My analysis of British local by-elections from the second fortnight of July 2022

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the second fortnight of July 2022 were as follows:

(20/07/22):

Basildon BC, Nethermayne: Independent (Larkin) 909 (62.7%, -10.4%), Conservative 233 (16.1%, +8.9%), Labour 169 (11.7%, -0.2%), Liberal Democrats 102 (7.0%, +3.8%), Reform UK 37 (2.6%). All changes are since 2019.

(21/07/22):

Lancaster BC, Harbour: Labour 555 (47.9%, +4.5%), Liberal Democrats 479 (41.4%), Conservative 124 (10.7%, -2.6%). [Morecambe Bay Independents did not stand]

North Warwickshire DC, Hartshill: Conservative 351 (53.3%, +4.9%), Labour 307 (46.7%, +13.0%). [Greens did not stand]

South Staffordshire DC, Penkridge North East & Acton Trussel: Conservative 388 (47.8%), Liberal Democrats 378 (46.6%), Labour 45 (5.6%).

(28/07/22):

Colchester BC, Lexden & Braiswick: Conservative 1,372 (63.7%, +9.4%), Liberal Democrats 621 (28.8%, +10.6%), Labour 161 (7.5%, -3.7%). All changes are since 2021. [Greens did not stand]

North East Derbyshire DC, Pilsey & Morton: Labour 806 (65.9%, +31.9%), Conservative 361 (29.5%, +15.5%), Green 34 (2.8%), Liberal Democrats 22 (1.8%).

We are now in the main holiday session, and councils rarely schedule by-elections during late July or during August. The only significant events of note in this set of by-elections were two near-misses by the Liberal Democrats: one in Harbour, Morecambe, where the localist vote that normally goes to the Morecambe Bay Independents in Morecambe transferred to the Liberal Democrats readily, and one in Penkridge North East & Acton Trussel, which in 2019 had seen 2 Conservative councillors elected unopposed, and which in fact has only seen one contested election since its creation in 2003. Recent by-elections have shown that the Conservatives remain complacent in heartlands such as South Staffordshire and Rutland.

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