My analysis of the Swedish general election of 2022

The Swedish general election of 2022 generated some surprising results, despite also averting pollsters' predictions significantly.

The last three years in particular proved to be a rough ride for the Social Democrat led governments of Stefan Lofven and Magdalena Andersson respectively. Although Sweden's laxer approach to the COVID-19 pandemic (compared to most countries in Europe, which imposed lockdowns during much of 2020 and 2021, an approach that arguably caused more problems than it solved) proved effective, Mr Lofven's desire to lift the austerity tax (which only affected a wealthy minority, similar in nature to the wealth tax initiative of former French President Francois Hollande) and to join NATO proved contentious, with two of the Social Democrats' former coalition partners (the Swedish Greens and Swedish Left Party, who had both pulled out of confidence and supply) unsurprisingly voting against Swedish accession to NATO membership (all other parties in the Riksdag voted in favour). The Social Democrats surprisingly managed to gain 8 seats, bringing them to 108, whilst the Left Party lost 4 seats, with the Greens managing to gain 2 seats; earlier this year pollsters predicted they would be eliminated from the Riksdag by dropping below the 4% threshold; their time in coalition clearly was not rewarded although pulling out of confidence and supply helped them retain their core voters. The Centre Party, which only lent unofficial support, was the party that actually incurred the most significant losses of this election, losing 7 seats.

The most significant shock of this Swedish election was the nationalist right Sweden Democrats gaining as many 11 seats, pushing the Moderates into third place in the poll in the process, even though the Moderates themselves lost only 3 seats. Both the Christian Democrats and the Liberals, the other parties in the "blue bloc", also lost seats (3 and 4 seats respectively), although these two parties have been struggling with a long-term decline in their voter base, much like similar Scandinavian parties. For the past 8 years the Sweden Democrats have been absorbing reactionary votes in Sweden like a sponge, gaining seats for the 4th consecutive Swedish general election, and their rise in support, combined with a significant drop in turnout (from 87.1% to 81.3%, still high by any standards), is a clear sign of growing discontent amongst socially conservative voters living far from either Stockholm, Gothenburg or Malmo (~25% of the Swedish population lives in one of these three cities). Even progressive and liberal nations like Sweden are not immune to the city/town & country political divide that is firmly taking root in democratic nations around the world. 

Given that a "cordon sanitaire" is still in place regarding the Sweden Democrats (with similar measures applying to similar parties like AfD in Germany), the one-seat majority of the "blue bloc" in the new Riksdag will be problematic for forming a new coalition government. It is likely that the Liberals, Greens, Left and Centre Parties will give confidence and supply to the Social Democrats to stop Jimmie Akesson becoming the next Prime Minister of Sweden, resulting in Ms Andersson continuing as Swedish PM.

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