US midterm elections of 2018: Republicans secure Senate but humiliated in House
The midterm elections of the United States of America produced a very interesting result-the Republicans, under President Donald Trump, secured control of the Senate with 3 gains, but lost control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats.
Due to the lack of spending limits in US elections, and the restrictive ballot access laws, the majority of federal elections in the USA are between just the Democrats and the Republicans, although the Greens and Libertarians are gaining ground very slowly. The Senate elections resulted in independents Angus King and Bernie Sanders easily holding their seats, but surprisingly given the unpopularity of President Trump resulted in the Republicans gaining 3 Senate seats which were up for election this year. Mike Braun defeated Joe Donnelly in Indiana, in the key state of Missouri Josh Hawley defeated Claire McCaskill, and in North Dakota Kevin Cramer decisively defeated Heidi Heiklamp. The Democrats compensated this by gaining a senate seat in Nevada, where Jacky Rosen defeated Dean Heller, although they were unable to oust the more notorious Ted Cruz (for a time a frontrunner in the Republican presidential primary in 2016) in Texas. Amongst third party candidates, only Gary Johnson, who had been the Libertarian candidate for US President in 2016, managed to win more than 5% of the vote in any Senatorial contest this year; he won 15.4% in New Mexico.
Due to the smaller size of congressional districts, the House of Representatives results proved to be more surprising even though many are gerrymandered to suit the interests of dominant parties within a particular state. Unlike the UK, the USA has no federal boundary commission to stop this. Notable before the campaign was the fact that Republican House Leader Paul Ryan was retiring for family reasons, and his retirement was the most prominent amongst Congresspeople. Meanwhile, among Senators Orrin Hatch, who had been a Utah senator since 1976, was the most prominent retiree, and was notably succeeded by 2012 Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. The Democrats gained 30 seats from the Republicans, enough to flip the House of Representatives into Democrat hands in a decisive blow to the Donald. Notable Republican losses include the 7th and 32nd districts of Texas, which cover wealthy parts of Texas' largest cities, Houston and Dallas respectively, and which were as much victims of demographic change as a backlash against the Trump presidency. However, such demographic change also helped the Republicans make their only two House gains this year, both in Minnesota (1st and 8th districts), an agricultural and mining state which forms part of the rust belt and which has been swinging substantially to the Republicans under Donald Trump. Nevertheless, even in Minnesota the Democrats won two house seats (the 2nd and 3rd districts). Also, the Republicans lost two House seats in Michigan despite that state being notable for having voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, despite it usually leaning Democrat at election time. Half of the Democrats' gains occurred when an incumbent retired, resigned to run for a different office, or lost renomination (the British equivalent is deselected), showing the importance of personal votes in marginal seats at federal level. Given the amount of money needed for such a campaign due to a lack of spending limits and most districts covering over 500,000 people, this is not surprising.
Although no parties other than the Democrats and Republicans gained any seats, many Green, Libertarian, and other candidates polled more than 5% in three-way contests as well as two-way contests where one of the two main parties was not standing. In two Californian districts, the Greens polled 22.1% and 25.8% running against only Democratic incumbents. Notable good third place performances include Eric Eliason in Utah with 11% of the vote in Utah's 1st, Thomas Rudbeck polling 6.8% as an Independent in Illinois' 1st, Christopher Manning for the Libertarian Party in New Mexico's 3rd with 5.4%, Kelly Standley for the Libertarian Party in Kansas' 2nd with 5.5%, Joe Crowley managed the best federal performance for the Working Class Party this year in New York's 14th with 6.6%, Marc Koller with 5.5% in Oregon's 3rd, and two Conservatives (New York's Conservatives arose as a split from the Republican Party in the 1960s) managed 5.4% and 5.5% in New York's 7th and 8th districts. Finally, Troy Ray polled 21.7% in Mississippi's 2nd, beating the Republican candidate in a solidly Democratic district.
Even though Republicans still control the US Senate, a Democrat capture of the House of Representatives in the USA marks a decisive turning point against the hard right presidency and administration of Donald Trump.
UPDATE: Kyrsten Sirema won the Arizona Senate election after precincts finished counting, and due to the length of time it takes to count ballots in US Senate and Congressional elections, it is still not fully known whether Rick Scott has won the Florida Senate election.
