Alan's Green Thoughts

Readers, devolution in England part by part is once again in the spotlight. Firstly, Greater Manchester, and all 10 councils that fall into its area (Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford and Wigan) is having an executive mayor imposed on it, even after the people of Manchester voted against having an elected mayor back in 2012, and without the consent of the electors within Greater Manchester. Only one of the ten boroughs in Greater Manchester, Salford, voted to have an elected mayor, and the turnout in that referendum was a dreadful 18%. The cities and boroughs whose people voted against having elected mayors (instead of council leaders) in 2012 had good reason to reject the idea: in Britain, directly elected mayors can just by themselves appoint a cabinet tailored to their own personal whim, and this cabinet is more likely to represent that mayor's interests (and corporate interests whom that mayor is friendly with) than those of

Over the past year, readers, you may have been paying attention to polls released by Michael Ashcroft, aka Lord Ashcroft. I have as well, sometimes, although it is only know that I will be analysing these recent Ashcroft polls (i.e. polls conducted within the last six months, in which the Green Party has been steadily rising in support, where the gap between Conservatives and Labour has been closing, and where the Liberal Democrats' support is reaching its nadir and not getting any lower overall) to give my thoughts. 1. The Green Party is taking votes from the Liberal Democrats-but their level of strength varies quite widely in constituencies the Liberal Democrats hold or have strength in. Why? Analysis of Con-LD marginals, LD-Lab marginals, and three way marginals (rather rare) by Ashcroft polls shows that in south west seats, especially those that have a latent 'green' nature (St Ives, for example). the Liberal Democrat vote is shifting reasonably well to the Green

Yesterday, readers, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, notable for his economic stance of 'Abenomics', called an early general election in Japan, despite the fact that the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP), which has held power in Japan for most of the last 60 years, was losing ground in the polls. However, as in 2012, he and the LDP won another landslide victory, with 290 seats out of 475, including three-quarters of the FPTP seats. (Japan uses the Mixed Member Proportional voting system for its House of Representatives, but there are 295 FPTP seats and only 180 PR seats). Even though the main opposition party there, the Democratic Party of Japan (which like Labour in the UK is not really that much of an opposition at all), gained an extra 16 seats compared to 2012, its leader, Banri Kaieda, ended up losing his own seat. I believe this can partly be blamed on the rise of the Japanese Communist Party, which increased its seats from 8 to 21, its best result since 2000.

Readers, the results from local by-elections yesterday featuring Green Party candidates were as follows (in case you missed them): Aylesbury DC, Gatehouse: Liberal Democrat 295 (35.6%, -5.9%), UKIP 267 (32.2%, +15.2%), Conservative 113 (13.6%, -9.2%), Labour 113 (13.6%,-5.0%), Green 28 (3.4%), Independent 12 (1.4%) Aylesbury DC, Southcourt: Lib Dem 429 (42.3%, +6.3%), UKIP 266 (26.2%, +12.1%), Lab 175 (17.2%, -12.2%), Con 112 (11.0%, -9.4%), Green 33 (3.3%). Lib Dem gain from Labour. Moray UA, Elgin City North: (1st preference votes) SNP 728 (38.0%, -5.3%), Independent 472 (24.6%), Lab 287 (15.0%, -14.9%), Con 273 (14.2%, -3.2%), UKIP 81 (4.2%), Green 77 (4.0%). SNP gain from Labour. Sunderland MBC, Washington East: Lab 775 (38.3%, -3.0%), Con 595 (29.4%, +4.2%), UKIP 506 (25.0%, -1.1%), Green 93 (4.6%), Lib Dem 52 (2.6%). [All changes are since 2014] Despite the fact polls show that the Green Party will win more voters from the Liberal Democrats than the other major parties

Readers, it is almost the end of the calendar year, and several important general elections in Europe are coming up next year, in Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, and of course the United Kingdom. (There will also be early elections in Sweden next year following a government defeat on a budget vote). The Green Party of England and Wales, I am pleased to say, is still experiencing a good influx of members; GPEW now has nearly 30,000 members and counting. I believe that Green Party membership across the UK (which also includes the Scottish Green Party and the Green Party of Northern Ireland) will overtake that of both UKIP and the Liberal Democrats by May 2015, when our next general election will take place. GPEW is also still performing well at 6% in national polls on average over the last four weeks. Meanwhile, let us check how Green and left-wing parties are polling at the moment in the countries I mentioned above: Denmark: Socialist Folkeparti (G/EFA): 7

