My analysis of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of July 2022

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of July 2022 were as follows:

(7/7/22):

Camden LBC, Hampstead Town: Liberal Democrats 919 (40.9%, +20.1%), Conservative 620 (27.6%, -11.8%), Labour 559 (24.9%, -15.0%), Green 104 (4.6%), Independent (Livingstone) 44 (2.0%), National Housing Party 1 (0.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.

Chesterfield BC, Hollingwood & Inkersall: Labour 747 (48.5%, +15.1%), Independent (Rhodes) 676 (43.9%, -9.2%)*, Green 118 (7.7%). Labour gain from Independent. [Conservatives and Liberal Democrats did not stand]

Epsom & Ewell BC, West Ewell: Residents' Association 549 (43.4%, -28.9%), Labour 395 (31.2%, +20.4%), Conservative 205 (16.2%, +8.3%), Liberal Democrats 117 (9.2%, +0.3%).

Hackney LBC, De Beauvoir: Labour 758 (41.5%, -15.8%), Green 731 (40.3%, +21.3%), Liberal Democrats 133 (7.3%, -6.6%), Independent Network 83 (4.6%, -4.9%), Conservative 82 (4.5%), Women's Equality Party 27 (1.5%).

Milton Keynes UA, Woughton & Fishermead: Labour 1,355 (73.3%, +15.6%), Conservative 340 (18.4%, -6.5%), Liberal Democrats 154 (8.3%, +2.4%). All changes are since May. [Greens did not stand] 

Mole Valley DC, Charlwood: Green 284 (41.7%, +13.6%), Liberal Democrats 210 (30.8%, +19.5%), Conservative 166 (24.4%, -22.0%), Labour 21 (3.1%). Green gain from Conservative. [UKIP did not stand] 

Welwyn Hatfield BC, Hatfield Central: Labour 599 (53.7%, +8.6%), Conservative 273 (24.4%, -9.2%), Liberal Democrats 183 (16,4%, -4.8%), Abolish the BBC TV Licence 61 (5.5%)**. All changes are since May.

West Sussex CC, Worthing West: Labour 1,262 (52.0%, +5.7%), Conservative 795 (32.8%, -6.4%), Liberal Democrats 253 (9.7%, +5.3%), Green 133 (5.5%, -1.8%). [No Independent candidates this time]

*Mr Rhodes was supported by the Community Independents.

**Description used by Melvyn Jones, who previously stood under the description "Abolish Hatfield Town Council".

(14/7/22):

Breckland DC, Thetford Boudica: Labour 398 (51.0%, +2.1%), Conservative 383 (49.0%, -2.1%). Labour gain from Conservative.

Coventry MBC, Binley & Willenhall: Labour 934 (36.2%, -5.1%), Conservative 765 (29.6%, +0.7%), Coventry Citizens 746 (28.9%, +9.6%), Democracy & Freedom 91 (3.5%, +0.1%), TUSC 46 (1.8%). All changes are since May. [Greens did not stand]

Hyndburn BC, Overton: Labour 773 (52.5%, +5.9%), Conservative 600 (40.5%, -0.5%), Independent (Miller) 71 (4.8%), Reform UK 36 (2.4%, -10.2%). All changes are since 2021.

North Tyneside MBC, Camperdown: Labour 873 (59.0%, -9.3%), Conservative 388 (26.2%, -1.9%), Liberal Democrats 124 (8.4%), Green 58 (3.9%, -3.4%), UKIP 36 (2.4%). All changes are since May.

South Somerset DC, Brympton: Liberal Democrats 582 (58.6%, +4.2%), Conservative 251 (25.3%, -9.2%), Green 71 (7.1%), Labour 61 (6.1%, -4.3%), Independent (Richards) 29 (2.9%). 

Wandsworth LBC, Tooting Broadway: Labour 1,429 (62.2%, +1.7%), Conservative 491 (21.4%, +3.2%), Green 285 (12.4%, -3.3%), Liberal Democrats 94 (4.1%, -1.6%).

Warwickshire CC, Arden: Conservative 1,609 (59.3%, -14.7%), Liberal Democrats 854 (31.5%, +24.3%), Labour 251 (9.2%, -0.8%). [Greens did not stand]

Wirral MBC, Liscard: Labour 1,304 (64.8%, +7.9%), Conservative 370 (18.4%, -7.8%), Green 172 (8.5%, +0.4%), Liberal Democrats 167 (8.3%, +1.7%). All changes are since 2021

(NB: A by-election in Oakham South, Rutland, would have been held yesterday but the Liberal Democrat winner ran unopposed; result here is Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative).

Amidst the Conservative Party leadership election, due to conclude in 7 1/2 weeks, the Conservatives' terrible run in British local by-elections continued, losing 3 of the 4 wards up for election this past fortnight that were vacated by the Conservatives, including Oakham South where the Conservatives did not even defend the seat despite Rutland overall being a long-standing Conservative heartland. Only the result in Binley & Willenhall, Coventry, was even remotely positive for the Conservatives although in this case the localist Coventry Citizens party split both the Labour vote and the Conservative vote. 

Although Labour generally did well, notably by gaining Thetford Boudica from the Conservatives (and Thetford is normally a promising town for the Conservatives; this proved especially so in the post-EU membership referendum aftermath), their loss of Hampstead Town to the Liberal Democrats, especially combined with a fall to third place, was a stark reminder of voter dissatisfaction with both main parties, as well as progressive voters not having much faith in Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. As for their surge in Epsom & Ewell, this is attributable to affluent public sector executives moving to this area; even though Epsom & Ewell has house prices comparable with many London boroughs. This also explains why Labour's recent general election results in the Epsom & Ewell constituency (which also includes the town of Ashtead in the Mole Valley district) were not as bad as most Surrey constituencies, considering Epsom & Ewell's demographics and wealth which is generally in line with Surrey as a whole.

The Greens' spectacular gain of Charlwood, Mole Valley, gives them their first district councillor ever in Mole Valley, Surrey, one of the wealthiest districts in the United Kingdom outside London, and compensates for their near miss in De Beauvoir ward, Hackney. The Liberal Democrats did not make as significant progress this fortnight as before, primarily because many of the contests this past fortnight were primarily Labour vs. Conservative, and their comfortable hold in Brympton is largely academic as South Somerset District Council, along with said Brympton ward, will cease to exist next May; other district and borough councils where new unitary elections were held this May (i.e. Cumbria, now split between Cumberland and Westmorland & Furness, North Yorkshire, and Somerset) have already ceased holding by-elections for vacancies occurring on those councils.



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