The Latvian general election of 2018: Not so harmonic
Whilst I was at conference, Latvia held its 2018 general election, which resulted in a resounding defeat for its governing coalition. This coalition was one of only a handful ever to be led by an alliance involving a Green Party, namely the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS). However, its Prime Minister, Maris Kucinkis, was a member of the regionalist Liepaja Party (in coalition with ZZS) which advocates for the interests of the port city of Liepaja.
Normally when coalition governments lose, the smaller junior partners suffer the heavier losses. However, because the seat numbers in political parties in Baltic states are usually relatively evenly balanced despite a 5% threshold for representation being in place, compared with the ipso facto "red/blue" dominance in Western and Northern Europe, this does not normally happen in Latvia. The leading Unity party lost 15 seats out of 23, giving it just 8, and ZZS dropped from 21 seats to 11, whereas the National Alliance lost only 4 seats, giving it 13. This particular coalition, whilst overall moderately conservative, was an unusual mix indeed: Unity is a pro-European conservative party in the standard European People's Party mould , the Union of Greens and Farmers is an agrarian party who nevertheless can be considered green in a more traditional, purely environmentalist sense, and the National Alliance is a nationalist and strongly conservative party which also has an anti-immigration stance.
The fact many established political parties in Latvia are soft Eurosceptic or hard Eurosceptic, with the key exception of Unity, left a vacuum easily filled by the liberal Development For! party, which won 13 seats. Most of its votes came at the expense of the leading Unity Party, the only other significant pro-EU party in Latvia, reflecting the liberal conservative to liberal switch that frequently occurs with generally affluent and well educated pro-European voters across the EU. The biggest surges amongst parties entering the Saeima (Latvia's parliament) came from the right-wing populist and anti-establishment side, with the Who Owns The State? (KPV) party finishing a good second with 14.25% of the vote and 16 seats. This seat total was equalled by the New Conservative Party, who finished third with 13.59% of the vote; in 2014 they polled a miserable 0.7% by comparison. They mainly drew their vote from lapsed supporters of the Latvia From the Heart Party, which was falling apart before the election started. It lost official party status in the Saeima in 2018 when defections left it with just 4 MPs, and eventually Inguna Sudraba was its only remaining MP. Not surprisingly, Latvia From the Heart's vote plummeted to just 0.84%. The Latvian Association of Regions also lost all its seats, having dropped to 4.14% of the vote, and like Latvia From the Heart it lost much of its support to the New Conservative Party. A key part of its failings was when the Latvian Social Democratic Party, the oldest political party in Latvia, and the Christian Democratic Union withdrew support for the LRA and ran on a separate electoral list. That list made no significant impact at all, polling just 0.2%.
The Progressives, a new social-democratic party featuring green politics with strong support for LGBT rights also failed to enter the Saeima despite being the only Latvian party to occupy that particular "space" in Latvian politics, although it has only existed for 20 months so far and it did not have the resources that the relatively new KPV had (KPV has only existed for just over 2 years). Nevertheless, by polling 2.61% it did win over many voters from the social democratic Harmony Party, which lost 1 seat but having polled 19.8% of the vote it is still the largest party in Latvia. However, 51 seats are needed for a majority in the Saeima and there are no other like minded parties in the Saeima for Harmony to form a coalition with. On the national conservative and right-wing populist side, KPV, the New Conservatives, and the National Alliance only have 45 seats between them, also not enough for a viable coalition. It is likely on these results that a snap election in Latvia will have to be held next year; due to the fragmented composition of Latvia's Saeima there is no possibility of any back-up "grand coalition" option unlike with Sweden's recent elections.
Normally when coalition governments lose, the smaller junior partners suffer the heavier losses. However, because the seat numbers in political parties in Baltic states are usually relatively evenly balanced despite a 5% threshold for representation being in place, compared with the ipso facto "red/blue" dominance in Western and Northern Europe, this does not normally happen in Latvia. The leading Unity party lost 15 seats out of 23, giving it just 8, and ZZS dropped from 21 seats to 11, whereas the National Alliance lost only 4 seats, giving it 13. This particular coalition, whilst overall moderately conservative, was an unusual mix indeed: Unity is a pro-European conservative party in the standard European People's Party mould , the Union of Greens and Farmers is an agrarian party who nevertheless can be considered green in a more traditional, purely environmentalist sense, and the National Alliance is a nationalist and strongly conservative party which also has an anti-immigration stance.
The fact many established political parties in Latvia are soft Eurosceptic or hard Eurosceptic, with the key exception of Unity, left a vacuum easily filled by the liberal Development For! party, which won 13 seats. Most of its votes came at the expense of the leading Unity Party, the only other significant pro-EU party in Latvia, reflecting the liberal conservative to liberal switch that frequently occurs with generally affluent and well educated pro-European voters across the EU. The biggest surges amongst parties entering the Saeima (Latvia's parliament) came from the right-wing populist and anti-establishment side, with the Who Owns The State? (KPV) party finishing a good second with 14.25% of the vote and 16 seats. This seat total was equalled by the New Conservative Party, who finished third with 13.59% of the vote; in 2014 they polled a miserable 0.7% by comparison. They mainly drew their vote from lapsed supporters of the Latvia From the Heart Party, which was falling apart before the election started. It lost official party status in the Saeima in 2018 when defections left it with just 4 MPs, and eventually Inguna Sudraba was its only remaining MP. Not surprisingly, Latvia From the Heart's vote plummeted to just 0.84%. The Latvian Association of Regions also lost all its seats, having dropped to 4.14% of the vote, and like Latvia From the Heart it lost much of its support to the New Conservative Party. A key part of its failings was when the Latvian Social Democratic Party, the oldest political party in Latvia, and the Christian Democratic Union withdrew support for the LRA and ran on a separate electoral list. That list made no significant impact at all, polling just 0.2%.
The Progressives, a new social-democratic party featuring green politics with strong support for LGBT rights also failed to enter the Saeima despite being the only Latvian party to occupy that particular "space" in Latvian politics, although it has only existed for 20 months so far and it did not have the resources that the relatively new KPV had (KPV has only existed for just over 2 years). Nevertheless, by polling 2.61% it did win over many voters from the social democratic Harmony Party, which lost 1 seat but having polled 19.8% of the vote it is still the largest party in Latvia. However, 51 seats are needed for a majority in the Saeima and there are no other like minded parties in the Saeima for Harmony to form a coalition with. On the national conservative and right-wing populist side, KPV, the New Conservatives, and the National Alliance only have 45 seats between them, also not enough for a viable coalition. It is likely on these results that a snap election in Latvia will have to be held next year; due to the fragmented composition of Latvia's Saeima there is no possibility of any back-up "grand coalition" option unlike with Sweden's recent elections.
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