Readers, only one local by-election from this week featured a Green Party candidate, and the results of it were as follows: Adur DC, St. Mary's: Conservative 340 (38.4%, +1.3%), Labour 223 (25.2%, +2.6%), UKIP 216 (24.4%, +3.2%), Green 106 (12.0%, -0.7%). All changes are since 2014. Two days ago, former Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe, the last pre-Thatcher leader of any major British political party, died aged 85, having suffered from early onset Parkinson's disease for  30 years. He famously helped the Liberals rise to prominence in the February 1974 general election, polling six million votes and 14 seats, but is infamously remembered for the 'Rinkagate' scandal, involving Norman Scott and his dog, Rinka. Throughout recent history, there has been much speculation about the facts and rumours behind the Rinkagate affair of 1976, which caused Jeremy to resign as Liberal leader the same year. I myself wonder this, however-did Conservative allies engineer the quick 

Just Appreciate Our Differences (a poem about the importance of respecting diversity, and especially people with disabilities): My fellow humans, Just listen around you, Just look around you, Wherever you are. We are not all the same, But why should we let Difference and diversity Set us humans apart? I am different, I act different, But you cannot always see that. You think I might be faking it, You think it does not matter. We all have our struggles, Our paths, our quests, I do as well, but they are more difficult, I never chose to have a disability, People never choose to acquire mental illness, But still some of you and the media, Want our heads on a platter. We try to work, we try to help you, Despite what we have to overcome, But too often you fail to appreciate me Or what I can bring to you and our world. But I know you can all be compassionate, When not being influenced by harmful media Or by soulless corporations, There may be things I find mor

On BBC news, Professor Stephen Hawking warned that AI (artificial intelligence) could, if it advanced far enough, ultimately spell the end of the human race. I believe Professor Hawking has an important point-we are already seeing the potential dangers of AI in unmanned drone warfare as well as science fiction. And although Channel Four's new comedy, 'Bad Robots' (where automated machines are used to prank members of the public in various ways in the same way Fonejacker and Facejacker once did), is supposed to just frustrate its victims (and amuse its audience), it could be potentially a warning of what will come next in terms of AI-human interaction. And machines and robots have already deprived so many people of their jobs, especially over the last three decades of neoliberal capitalism, even if there need to be humans around to maintain the machines. How did we become so attached to machines, even though we are often as frustrated by them as we are pleased by them?

Readers, with the Liberal Democrats in such decline after their many betrayals, suck-ups to the Conservative Party, and failure to uphold their values, it is no wonder that in many local by-elections, local elections, and parliamentary by-elections, they have been bettered in polls by such a wide variety of different candidates. The Green Party is now regularly bettering the Liberal Democrats in many polls, on that note. Here is a list of minor party (the major parties other than the Lib Dems are the Conservatives, the Greens, Labour, and UKIP; the SNP and Plaid Cymru are also major parties in Scottish- and Welsh-related contexts respectively) and independent candidates who have beaten the Lib Dems over the span of the Con-Dem government's time (which is due to expire soon next year): Parliamentary by-elections 2011, Barnsley Central: BNP and Independent Tony Devoy. 2012, Bradford West: Respect MP George Galloway. 2012, Rotherham: BNP, Respect, English Democrats and Indep

Readers, I am pleased to say that not just in Britain, but also British Commonwealth nations (many of which still have first-past-the-post electoral systems), Green Parties are moving forwards and making strides. The state of Victoria, Australia, held a legislative election yesterday, which resulted in the Liberals losing power after only one term, a significant blow to Australia's rabidly anti-green, neoliberal Prime Minister, Tony Abbott (now ex-Liberal Premier of Victoria, Denis Napthine, was overheard blaming Tony Abbott for his defeat, apparently). More importantly, though, our Green counterparts in Australia won their first assembly seat in the division of Melbourne, covering an area Adam Bandt (the only current Green MP in Australia's federal House of Representatives) represents. I give my thanks to the successful Australian Green in question, Ellen Sandell, who at just 30 years of age has made that significant breakthrough. They also nearly gained the division of Rich

