My analysis of British local by-elections from 29/11/18

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from this week were as follows:

Bromley LBC, Kelsey & Eden Park: Conservative 1626 (45.2%, -0.5%), Labour1046 (29.1%, +2.3%), Liberal Democrats 633 (17.6%, +4.2%), UKIP 219 (6.1%, +2.2%), Green 73 (2.0%, -8.1%).

Buckinghamshire CC, Aylesbury North West: Liberal Democrats 654 (39.3%, +9.5%), Conservative 507 (30.5%,+5.9%), Labour 426 (25.6%, +2.9%), Green 77 (4.6%, +1.4%). [UKIP did not stand]

Northampton BC, Delapre & Briar Hill: Labour 914 (43.4%, +17.2%), Conservative 549 (26.0%, +2.4%), Independent (McKenna) 417 (19.8%), Liberal Democrats 133 (6.3%, -9.9%), Green 95 (4.5%). [UKIP, Save Our Public Services and BNP did not stand]

OIdham MBC, Failsworth East: Labour 677 (58.5%, +5.3%), Conservative 336 (29.0%, +0.5%), Independent (Bates) 94 (8.1%), UKIP 32 (2.8%), Liberal Democrats 18 (1.6%,+0.4%).[Previous Independent and Green Party did not stand] All changes are since May.

Oxfordshire CC, Wheatley: Liberal Democrats 1380 (61.0%, +15.8%), Conservative 705 (31.2%, -11.8%), Labour 178 (7.9%, -4.0%).

Warwickshire CC, Stratford North: Liberal Democrats 877 (40.7%,+16.5%), Conservative 610 (28.3%, -0.2%), Stratford First 345 (16.0%, -17.1%),Labour 180 (8.3%, -0.9%), Green 144 (6.7%, +1.6%). Liberal Democrat gain from Stratford First.

Welwyn Hatfield BC, Welwyn West: Conservative 960 (58.7%, +6.8%), Liberal Democrats 604 (36.9%), Labour 72 (4.4%, -5.0%).

The wrangling over the Brexit deal had a profound effect most in by-elections where only the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were competitive. Although Aylesbury North West showed a substantial Conservative vote share increase, this was due to UKIP's absence. UKIP had previously won over many Conservative voters in Aylesbury on the basis of opposition to HS2, which would cause major disruption and loss of land in Aylesbury if it were ever constructed. The HS2 project is not officially dead yet, however, despite it being increasingly clear that the benefits will be insignificant compared to the environmental destruction and disruption building it will cause. Wheatley is not within HS2's proposed route, but it swung even further to the Liberal Democrats, recording a swing of 13.8%. The absence of former Independent councillor Sandra Kyriakides from the contest in Welwyn (the original village of, not the areas making up the larger Welwyn Garden City) proved to be helpful to the Liberal Democrats there, but not enough to overcome the rock-solid Conservative vote present in both Welwyn West and Welwyn East.

It proved to be a poor week for Independent and localist candidates. Due to a Liberal Democrat revival, Stratford First lost more than half their vote and finished a poor third in Stratford North, behind the Conservatives whose vote share still decreased, albeit only by 0.2%. Ex-UKIP councillor Warren Bates likewise finished a poor third as an Independent in Failsworth East, despite Failsworth having previously been good UKIP territory and UKIP rising to notice in the polls as a result of Conservative divisions and incompetence regarding the Brexit deal, which even a plurality of Leave voters oppose. There was a rather better Independent result in the south of Northampton, but in a crowded field Labour surged ahead boosted by Save Our Services, which undoubtedly took left-wing Labour votes, not standing in this by-election. Interestingly, the Greens increased their vote share in the marginal contests of Aylesbury North West and Stratford North, but lost 4/5 of their vote share in Kelsey & Eden Park in Bromley, despite the latter ward not being marginal.






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