My analysis of local by-elections from 22/11/18

Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections were as follows:

Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Conservative 1540 (52.4%, +12.7%), Labour 828 (28.2%, -8.3%), Liberal Democrats 313 (10.7%, -0.8%), Green 127 (4.3%, -6.6%), WEP 79 (2.7%), Independent (Oyaloyu) 50 (1.7%). [UKIP did not stand]

Westminster LBC, Lancaster Gate: Conservative 913 (47.2%, -1.5%), Labour 684 (35.4%, -1.0%), Liberal Democrats 275 (14.2%, -0.7%), Green 62 (3.2%).

Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Datchet: Conservative 525 (56.0%, -3.1%), National Flood Prevention Party 223 (23.8%), Labour 121 (12.9%, -9.1%), Liberal Democrats 48 (5.1%,-13.8%), Green 21 (2.2%).

Wirral MBC, Upton: Labour 1490 (61.3%, +3.1%), Conservative 705 (29.0%, +0.4%), Green 151 (6.2%, -0.5%), Liberal Democrats 83 (3.4%, -0.8%). [TUSC did not stand] All changes are since May.

The open divisions in the Conservatives, which resulted in a failed attempt to call for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May by the European Research Group (ERG), a neoconservative anti-EU faction in the Conservative Party, has resulted in the Conservatives falling back to their 2010 vote share in opinion polls across the country, sometimes by as much as 7 percentage points. However, it was local issues that dominated these local elections, despite a lack of public support for the Brexit deal amongst Remainers and Leavers alike.

The 10.5% swing to the Conservatives in the Bush Hill Park by-election can be explained mainly by opposition to new cycle lanes in Enfield, and in Greater London transport issues produce strong swings in elections, even in safe wards as the Baker Street No Two Ways campaign in 2016 proved in a by-election in Bryanston & Dorset Square. Incidentally, transport is the joint-biggest issue (along with population growth in Melbourne) in the state election in Victoria, Australia, where voting takes place tomorrow. Opposition to those cycle lanes, despite it being the Labour-controlled council that proposed them, also indirectly caused a substantial Green vote decrease, in addition to the Women's Equality Party taking Green votes when the Greens have no chance of winning the by-election in question.

Concerns about flooding are particularly strong in the south of England, although the National Flood Prevention Party could still only finish second to the Conservatives in a typically solidly Conservative village, Datchet. Flood warnings were recently given for nearby Cookham but Datchet's wealthy London commuter population helped the Conservatives prevail in the end. The Brexit issue caused no noticeable swings in the other two by-elections, which delivered results very similar to those of the local elections in May this year.

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