Due to the lack of spending limits in US elections, and the restrictive ballot access laws, the majority of federal elections in the USA are between just the Democrats and the Republicans, although the Greens and Libertarians are gaining ground very slowly. The Senate elections resulted in independents Angus King and Bernie Sanders easily holding their seats, but surprisingly given the unpopularity of President Trump resulted in the Republicans gaining 3 Senate seats which were up for election this year. Mike Braun defeated Joe Donnelly in Indiana, in the key state of Missouri Josh Hawley defeated Claire McCaskill, and in North Dakota Kevin Cramer decisively defeated Heidi Heiklamp. The Democrats compensated this by gaining a senate seat in Nevada, where Jacky Rosen defeated Dean Heller, although they were unable to oust the more notorious Ted Cruz (for a time a frontrunner in the Republican presidential primary in 2016) in Texas. Amongst third party candidates, only Gary Johnson, who had been the Libertarian candidate for US President in 2016, managed to win more than 5% of the vote in any Senatorial contest this year; he won 15.4% in New Mexico.
Due to the smaller size of congressional districts, the House of Representatives results proved to be more surprising even though many are gerrymandered to suit the interests of dominant parties within a particular state. Unlike the UK, the USA has no federal boundary commission to stop this. Notable before the campaign was the fact that Republican House Leader Paul Ryan was retiring for family reasons, and his retirement was the most prominent amongst Congresspeople. Meanwhile, among Senators Orrin Hatch, who had been a Utah senator since 1976, was the most prominent retiree, and was notably succeeded by 2012 Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. The Democrats gained 30 seats from the Republicans, enough to flip the House of Representatives into Democrat hands in a decisive blow to the Donald. Notable Republican losses include the 7th and 32nd districts of Texas, which cover wealthy parts of Texas' largest cities, Houston and Dallas respectively, and which were as much victims of demographic change as a backlash against the Trump presidency. However, such demographic change also helped the Republicans make their only two House gains this year, both in Minnesota (1st and 8th districts), an agricultural and mining state which forms part of the rust belt and which has been swinging substantially to the Republicans under Donald Trump. Nevertheless, even in Minnesota the Democrats won two house seats (the 2nd and 3rd districts). Also, the Republicans lost two House seats in Michigan despite that state being notable for having voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, despite it usually leaning Democrat at election time. Half of the Democrats' gains occurred when an incumbent retired, resigned to run for a different office, or lost renomination (the British equivalent is deselected), showing the importance of personal votes in marginal seats at federal level. Given the amount of money needed for such a campaign due to a lack of spending limits and most districts covering over 500,000 people, this is not surprising.
Although no parties other than the Democrats and Republicans gained any seats, many Green, Libertarian, and other candidates polled more than 5% in three-way contests as well as two-way contests where one of the two main parties was not standing. In two Californian districts, the Greens polled 22.1% and 25.8% running against only Democratic incumbents. Notable good third place performances include Eric Eliason in Utah with 11% of the vote in Utah's 1st, Thomas Rudbeck polling 6.8% as an Independent in Illinois' 1st, Christopher Manning for the Libertarian Party in New Mexico's 3rd with 5.4%, Kelly Standley for the Libertarian Party in Kansas' 2nd with 5.5%, Joe Crowley managed the best federal performance for the Working Class Party this year in New York's 14th with 6.6%, Marc Koller with 5.5% in Oregon's 3rd, and two Conservatives (New York's Conservatives arose as a split from the Republican Party in the 1960s) managed 5.4% and 5.5% in New York's 7th and 8th districts. Finally, Troy Ray polled 21.7% in Mississippi's 2nd, beating the Republican candidate in a solidly Democratic district.
Even though Republicans still control the US Senate, a Democrat capture of the House of Representatives in the USA marks a decisive turning point against the hard right presidency and administration of Donald Trump.
UPDATE: Kyrsten Sirema won the Arizona Senate election after precincts finished counting, and due to the length of time it takes to count ballots in US Senate and Congressional elections, it is still not fully known whether Rick Scott has won the Florida Senate election.
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