Alan's Green Thoughts

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last two weeks of September 2022 were as follows: (22/9/22): Coventry MBC, Sherbourne : Conservative 1,409 (51.2%, +12.2%), Labour 895 (32.5%, -7.4%), Green 139 (5.0%, -4.2%), TUSC 125 (4.5%, +0.2%), Liberal Democrats 94 (3.4%, -1.4%), Coventry Citizens 92 (3.3%, +0.6%). Conservative gain from Labour; all changes are since May. Gwynedd UA, Llanuwychllyn : Plaid Cymru 368 (95.8%), Liberal Democrats 16 (4.2%). Stoke-on-Trent UA, Bentilee & Ubberley : Labour 469 (62.8%, +28.6%), City Independent 143 (19.1%, -1.1%), Conservative 138 (18.4%, +10.7%). [UKIP and For Britain did not stand] Wealden DC, Maresfield : Green 651 (61.2%, +30.3%), Conservative 411 (38.8%, -23.3%). Green gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand] (29/9/22): Argyll & Bute UA, Kintyre & The Islands (1st preferences) : Independent (Redman) 591 (32.7%, +16.3%), SNP 525 (29.1%, -0.8%), Liberal Democrats 265 (14.7%, -1.7%), Conservative 194 (10.7%,

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first half of September 2022 were as follows: (1/9/22): Redditch BC, Headless Cross & Oakenshaw : Labour 767 (41.9%, +17.7%), Conservative 686 (37.5%, -25.4%), Liberal Democrats 274 (15.0%, +9.3%), Green 102 (5.6%, -1.6%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since 2021. Worcestershire CC, Arrow Valley West : Labour 1,342 (53.7%, +17.4%), Conservative 893 (35.7%, -15.5%), Green 146 (5.8%, -0.9%), Liberal Democrats 120 (4.8%, -1.0%). Labour gain from Conservative. (8/9/22): Arun DC, Barnham : Green 786 (50.9%, +19.1%), Conservative 641 (41.5%, +11.3%), Labour 116 (7.5%, -8.0%). Green gain from Conservative. Cannock Chase DC, Hednesford North : Labour 290 (38.1%, +4.8%), Chase Community Independent 228 (30.0%, +2.6%), Conservative 208 (27.3%, -12.0%), Independent (Harborow) 35 (4.6%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since 2021. Hartlepool UA, Foggy Furze : Labour 443 (43.9%, +23.8%), Conservative 3

The Swedish general election of 2022 generated some surprising results, despite also averting pollsters' predictions significantly. The last three years in particular proved to be a rough ride for the Social Democrat led governments of Stefan Lofven and Magdalena Andersson respectively. Although Sweden's laxer approach to the COVID-19 pandemic (compared to most countries in Europe, which imposed lockdowns during much of 2020 and 2021, an approach that arguably caused more problems than it solved) proved effective, Mr Lofven's desire to lift the austerity tax (which only affected a wealthy minority, similar in nature to the wealth tax initiative of former French President Francois Hollande) and to join NATO proved contentious, with two of the Social Democrats' former coalition partners (the Swedish Greens and Swedish Left Party, who had both pulled out of confidence and supply) unsurprisingly voting against Swedish accession to NATO membership (all other parties in the R

  Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the USSR, died yesterday. Like many of his contemporaries behind the former Iron Curtain, Mr Gorbachev grew up in humble surroundings, his parents working on collective farms in rural Russia. He rose through the ranks of the CPSU (Communist Party of the Soviet Union) to reach the Politburo in 1980, just five years before he became Secretary-General (de facto leader of the USSR). He was expected to succeed Yuri Andropov upon Mr Andropov's death in 1984, but Konstantin Chernenko was selected instead. Mr Chernenko died the following year and Mikhail Gorbachev finally achieved the position he needed to implement his reform programme, under the terms glasnost ("openness") and perestroika ("restructuring"). Ironically, in trying to modernise the USSR with those reforms, he brought about its demise. Not only were Russians increasingly tired of the whole planned economic system, but leaders in other Iron Curtain countries (especia

