My analysis of local by-elections from the last half of September 2022

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last two weeks of September 2022 were as follows:

(22/9/22):

Coventry MBC, Sherbourne: Conservative 1,409 (51.2%, +12.2%), Labour 895 (32.5%, -7.4%), Green 139 (5.0%, -4.2%), TUSC 125 (4.5%, +0.2%), Liberal Democrats 94 (3.4%, -1.4%), Coventry Citizens 92 (3.3%, +0.6%). Conservative gain from Labour; all changes are since May.

Gwynedd UA, Llanuwychllyn: Plaid Cymru 368 (95.8%), Liberal Democrats 16 (4.2%).

Stoke-on-Trent UA, Bentilee & Ubberley: Labour 469 (62.8%, +28.6%), City Independent 143 (19.1%, -1.1%), Conservative 138 (18.4%, +10.7%). [UKIP and For Britain did not stand]

Wealden DC, Maresfield: Green 651 (61.2%, +30.3%), Conservative 411 (38.8%, -23.3%). Green gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand]

(29/9/22):

Argyll & Bute UA, Kintyre & The Islands (1st preferences): Independent (Redman) 591 (32.7%, +16.3%), SNP 525 (29.1%, -0.8%), Liberal Democrats 265 (14.7%, -1.7%), Conservative 194 (10.7%, +1.2%), Green 176 (9.7%), Labour 55 (3.0%, -1.2%). Independent gain from another Independent.

Harborough DC, Market Harborough-Logan: Liberal Democrats 582 (45.7%, +12.5%), Conservative 382 (30.0%, +2.3%), Labour 250 (19.6%, +10.3%), Independent (Lambert) 60 (4.7%, -6.7%).

Newark & Sherwood DC, Edwinstowe & Clipstone: Labour 804 (59.8%, +10.2%), Conservative 540 (40.2%, -10.2%). Labour gain from Conservative.

Oxford BC, Hinksey Park: Labour 801 (51.3%, -4.7%), Green 305 (19.5%, +7.0%), Independent (Woodin) 270 (17.3%, +1.4%), Liberal Democrats 118 (7.6%, -1.9%), Conservative 60 (3.8%, -2.4%), TUSC 8 (0.5%). All changes are since 2021.

Rhondda Cynon Taf UA, Ynysbywl: Plaid Cymru 435 (59.0%, +6.8%), Labour 246 (33.4%, +0.4%), Conservative 34 (4.6%, -1.4%), Gwlad 14 (1.9%, -6.9%), Green 8 (1.1%).

Rossendale DC, Facit & Shawforth: Conservative 337 (42.5%, -11.6%), Independent (Olaolu) 214 (27.6%), Labour 203 (26.2%, -18.6%), Green 20 (2.6%).

Rossendale DC, Helmshore: Conservative 736 (50.6%, +4.2%), Labour 540 (37.1%, +0.5%), Green 74 (5.1%, -6.4%), Liberal Democrats 62 (4.3%), Independent (Stansfield) 42 (2.9%, -2.4%).

Warrington UA, Grappenhall: Liberal Democrats 1,073/1,047 (56.4%, +8.5%), Conservative 524/462 (26.2%, -8.2%), Labour 193 (10.3%, +0.1%), Green 135 (7.2%, +0.4%).

The most critical by-election of this list was in Edwinstowe & Clipstone, where Labour achieved a 10.2% swing in their favour in one of the most competitive wards in the country, and whose demographics now resemble those of "Red Wall" constituencies. Just before those by-elections, Labour recorded a 33-point lead over the Conservatives in a YouGov poll (which was almost matched in a subsequent Redfield & Wilton poll), and if the statistics were repeated in a general election the Conservatives would be lucky to clinch a distant second place in seat terms. Critically, the Conservatives lost another seat in Wealden to the Green Party, who are making strong inroads locally into rural Conservative areas in the south, and not just in Suffolk either. However, a week later, a split in the Green vote by Independent candidate Deborah Glass Woodin (widow of former Green Party Principal Speaker Mike Woodin, and who herself was a Green Party county councillor in Isis, Oxford from 2005 to 2009), thwarted hopes of breaking through into Hinksey Park, a safe Labour ward which nevertheless has a strong Green vote.

If you are wondering why the Conservatives' by-election performance does not quite reflect this, this is due to local circumstances prevailing in their gain of Sherbourne and their holds in Rossendale (a town councillor in Facit & Shawforth split both the Conservative and Labour votes, in fact), as well as considerable numbers of postal votes (which tend to lean Conservative in practice). Labour's strong performance in Stoke is a sign they are in for a substantial comeback in Stoke, where just two years ago the Conservatives historically became the largest party in what was once regarded as an impenetrable Labour fortress via defections.



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