Readers, the results of yesterday's local by-elections featuring Green Party candidates were as follows: Aberdeenshire UA, Troup: (1st preference votes): SNP 1159 (46.1%, +6.4%), Conservative 574 (22.8%, +1.9%), Independent S 391 (15.5%), Liberal Democrat 141 (5.6%, +3.6%), Labour 140 (5.6%, -0.9%), Green 68 (2.4%), Independent M 43 (1.7%). Midlothian UA, Midlothian East: Lab 1294 (32.9%, -2.7%), SNP 1260 (32.1%, -10.8%), Ind 780 (19.8%), Con 331 (8.4%, -0.7%), Green 197 (5.0%), Lib Dem 68 (1.7%) Oxford CC, Blackbird Leys: Lab 509 (75.7%, +8.4%), UKIP 91 (13.5%, -7.0%), Con 27 (4.0%, -1.6%), Green 21 (3.1%, -1.4%), TUSC 13 (1.9%), Lib Dem 11 (1.7%, -0.4%) Oxford CC, Northfield Brook: Lab 401 (70.6%, -1.0%), Con 65 (11.4%, +0.0%), Green 50 (8.8%, -2.5%), TUSC 34 (6.0%), Lib Dem 18 (3.2%, -2.5%) Oxfordshire CC, The Leys: Lab 879 (71.0%, -10.5%), UKIP 168 (13.6%), Con 77 (6.2%, -1.4%), Green 57 (4.6%, -2.8%), Lib Dem 30 (2.4%, -1.0%), TUSC 27 (2.2%). Despite the very stron

40 years ago, two general elections took place in the UK. February 1974 is much better remembered, not only for the strong Liberal surge which shook both the Conservatives and Labour (the Conservatives more so) and the first real establishment of Plaid Cymru and the SNP as a force in British politics, but also for a hung Parliament that resulted. The October 1974 general election by contrast is less well-known today, partly because a majority government did come out of it and also because of the lower turnout. Both were very tightly fought, though-the Conservatives were just ahead of Labour in terms of vote share (37.8% to 37.5%) but ended up with four seats fewer because of the unfairness of first past the post; the Liberals were even more hard done by since nearly 20% of the votes cast only rewarded them with just over 2% of Westminster seats (14 out of 623 mainland seats, although they only put forward 517 candidates). In October 1974, the Liberals fielded a candidate in almost ev

Reclaim the stolen land (I read this at an event last weekend): People of Britain, let us come and occupy On every square, every space, of public land. Land stolen from our ancestors by the filthy rich, Using force and capitalism's grabby hands. Let us be fazed by nothing, Not the police, not corporate guards, no-one, Let us stride and thus fear nothing, Tomorrow, tomorrow, and tomorrow, the square shall be won. People everywhere, let us reclaim the stolen land, That has been despoiled by the rich, abused by the Crown. Let us block the entry of those dirty fracking drills, That blot the grass and trees and turn our drinking water brown. Remember, this land was really ours all along, Those peers do not really own it, they just took it without asking. Let us strive to reclaim the stolen land, To restore its glory, to let it become vibrant and shining.

Readers, in case you have not seen it already, the results from the Rochester and Strood by-election were as follows: Mike Barker, Independent, 54 (0.13%) Christopher Challis, Independent, 22 (0.05%) Norman 'Hairy Knorm' Davidson, Official Monster Raving Loony Party, 151 (0.38%) Jayda Fransen, Britain First, 56 (0.14%) Stephen Goldsborough, Independent, 69 (0.17%) Clive Gregory, Green Party, 1,692 (4.22%, +2.71%) Geoff Juby, Liberal Democrats, 349 (0.87%, -15.5%) Naushabah Khan, Labour, 6,713 (16.8%, -11.7%) Nick Long, People Before Profit, 69 (0.17%) Dave Osborn, Patriotic Socialist Party, 33 (0.08%) Mark Reckless, UKIP, 16,867 (42.1%) Charlotte Rose, Independent, 43 (0.11%) Kelly Tolhurst, Conservative, 13,947 (34.8%, -14.4%) Unlike with Clacton, it was not a foregone conclusion that Mark Reckless would win, even though all polls showed him ahead of the Conservatives. However, Kelly Tolhurst made several of the same mistakes as Eastleigh's Cons