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections that took place during August 2022 were as follows: (4/8/22): Luton UA, Dallow: Labour 1,486 (53.6%, -11.7%), Liberal Democrats 1,076 (38.8%), Conservative 154 (5.6%, -7.6%), Independent (Schiemann) 58 (2.1%). [Other Independent did not stand] Shetland UA, North Isles (1st preference votes, all candidates were Independents): Robert Thomson 680 (68.6%), Sonia Robertson 106 (10.7%), Gary Cleaver 100 (10.1%), Maria Williamson 92 (9.3%), Stewart Douglas 13 (1.3%).  (11/8/22): Bridgend UA, Bridgend Central : Independent (Easterbrook) 716 (46.8%, +2.2%*), Labour 590 (38.6%, -4.1%), Conservative 150 (9.8%, -2.9%), Green 40 (2.6%), Liberal Democrats 34 (2.2%). Independent gain from Labour. Spelthorne BC, Laleham & Shepperton Green : Conservative 810 (55.5%, +23.4%), Liberal Democrats 578 (39.6%, +23.3%), TUSC 71 (4.9%). [Greens, UKIP, and Labour did not stand] Wychavon DC, Dodderhill : Conservative 199 (48.9%), Green 176 (43.2%), Liberal

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the second fortnight of July 2022 were as follows: (20/07/22): Basildon BC, Nethermayne : Independent (Larkin) 909 (62.7%, -10.4%), Conservative 233 (16.1%, +8.9%), Labour 169 (11.7%, -0.2%), Liberal Democrats 102 (7.0%, +3.8%), Reform UK 37 (2.6%). All changes are since 2019. (21/07/22): Lancaster BC, Harbour : Labour 555 (47.9%, +4.5%), Liberal Democrats 479 (41.4%), Conservative 124 (10.7%, -2.6%). [Morecambe Bay Independents did not stand] North Warwickshire DC, Hartshill : Conservative 351 (53.3%, +4.9%), Labour 307 (46.7%, +13.0%). [Greens did not stand] South Staffordshire DC, Penkridge North East & Acton Trussel : Conservative 388 (47.8%), Liberal Democrats 378 (46.6%), Labour 45 (5.6%). (28/07/22): Colchester BC, Lexden & Braiswick : Conservative 1,372 (63.7%, +9.4%), Liberal Democrats 621 (28.8%, +10.6%), Labour 161 (7.5%, -3.7%). All changes are since 2021. [Greens did not stand] North East Derbyshire DC, Pils

David Trimble, latterly Lord Trimble (or Baron Trimble of Lisnagarvey, to give his official title when he was in the House of Lords), the first First Minister of Northern Ireland who like John Hume played an instrumental part in ensuring peace in Northern Ireland via the Good Friday Agreement, died earlier this week. Although Lord Trimble, who led the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) for 10 years was initially elected as a more conservative, traditional unionist leader, he eventually realised, having initially opposed any power sharing between unionists and nationalists for years, that brokering a peace agreement involving both sides of the sectarian divide in Northern Ireland was the only way Northern Ireland could move on from its past and forge a new future. Previous attempts at a Northern Ireland Assembly had failed before following the collapse of the Northern Ireland Parliament in 1972, but Lord Trimble knew that a permanent Assembly, following the Northern Ireland Forum of 1996, was

