.0%,+8.4%), Independent (Wyper) 569 (15.5%, -18.6%),Green 342 (9.3%, +3.0%), UKIP 46 (1.3%). Conservative hold at stage 4. [Other Indepedents, Labour, and Liberal Democrats did not stand]
Haringey LBC, West Green: Labour 1273 (56.6%, -7.3%), Liberal Democrats 621 (27.6%, +19.1%), Green 243 (10.8%, -2.7%), Conservative 114 (5.1%, -3.9%).
Harlow DC, Toddbrook: Labour 464 (51.1%, +5.4%), Conservative 311 (34.3%, +0.9%), UKIP 89 (9.8%, -11.2%), Liberal Democrats 44 (4.8%). All changes are since 2015.
Middlesbrough UA, Brambles & Thorntree: Labour 321 (58.4%, +11.2%),Independent (Wilson) 158 (28.7%), Conservative 44 (8.0%, +1.9%), Liberal Democrats 27 (4.9%). [Previous Independent and UKIP did not stand]
The Sutton Junction & Harlow Wood by-election represents the best ever result for the Ashfield Independents, and the biggest swing against Labour ever in the history of Ashfield District Council, 55.2%. It also represents the biggest Liberal Democrat collapse in modern British local by-election, sinking from a close second to not even polling as many votes as the number of signatures required on a nomination form (10). The past Liberal Democrat vote in Ashfield was mainly anti-Labour and based on personal votes than anything else, as demonstrated by the Liberal Democrats' collapse in Ashfield in 2017 when the Ashfield Independents contested the seat; the Liberal Democrat vote fell to 969 (1.9%) and the Ashfield Independents polled 4,612 (9.2%), enough to prevent a Conservative gain of Ashfield. It is almost certain that the Ashfield Independents will gain control of Ashfield council next year, despite an increasingly strong Conservative presence in Hucknall, a popular town for middle of the road Nottingham commuters with very affordable housing.
Meanwhile, former Independent councillor Colin Wyper found himself wiped out in his attempt to return to Dumfries & Galloway council; he finished a poor third behind the Conservatives and SNP. He retired in 2017 citing disillusionment; he would almost certainly have retained his seat had he stood again and it is clear he lost the personal vote he had acquired from 2012-17. Labour held the other three by-elections, all in safely Labour wards, but the 13.2% swing from Labour to Liberal Democrats in West Green, one of the safest Labour wards in Haringey, is certainly noteworthy. Most of the Liberal Democrat strength in Haringey is in the Hornsey & Wood Green constituency in the west of Haringey, not in Tottenham in the east of Haringey, which has been solidly Labour since the reuniting of both Tottenham seats in 1950, a brief defection by Alan Brown to the Conservatives in 1962 not withstanding. The Greens were in a clear if distant second place here and should have benefitted from the pro-Peoples Vote and anti-Labour swing in West Green, but it was the Liberal Democrats who benefitted instead. Jeremy Corbyn's intransigence on Brexit is having significant consequences in well-educated, relatively youthful and progressive parts of Greater London. In the three cases of Labour holds, turnout was below 20%, this being a cold December night.
On yesterday's Question Time episode, the final one hosted by David Dimbleby, I give my thanks to Caroline Lucas MP for giving the green voice of reason we need on Brexit and for her challenge towards David Davis and his shortcomings whilst he was Brexit Secretary.
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