Readers, I would first of all like to thank everyone who came to today's Free Education Demo in London, especially those of you from the Green Party, and in particular the Young Greens, who helped get the march organised. I am sorry I could not be there, but I am glad that so many came. After all, many countries in Europe have free higher education, so we can, and we should also have it for both undergraduate and postgraduate education (particularly important to me since I want to become a psychologist one day). Secondly, polling day for the Rochester & Strood by-election is tomorrow and it has been a rather interesting campaign. I am hoping Clive Gregory will have done well enough to save his deposit in the end (since he has not got a realistic chance of winning this by-election, unfortunately), especially with a YouGov poll showing the Green Party as high as 8%. There has undoubtedly been some campaigning from the eight 'minor candidates' (all candidates except Labo

Readers, there were three local by-elections yesterday featuring Green Party candidates, and the results were as follows: Cambridge CC, Queen Edith's: Liberal Democrat 933 (36.5%, -4.7%), Labour 790 (30.9%, +1.1%), Conservative 614 (24.0%, +7.7%), Green 222 (8.7%, -2.7%). Wigan MBC, Douglas: Lab 874 (59.4%, -0.7%), UKIP 452 (30.7%, -0.9%), Con 80 (5.4%, -3.0%), Green 37 (2.5%), Community Action Party 29 (2.0%). Wokingham UA, Bulmershe & Whitegates: Con 726 (35.4%, +8.4%), Lab 498 (24.3%, -10.0%), Lib Dem 448 (21.8%, +4.1%), UKIP 275 (13.4%, -1.6%), Green 105 (5.1%, -1.0%). (NB: All percentage changes in vote share are since 2014) The fact that the Liberal Democrats regained Queen Edith's ward is not surprising-Labour's win in 2012 was a serious shock, given how that ward elected Conservative councillors until 1992 and Lib Dem councillors from then onwards, usually. I am surprised that we Greens did not make an advance even though this ward is in the South Camb

There is not often much mention of psychology or psychiatry in relation to politics in the wider discourse, but I was luckily able to gain such insight today after a drop-in session at a stress relief centre in London. One strong relation between politics and psychology/psychiatry is the excessive use of drugs in psychiatry, when evidence demonstrates that in the long term anti-depressants and other drugs are not nearly as effective at solving mental health problems as therapy and direct help. In fact, an acquaintance of mine told me she had actually experienced anxiety-related tremors as a side effect of a drug supposedly designed to cure significant anxiety and/or depression. The excessive use of drugs and the over-reliance of the medical model in the management and understanding of depression, anxiety, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder etc. is down to the influence and lobbying of large pharmaceutical companies and private healthcare providers (e.g. GE Healthcare and GlaxoSmithKline

Readers, I would firstly like to thank everyone who wore white poppies yesterday (sadly I forgot to get one myself) in remembrance of peace and all those who conscientiously objected during the First World War, as well as those who died in that war. Secondly, I am very pleased to say that the Green Party of England and Wales' membership has now passed the 25,000 mark, meaning that at the rate we are recruiting members, we could soon have more members than the Liberal Democrats by the time the general election comes around :) Thirdly, even though it was not binding, as the Spanish Cortes in Madrid kept reiterating, 80% of Catalonians voted for independence in their own independence referendum yesterday, which is a clear indicator of smaller states' desire for greater autonomy in Europe and greater powers, particularly over finance. Alan.

Readers, the results of yesterday's local by-elections are as follows (they were only two, and both had a Green Party candidate, I am pleased to say): Cornwall UA, Megavissey: Conservative 348 (32.2%, +8.2%), UKIP 281 (26.0%, -1.6%), Labour 204 (18.9%, -10.8%), Liberal Democrat 197 (18.2%, +4.3%), Green 50 (4.6%, -0.1%). Rugby BC, Bilton: Conservative 668 (42.0%, -12.2%), UKIP 325 (20.4%), Liberal Democrat 280 (17.2%, +8.1%), Labour 212 (13.3%, -8.1%), Independent 60 (3.8%), Green 37 (2.3%, -7.7%), TUSC 10 (0.6%, -4.3%). A pretty poor night for the left of Britain-our vote share held up in Megavissey but the Conservatives managed to win it. Cornish local elections have become very volatile recently, with Megavissey having been effectively a four-way marginal since Labour gained it from the Conservatives in 2013. Bilton, an affluent suburb of Rugby, sadly proved worse for us, and especially the Socialists, despite our previous good showing in a safely Conservative ward. Neve