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of July 2022 were as follows: (7/7/22): Camden LBC, Hampstead Town: Liberal Democrats 919 (40.9%, +20.1%), Conservative 620 (27.6%, -11.8%), Labour 559 (24.9%, -15.0%), Green 104 (4.6%), Independent (Livingstone) 44 (2.0%), National Housing Party 1 (0.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour. Chesterfield BC, Hollingwood & Inkersall : Labour 747 (48.5%, +15.1%), Independent (Rhodes) 676 (43.9%, -9.2%)*, Green 118 (7.7%). Labour gain from Independent. [Conservatives and Liberal Democrats did not stand] Epsom & Ewell BC, West Ewell : Residents' Association 549 (43.4%, -28.9%), Labour 395 (31.2%, +20.4%), Conservative 205 (16.2%, +8.3%), Liberal Democrats 117 (9.2%, +0.3%). Hackney LBC, De Beauvoir: Labour 758 (41.5%, -15.8%), Green 731 (40.3%, +21.3%), Liberal Democrats 133 (7.3%, -6.6%), Independent Network 83 (4.6%, -4.9%), Conservative 82 (4.5%), Women's Equality Party 27 (1.5%). Milton Keyne

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last fortnight of June 2022 were as follows: (23/06/2022): Harlow BC, Bush Fair : Labour 594 (47.1%, +2.6%), Conservative 482 (38.2%, -6.5%), Green 109 (8.6%, +1.0%), Harlow Alliance 76 (6.0%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since this May. [Liberal Democrats did not stand] Kingston-upon-Thames LBC, New Malden Village (deferred election) *: Liberal Democrats 1,217/1,184/1,182 (40.7%), Green 867/Kingston Independent Residents** 724/703 (29.0%), Conservative 467/372/327 (15.6%), Labour 436/429/374 (14.6%). Neath Port Talbot UA, Port Talbot (deferred election): Labour 914/898 (62.2%), Plaid Cymru 367/244 (21.0%), Independents (Davies, Isherwood) 246/171 (14.3%), Green 46/25 (2.4%).  Shropshire UA, Highley: Liberal Democrats 630 (54.5%), Conservative 279 (24.1%, -9.5%), Labour 239 (20.7%, +7.3%), Green 9 (0.8%). Liberal Democrat gain from Independent, where no other Independent defended the seat. Waverley DC, Hin

The US Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organisation (this organisation is based in the US state of Mississippi, of which Jackson is the state capital), which critically has the effect of overturning Roe v Wade [1973] (which guaranteed a constitutional right for women to have abortions) and Planned Parenthood v Casey, meaning that many  Although it is a decision concerning the rights of unborn children and the rights of women, it goes wider than that. Here is why: 1. It is reflective of a polarised and divided society that could split in the near future. The majority of US states with "trigger laws" surrounding significant abortion restrictions are south of Washington DC; the majority of US states that still retain the death penalty are also south of Washington DC (and those states with the strictest abortion laws in the USA are amongst those who have carried out the most executions since Gregg v Georgia [1976], making a mockery of any pro-life c

  Readers, the result of the Wakefield by-election, in case you missed it, were as follows: Nadeem Ahmed, Conservative, 8,241 (30.0%, -17.3%) Akef Akbar, Independent, 2,090 (7.6%) Paul Bickerdike, Christian Peoples' Alliance, 144 (0.5%) Mick Dodgson, Freedom Alliance, 187 (0.7%) Earl Eaton, OMRLP, 171 (0.6%) Jayda Fransen, Independent, 23 (0.1%) Jordan Gaskell, UKIP, 124 (0.5%) David Herdson, Yorkshire Party, 1,182 (4.3%, +2.4%) Therese Hirst, English Democrats, 135 (0.5%) Christopher Jones, Northern Independence Party, 84 (0.3%) Simon Lightwood, Labour, 13,166 (47.9%, +8.1%) Jamie Needle, Liberal Democrats, 508 (1.8%, -2.1%) Ashley Routh, Green Party, 587 (2.2%) Ashlea Simon, Britain First, 311 (1.1%) Chris Walsh, Reform UK, 513 (1.9%, -4.2%) Labour GAIN from Conservative. And here is the result of the Tiverton & Honiton by-election which was declared only five minutes after the Wakefield by-election result was declared: Jordan Donoghue-Morgan, Heritage Party, 167 (0.4%) Andy

