On the Wentworth by-election in Australia
Today in British time (tomorrow in Australia time) the safely Liberal division of Wentworth in Australia held a by-election, caused by the resignation of former Prime Minister of Australia Malcolm Turnbull. He lost a vote of no confidence two months ago and was replaced by Scott Morrison.
Echoing the woes in the Liberal government of Australia, the Wentworth by-election was gained by Independent candidate Kerryn Phelps, a doctor who is also the first LGBTIQA+ person to have been elected president of the Australian Medical Association. She also became the first non-Liberal member for Wentworth in 87 years, and her win pushes Scott's government into minority status, as the Liberal/National Coalition now only has 74 seats in the Australian House of Representatives.
How did the Liberals lose one of their safest divisions in Australia?
The Liberals' candidate, Dave Sharma, former Australian ambassador to Israel, was no stranger to controversy. During the campaign he had to apologise for an earlier article of his where he wrongly claimed that teachers in New South Wales did not work hard enough, and furthermore his campaign team was also accused of removing others' election campaign posters. (Although posters were stolen during the campaign, there is no significant evidence that Liberals stole them) Last month, the Liberals had lost the safe New South Wales state electorate of Wagga Wagga in a by-election to an Independent (Joe McGirr) and in said by-election the Liberal first preferences had dropped from 53.8% to 25.5%; although they came first on first preferences they were easily defeated by Joe in the final count of said by-election. Therefore, the Liberals' crushing defeat is more related to the state of affairs in the current government than to the campaign of Dave Sharma. In a safe Liberal division where neither Labor nor the Greens had any chance of winning, a notable local candidate with national credentials was the only chance of the division changing hands (this has happened in several other federal by-elections in Australia), and Kerryn Phelps was therefore well placed to win in the circumstances.
Could there be a vote of no confidence in the Australian House of Representatives soon?
Yes, given the internal unease in the governing coalition, but it is likely enough Independent MPs will give confidence and supply for the time being, given that due to Australia having triennial parliaments there will be at most one more year before the next Australian federal election anyway. An earlier election than planned in Australia is not out of the question, though, and the redistribution which has been finalised for the next Australian federal election is unfavourable to the Liberals-one division, Dunkley, becomes notionally Labor and no new Liberal divisions have been created in this redistribution, which also abolishes the South Australian federal division of Port Adelaide and creates two new Labor divisions: Bean in the Australian Capital Territory and Fraser in Victoria.
Echoing the woes in the Liberal government of Australia, the Wentworth by-election was gained by Independent candidate Kerryn Phelps, a doctor who is also the first LGBTIQA+ person to have been elected president of the Australian Medical Association. She also became the first non-Liberal member for Wentworth in 87 years, and her win pushes Scott's government into minority status, as the Liberal/National Coalition now only has 74 seats in the Australian House of Representatives.
How did the Liberals lose one of their safest divisions in Australia?
The Liberals' candidate, Dave Sharma, former Australian ambassador to Israel, was no stranger to controversy. During the campaign he had to apologise for an earlier article of his where he wrongly claimed that teachers in New South Wales did not work hard enough, and furthermore his campaign team was also accused of removing others' election campaign posters. (Although posters were stolen during the campaign, there is no significant evidence that Liberals stole them) Last month, the Liberals had lost the safe New South Wales state electorate of Wagga Wagga in a by-election to an Independent (Joe McGirr) and in said by-election the Liberal first preferences had dropped from 53.8% to 25.5%; although they came first on first preferences they were easily defeated by Joe in the final count of said by-election. Therefore, the Liberals' crushing defeat is more related to the state of affairs in the current government than to the campaign of Dave Sharma. In a safe Liberal division where neither Labor nor the Greens had any chance of winning, a notable local candidate with national credentials was the only chance of the division changing hands (this has happened in several other federal by-elections in Australia), and Kerryn Phelps was therefore well placed to win in the circumstances.
Could there be a vote of no confidence in the Australian House of Representatives soon?
Yes, given the internal unease in the governing coalition, but it is likely enough Independent MPs will give confidence and supply for the time being, given that due to Australia having triennial parliaments there will be at most one more year before the next Australian federal election anyway. An earlier election than planned in Australia is not out of the question, though, and the redistribution which has been finalised for the next Australian federal election is unfavourable to the Liberals-one division, Dunkley, becomes notionally Labor and no new Liberal divisions have been created in this redistribution, which also abolishes the South Australian federal division of Port Adelaide and creates two new Labor divisions: Bean in the Australian Capital Territory and Fraser in Victoria.
Comments
Post a Comment