My analysis of British local by-elections from the second fortnight of July 2022

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the second fortnight of July 2022 were as follows:

(20/07/22):

Basildon BC, Nethermayne: Independent (Larkin) 909 (62.7%, -10.4%), Conservative 233 (16.1%, +8.9%), Labour 169 (11.7%, -0.2%), Liberal Democrats 102 (7.0%, +3.8%), Reform UK 37 (2.6%). All changes are since 2019.

(21/07/22):

Lancaster BC, Harbour: Labour 555 (47.9%, +4.5%), Liberal Democrats 479 (41.4%), Conservative 124 (10.7%, -2.6%). [Morecambe Bay Independents did not stand]

North Warwickshire DC, Hartshill: Conservative 351 (53.3%, +4.9%), Labour 307 (46.7%, +13.0%). [Greens did not stand]

South Staffordshire DC, Penkridge North East & Acton Trussel: Conservative 388 (47.8%), Liberal Democrats 378 (46.6%), Labour 45 (5.6%).

(28/07/22):

Colchester BC, Lexden & Braiswick: Conservative 1,372 (63.7%, +9.4%), Liberal Democrats 621 (28.8%, +10.6%), Labour 161 (7.5%, -3.7%). All changes are since 2021. [Greens did not stand]

North East Derbyshire DC, Pilsey & Morton: Labour 806 (65.9%, +31.9%), Conservative 361 (29.5%, +15.5%), Green 34 (2.8%), Liberal Democrats 22 (1.8%).

We are now in the main holiday session, and councils rarely schedule by-elections during late July or during August. The only significant events of note in this set of by-elections were two near-misses by the Liberal Democrats: one in Harbour, Morecambe, where the localist vote that normally goes to the Morecambe Bay Independents in Morecambe transferred to the Liberal Democrats readily, and one in Penkridge North East & Acton Trussel, which in 2019 had seen 2 Conservative councillors elected unopposed, and which in fact has only seen one contested election since its creation in 2003. Recent by-elections have shown that the Conservatives remain complacent in heartlands such as South Staffordshire and Rutland.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Local election predictions 2025

  This year's local elections in England are particularly notable since due to upcoming local government reorganisation, these elections will, if said reorganisation proceeds as planned, will be the last ever county council elections under the current two-tier system of local government, as introduced by the Local Government Act 1972.  Since 2007, many former county councils have already been replaced by one or more unitary authorities, and the remaining two-tier councils of Cambridgeshire, Derbyshire, Devon, East Sussex, Essex, Gloucestershire, Hampshire, Hertfordshire, Kent, Lancashire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Nottinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Staffordshire, Suffolk, Surrey, Warwickshire, West Sussex and Worcestershire are set to follow suit by 2028, and some extant unitary authorities will likely be absorbed in the process. In fact, county council elections in East Sussex, Essex, Hampshire, Norfolk, Suffolk, Surrey and West Sussex that were due to take place this...
Read more

The British general election of 2024, part 3-Workers Party, SDP, Independents and all the rest

In addition to the five parties I mentioned in the first 2 parts of this analysis, other political parties, as well as Independent candidates more than ever before, made a notable impact in this year's British general election. The Workers' Party, the newest creation of George Galloway, failed to make the impact pollsters predicted it would, partly because it only stood 152 candidates when it had announced more than 250 initially, although this was still enough for it to qualify for a Party Political Broadcast, and also because like Reform UK some of its candidates were mired in controversy; for example, their candidate in Wakefield & Rothwell, former rugby player Keith Mason, was initially suspended over past offensive Tweets he had posted but later reinstated It polled only 0.7% of the vote as a result, and won no seats; in fact George Galloway himself lost Rochdale, which he gained in the 2024 by-election there, lost by 1,440 to Huffington Post journalist Paul Waugh, not...
Read more

Election predictions of 2026 - English local elections

This year, local elections are more unpredictable in Britain than ever before, especially with the the 29 district and borough councils whose elections were initially going to be postponed owing to local government reorganisation in those areas (which will convert all remaining 2-tier counties into 1 or more unitary authorities, thus ending the 2-tier system across the UK entirely), now in fact holding these elections on 7th May as planned; the postponements were rescinded in February following a legal challenge by Reform UK. Nevertheless, with local government reorganisation continuing its course with 2 new unitaries emerging as a result of said reorganisation (East and West Surrey) holding elections next month, this will be the final election for many authorities in the UK. The election map will also become more colourful with not only the Greens and Reform set to win record numbers of seats, but also other minor parties emerging, mainly at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives...
Read more