The French parliamentary election of 2022 reached its conclusion last night at the end of the second round of voting, and just after Emmanuel Macron's re-election as President of France, delivered a telling blow to his grip on power. M. Macron's alliance, Ensemble (dominated by La Republique-En Marche, but also containing the centrist parties of Territories of Progress, Democratic Movement, and Horizons) emerged as the largest alliance with 245 seats, but this represents a loss of 105 seats across those parties, with LREM alone losing 138 seats. Their heaviest losses came in the Pyrenees and in the Greater Paris region (i.e. Ile-de-France), the site of many a protest against M. Macron's reforms and against the severe lockdown restrictions during 2020 and 2021. This critically meant that Ensemble lost its majority in the French National Assembly, and cooperation from parties outside Ensemble is not forthcoming. The New Ecologic and Social People's Union (NUPES), led by s

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first half of June 2022 were as follows: (9/6/2022):  Breckland DC, Mattishall: Conservative 539 (41.9%, -4.2%), Independent (Oeschle) 486 (37.8%), Labour 260 (20.2%, -5.5%). [Other Independent did not stand] Crawley BC, Southgate: Labour 938 (50.1%, +2.2%), Conservative 790 (42.2%, +3.7%), Green 144 (7.7%). All changes are since 2019. [Liberal Democrats did not stand] Sevenoaks DC, Penshurst, Fordcombe & Chiddingstone: Liberal Democrats 343 (54.4%), Conservative 288 (45.6%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.  (16/6/2022): Rother DC, Brede & Udimore: Conservative 424 (61.4%, +21.5%), Liberal Democrats 266 (38.6%, +30.8%). [Independent, Labour, and UKIP did not stand] Sunderland MBC, Copt Hill (deferred election): Labour 969 (44.5%, -1.2%), Independent (Pearson) 606 (27.8%), Conservative 384 (17.6%, -6.8%), Green 158 (7.3%, -2.0%), Liberal Democrats 61 (2.8%, -3.6%). All changes are since 2021. [UKIP did not stan

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last 3 weeks of May 2022 were as follows: (12/5/22): Lewes DC, Peacehaven West: Labour 641 (54.7%), Conservative 467 (39.8%, +12.0%), Green 32 (2.7%, -13.7%), Liberal Democrats 32 (2.7%, -15.1%). Labour gain from Conservative [No Independent or UKIP candidates this time] Waverley DC, Frensham, Dockenfield & Tilford : Independent 492 (42.1%), Green 354 (30.3%, -4.2%), Conservative 323 (27.6%, -20.6%). Independent gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand] (19/5/22): Lancaster BC, Ellel: Green 547 (39.7%, +20.2%), Labour 418 (30.4%, -1.9%), Conservative 377 (27.4%, -14.6%), Liberal Democrats 35 (2.5%, -3.7%). Green gain from Conservative. (25/5/22) Spelthorne BC, Lakeham & Shepperton Green: Green 903 (51.7%, +31.1%), Conservative 775 (44.4%, +11.6%), TUSC 69 (3.9%). Green gain from Conservative. [Liberal Democrats, Labour, and UKIP did not stand] (26/5/22): Gedling BC, Gedling : Labour 693 (39.4%, -13.5%), Conserv

The Australian federal election of 2022 marked significant electoral sea change in Australia, and not just because of the convincing defeat of Scott Morrison's Liberal/National government. With Labor, the Greens, and "Teal" Independents all uniting against them, the Liberal/National Government dropped to just 58 seats out of 151, worse even than John Howard's defeat in 2007 (and Mr Howard actually lost his own seat, Bennelong, in that election), representing a loss of 18 seats. They also lost 4 of their Senate seats. Not only was Mr Morrison's personal unpopularity a dominating factor in the campaign, but more importantly so were environmental issues and Mr Morrison's inability to tackle them effectively, even after forest fires in Australia made international headlines as a warning about the consequences of global warming. Several Liberal seats that had withstood even Mr Howard's drubbing in 2007, such as Grey and Tangney, fell. Their most notable defeats

