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Showing posts from July, 2021

My analysis of British local by-elections from 29 July 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections held yesterday were as follows: Basildon BC, Pitsea North West: Conservative 794 (56.5%, +14.8%), Labour 430 (30.6%, -16.0%), Basildon Community Residents 82 (5.8%, -3.2%), Liberal Democrats 57 (4.1%, +1.4%), Reform UK 23 (1.6%), For Britain 19 (1.4%). Conservative gain from Labour. Bassetlaw DC, East Retford South: Conservative 493 (40.1%, +23.1%), Independent (Richards) 488 (39.7%), Labour 247 (20.1%, -42.2%). Conservative gain from Labour. [UKIP did not stand] Harrogate DC, Knaresborough Scriven Park: Liberal Democrats 635 (56.6%, +19.6%), Conservative 384 (34.3%, -4.2%), Labour 91 (8.1%, -16.4%), UKIP 11 (1.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. Norfolk CC, Gaywood South: Liberal Democrats 648 (39.3%, +20.8%), Labour 561 (34.0%, -1.6%), Conservative 378 (22.9%, -25.3%), Independent (Talbot) 35 (2.1%), UKIP 28 (1.7%, -3.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. South Tyneside MBC, Felgate & Hedworth: Labour 850 (49.1

My analysis of local by-elections from 15 July and 22 July 2021

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections of yesterday (and 15 July last week) were as follows: (15/7/21): Sandwell MBC, Tividale: Conservative 986 (52.6%, +5.6%), Labour 810 (43.2%, -9.8%), Independent (Kutebura) 40 (2.1%), Liberal Democrats 30 (1.9%), TUSC 9 (0.5%). Conservative gain from Labour; all changes are since May. (22/7/21) : Camden LBC, Fortune Green: Liberal Democrats 1197 (46.7%, +12.4%), Labour 849 (33.1%, -3.9%), Conservative 518 (20.2%, +1.6%). [Greens did not stand] Dover DC, Alkham & Capel-le-Ferne: Conservative 315 (48.7%, -3.4%), Liberal Democrats 173 (26.7%, -9.6%), Labour 101 (15.6%, -4.0%), Green 58 (9.0%). Leicester UA, Humberstone & Hamilton: Conservative 1062 (44.7%, +20.0%), Labour 790 (33.2%, -15.5%), Liberal Democrats 262 (11.0%, +0.6%), Green 190 (8.0%, -8.1%), Reform UK 37 (1.6%), For Britain 37 (1.6%). Conservative gain from Labour. North Somerset UA, Congresbury & Paxton: Green 594 (64.1%), Conservative 270 (29.3%, +15.7%), Labou

The Bulgarian snap election of July 2021-can anti-corruption parties find a way forward?

The Bulgarian election of July 2021, called just three months after the previous Bulgarian parliamentary election due to an inability to form a viable coalition government, resulted in a triumph for There is Such a People, the key anti-corruption party, and other anti-corruption parties. ITN (There is Such a People) narrowly finished top of the poll with 65 seats, two ahead of the governing GERB-SDS alliance which won 63, down 12 from April. The main opposition, the BSP (Bulgarian Socialist Party) also suffered significant losses, losing 7 seats bringing them down to 36, which ensures no "grand coalition" can form in Bulgaria after this election. In both cases disillusionment amongst their supporters was the main reason for their losses; with only 3 months having elapsed since the last election the issues were virtually the same as in the April 2021 Bulgarian election that I analysed here: https://alansgreenthoughts.blogspot.com/2021/04/on-bulgarian-election-of-2021-oldish.ht

All change for Moldova in 2021 snap election

The snap election in Moldova which took place last Sunday brought one of the most dramatic political changes for a country in the Balkans which is also one of Europe's poorest, and one of a minority of European countries who are not part of the European Union. The pro-European liberal Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) managed to win an impressive 63 seats out of 101, and with 52.8% of the vote, the first time a non-communist and non-socialist party in Moldova has been able to achieve this feat, which is virtually impossible in most democracies using only list-PR and no other method for electing MPs. The key reason for their surge during this snap election was the popularity of Moldovan President Maia Sandu, who claimed the result was "today and end to the reign of thieves in Moldova". PAS'  The outgoing governmental parties, who had formed the Electoral Bloc of Communists and Socialists Alliance, meanwhile endured a spectacular defeat. They won only 32 seats, just

My analysis of local by-elections from the first two Thursdays of July 2021

Readers, the results of local by-elections in Britain that occurred on 1 July and 8 July 2021 were as follows: (1/7/21): Chelmsford DC, Writtle: Conservative 716 (50.0%, -11.2%), Liberal Democrats 572 (39.9%, +1.1%), Green 78 (5.4%), Labour 67 (4.7%). Elmbridge BC, Cobham & Downside: Liberal Democrats 890 (49.8%, +28.1%), Conservative 778 (43.5%, -21.0%), Green 54 (3.0%), Labour 47 (2.6%, -5.8%), Reform UK 19 (1.1%, -1.5%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative; all changes are since May. [UKIP did not stand] Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Conservative 1694 (55.2%, +15.4%), Labour 875 (28.5%, -8.0%), Green 233 (7.6%, -3.4%), Liberal Democrats 225 (7.3%, -2.5%), TUSC 27 (0.9%), Taking The Initiative 15 (0.5%). Islington LBC, Tollington: Labour 1243 (56.7%, -16.1%), Green 730 (33.3%, +19.9%), Conservative 127 (5.8%, +0.2%), Liberal Democrats 94 (4.4%, -4.0%). Newark & Sherwood DC, Bridge (double election): Conservative 310/257 (35.3%, +14.7%), Independents 236/181 (25.5%), Labour

How a shock Labour hold occurred in the Batley & Spen by-election

  Readers, in case you are not already aware, the results of the Batley & Spen by-election that occurred yesterday were as follows: Paul Bickerdike, Christian Peoples' Alliance, 102 (0.3%) Mike Davies, Alliance for Green Socialism, 104 (0.3%) Jayda Fransen, Independent, 50 (0.1%) George Galloway, Workers' Party of Great Britain, 8,264 (21.9%) Tom Gordon, Liberal Democrats, 1,254 (3.3%, -1.4%) Alan "Howling Laud" Hope, OMRLP, 107 (0.3%) Susan Laird, Heritage Party, 33 (0.1%) Kim Leadbeater, Labour, 13,296 (35.3%, -7.4%) Therese Muchiewicz, English Democrats, 207 (0.5%) Ollie Purser, SDP, 66 (0.2%) Corey Robinson, Yorkshire Party, 816 (2.2%) Andrew Smith, Rejoin EU, 75 (0.2%) Ryan Stephenson, Conservative, 12,973 (34.6%, -1.6%) Jack Thomson, UKIP, 151 (0.4%) Jonathan Tilt, Freedom Alliance, 100 (0.3%) Anne-Marie Waters, For Britain, 97 (0.3%) Labour HOLD. It was predicted by almost all political commentators that, especially with George Galloway's vicious campai