My analysis of British local by-elections from 20/12/18 and other thoughts

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from this week were as follows:

Charnwood BC, Anstey: Conservative 523 (50.8%, +17.1%), Labour 507 (49.2%, +33.6%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats, who did not defend the seat [UKIP and Greens did not stand either]

Cumbria CC, Kent Estuary: Liberal Democrats 1381 (62.0%, +9.0%), Conservative 666 (29.8%, -7.2%), Green 109 (4.9%,-1.1%), Labour 70 (3.14%, -0.7%).

South Lakeland DC, Arnside & Milnthorpe: Liberal Democrats 1319 (59.4%, +7.9%), Conservative 709 (31.9%, +0.2%), Green 125 (5.6%, -6.4%), Labour 68 (3.1%,-1.7%).

Anstey has never had any Labour councillors; its larger predecessor ward, Bradgate, never elected any Labour councillors either. Yet due to the absence of Liberal Democrat and Green candidates, this is the closest Labour have come to winning a council seat in Anstey. UKIP's absence, meanwhile, saved the Conservatives from a locally historic loss.

The Lake District's affluence is strongly dependent on tourism and Brexit could have a catastrophic impact on tourism to the UK, especially since much of it comes from Europe.  This accounts for the 8.1% swing to the Liberal Democrats in the county council by-election and the 4% swing to the Liberal Democrats in the district by-election, although the Liberal Democrats underperformed slightly in 2017 in South Lakeland.

In other news, Labour MP for Peterborough, Fiona Onasanya, was convicted of perverting the course of justice on Wednesday (over a speeding ticket) despite her efforts to prolong the case; by comparison Chris Huhne pleaded guilty when charged with a very similar offence six years ago. She should do the honourable thing and resign immediately, as it is likely, given the fact Mr Huhne received a prison sentence of 8 months despite pleading guilty, that she will receive a sentence of more than 12 months' imprisonment which would disqualify her from membership of the House of Commons.  

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