My analysis of British local by-elections from 8/11/18

Readers, the results of British local by-elections this week were as follows:

Ealing LBC, Dormers Wells: Labour 1868 (72.1%, +1.6%), Conservative 429 (16.6%, +1.2%), Liberal Democrats 188 (7.3%, +3.6%), Green 106 (4.1%, -3.5%). [Polish Pride did not stand]

Harlow BC, Bush Fair: Labour 543 (45.0%, +0.0%), Conservative 460 (38.1%, -0.8%), UKIP 103 (8.5%, -2.5%), Harlow Alliance 63 (5.2%), Liberal Democrats 39 (3.2%, -1.8%). All changes are since May.

Harlow BC, Netteswell: Labour 497 (50.2%, -13.0%), Conservative 254 (25.6%,-0.7%), Harlow Alliance 99 (10.0%), UKIP 98 (9.9%, +3.6%), Liberal Democrats 43 (4.3%, +0.2%).All changes are since May.

Torridge DC, Holsworthy: Conservative 698 (56.4%, +15.7%), Independent (Allen) 314 (25.4%), Liberal Democrats 151 (12.2%, -6.6%),Labour 75 (6.1%). [UKIP and Greens did not stand]

Amongst these local by-elections, the performance of the Harlow Alliance is interesting for good reason. Harlow is a "New Town" and therefore has not had the advantage of a strong long-standing residents association as many historic towns in Britain have, especially those that have been absorbed into larger boroughs like the communities comprising the London Borough of Havering. Residents' Associations normally win over Conservative voters at local level first and foremost, but Harlow's population leans Labour locally so the Harlow Alliance won over mainly Labour voters instead and in marginal Bush Fair ward it prevented a Conservative advance; in fact there was a 0.4% swing to Labour. Over in Holsworthy in Devon, UKIP's absence proved more helpful to the Conservatives than the local Independent, despite the fact he had previously been a councillor for Holsworthy from 2003 to 2007.

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