My analysis of British local by-elections from 18/10/18 and other thoughts
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 18/10/18 were as follows:
Hackney LBC, Victoria: Labour 1311 (57.6%, -11.3%), Liberal Democrats 436 (19.2%, +10.6%), Green 296 (13.0%, -4.0%), Conservative 148 (6.5%, -1.2%), Women's Equality Party 84 (3.7%).
Oxfordshire CC, Iffley Fields & St Mary's: Labour 1162 (48.6%, +1.7%), Green 1087 (45.4%, +4.7%), Conservative 100 (4.2%, -1.4%), Liberal Democrats 43 (1.8%, -5.0%).
In light of the recent Green surges in Europe, British voters would in theory have been more motivated to vote Green this week. Surprisingly this did not occur, with the Greens achieving a 1.5% swing in their favour in Oxfordshire which was however not enough for them to win the division and return to Oxfordshire County Council, where they had had seats from 1993 to 2017. This was in spite of unofficial tacit Liberal Democrat support for the Greens, hence the Liberal Democrats' sharp decrease in vote share. This division, owing to the high competition between both Greens and Labour, retained a high turnout by local election standards and Labour even managed to increase its vote share.
Hackney, one of the most Green-minded London boroughs especially in the wards covered by Hackney North & Stoke Newington, saw renewed efforts by the Liberal Democrats in a safely Labour ward where normally only the Green Party are the main competitors. The Liberal Democrats achieved an 11% swing against Labour in a very safe Labour ward (most Hackney wards are safely Labour) and pushed the Greens into third place in that by-election, and the WEP also played their part in the Greens falling from second to third place.
Northern Ireland does not normally have local government by-elections; candidates are normally co-opted by the same party as that of the departing councillor. However in the case of Carrick Castle ward in Mid & East Antrim, covering the port town of Carrickfergus, Jim Brown, the deceased Independent councillor, had not nominated any substitutes who passed Electoral Commission tests for substitution in case of death, disqualification or resignation, meaning a by-election had to be held. These were the results of the by-election, which took place yesterday as well:
Mid & East Antrim UA, Carrick Castle (1st preference votes): DUP 1106, UUP 668, Alliance 556, Democrats & Veterans 472, Independent (Sibley) 71. DUP gain from Independent where no other Independent candidate was defending the seat.
Given that Carrickfergus is overwhelmingly Protestant (85%) this result was hardly surprising, and nor was the lack of an SDLP or Sinn Fein candidate. The Independent, Wiliam Sibley, was an advocate of reiki healing which hardly goes down well in Antrim's conservative and Presbyterian strongholds. Due to Northern Irish politics being so fundamentally different from British politics and its sectarian nature being largely unaffected by British politics, I have listed this by-election separately from both the English local by-elections that took place the same day.
In other news, today is your last chance to respond to the Government's consultation on the Gender Recognition Act-please click on this link: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/reform-of-the-gender-recognition-act-2004 and respond by 11pm tonight. It is important that key safeguards and exemptions, designed for safety reasons and to protect human rights, are maintained and (if necessary) modernised within the Act.
Hackney LBC, Victoria: Labour 1311 (57.6%, -11.3%), Liberal Democrats 436 (19.2%, +10.6%), Green 296 (13.0%, -4.0%), Conservative 148 (6.5%, -1.2%), Women's Equality Party 84 (3.7%).
Oxfordshire CC, Iffley Fields & St Mary's: Labour 1162 (48.6%, +1.7%), Green 1087 (45.4%, +4.7%), Conservative 100 (4.2%, -1.4%), Liberal Democrats 43 (1.8%, -5.0%).
In light of the recent Green surges in Europe, British voters would in theory have been more motivated to vote Green this week. Surprisingly this did not occur, with the Greens achieving a 1.5% swing in their favour in Oxfordshire which was however not enough for them to win the division and return to Oxfordshire County Council, where they had had seats from 1993 to 2017. This was in spite of unofficial tacit Liberal Democrat support for the Greens, hence the Liberal Democrats' sharp decrease in vote share. This division, owing to the high competition between both Greens and Labour, retained a high turnout by local election standards and Labour even managed to increase its vote share.
Hackney, one of the most Green-minded London boroughs especially in the wards covered by Hackney North & Stoke Newington, saw renewed efforts by the Liberal Democrats in a safely Labour ward where normally only the Green Party are the main competitors. The Liberal Democrats achieved an 11% swing against Labour in a very safe Labour ward (most Hackney wards are safely Labour) and pushed the Greens into third place in that by-election, and the WEP also played their part in the Greens falling from second to third place.
Northern Ireland does not normally have local government by-elections; candidates are normally co-opted by the same party as that of the departing councillor. However in the case of Carrick Castle ward in Mid & East Antrim, covering the port town of Carrickfergus, Jim Brown, the deceased Independent councillor, had not nominated any substitutes who passed Electoral Commission tests for substitution in case of death, disqualification or resignation, meaning a by-election had to be held. These were the results of the by-election, which took place yesterday as well:
Mid & East Antrim UA, Carrick Castle (1st preference votes): DUP 1106, UUP 668, Alliance 556, Democrats & Veterans 472, Independent (Sibley) 71. DUP gain from Independent where no other Independent candidate was defending the seat.
Given that Carrickfergus is overwhelmingly Protestant (85%) this result was hardly surprising, and nor was the lack of an SDLP or Sinn Fein candidate. The Independent, Wiliam Sibley, was an advocate of reiki healing which hardly goes down well in Antrim's conservative and Presbyterian strongholds. Due to Northern Irish politics being so fundamentally different from British politics and its sectarian nature being largely unaffected by British politics, I have listed this by-election separately from both the English local by-elections that took place the same day.
In other news, today is your last chance to respond to the Government's consultation on the Gender Recognition Act-please click on this link: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/reform-of-the-gender-recognition-act-2004 and respond by 11pm tonight. It is important that key safeguards and exemptions, designed for safety reasons and to protect human rights, are maintained and (if necessary) modernised within the Act.
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