What conclusions can be drawn from the 2022 United Kingdom local elections? 1. The 2022 United Kingdom local elections have further entrenched the long-term political divides showcased in the 2019 and 2021 local election results, as shown by the few councils where the Conservatives gained seats having already done so in 2021 and also the councils where they lost control and/or were nearly wiped out, and this will undoubtedly reflect somewhat on general election results come late 2023 or 2024 (even accounting for boundary changes), and by the types of councils all four main parties contesting seats in England (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green) perform well in. Many of these changes will not be reversed for years, if ever, since they are pushed by factors beyond the control of any government or political party e.g. rising house prices driving progressive voters out of London, Brighton etc. and into formerly safely Conservative towns within their reach (e.g. Worthing). 2.

Northern Ireland's councils are not next up for election until 2024, but its Assembly election represented a sea change in Northern Irish politics in many respects, as much as is possible with a Single Transferable Vote system and religious sectarianism still dominating its politics. Sinn Fein, for the very first time, managed to top the Assembly poll with 27 seats, even though this represented no change from 2017, and their vote share only improved to 29%. This happened due to the Alliance Party, the most significant non-sectarian party in Northern Ireland, making a substantial breakthrough by more than doubling its seat total to 17 and finishing third overall, although most of its gains were in heavily unionist constituencies of Northern Ireland, especially County Antrim and County Down, the two counties neighbouring Belfast. This stride, which builds on the substantial progress they made in the 2019 general election, is reflective of Northern Irish society becoming increasingly

  Just as interesting as the results of the local elections in England were those in both Scotland and Wales. The Conservatives endured significant losses in Scotland and Wales just like they did in England; within Scotland they lost 63 councillors which was enough to put them third in terms of council seats in Scotland behind Labour, who have been on the downturn in Scotland ever since the SNP achieved almost a clean sweep of Scotland's Westminster constituencies in 2015. Notable losses included half their seats in Edinburgh, the Scottish capital and the most strongly unionist of Scotland's cities, all but two of their seats in Glasgow, half their seats in East Dunbartonshire, and nearly half their seats in Fife, showing that middle-class unionist areas of Scotland have sharply turned against Boris Johnson's brand of Conservatism, and the consequences of Brexit; they even lost largest party status in East Renfrewshire to the SNP. Conversely, the Conservatives held up bette

The 2022 United Kingdom local elections, particularly in Greater London but also elsewhere in England, in many ways further enforce a new political era in the United Kingdom.  The Conservatives' losses were not as high as many media outlets predicted, but it is important to remember that they were defending significantly fewer wards than in 2019, especially with the creation of the new unitary authorities of Cumberland, North Yorkshire, Somerset, and Westmorland & Furness which replace the respective county councils and districts of those areas from next year. They lost a total of 336 seats overall notionally (there were extensive boundary changes in many London boroughs, as well as some metropolitan boroughs including St Helens), including 84 net losses in Greater London alone even accounting for the gains they made in Harrow, the only council they gained overall control of this year. Retaining control of Newcastle-under-Lyme was their only other crumb of comfort. In Greater L

  As predicted, the French presidential election of 2022 delivered a second term for Emmanuel Macron, albeit with a less decisive result than in 2017, even though he was once again facing Marine Le Pen in the second round. This time, M. Macron won by a margin of 58.5% to 41.5%, compared to his victory of 66.1% to 33.9% against Mme Le Pen. Even though Mme Le Pen's anti-immigrant, racist and nationalist platform was just as despised as ever before, the margin of victory was lower because of a greater abstention rate. In the second round, the turnout was just 72%, the lowest in a French presidential election in 1969; by comparison the turnout in the second round in 2017 was 74.6%. Furthermore, many voters who supported radical socialist activist Jean-Luc Melenchon, Bernie Sanders' French counterpart in some ways, who came just 421,309 votes short of entering the second round, decided to abstain or spoil their ballot papers, seeing a choice between M. Macron and Mme Le Pen as a Hob