The Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton by-elections: Both sides of the Wash

 Readers, the result of the Wakefield by-election, in case you missed it, were as follows:

Nadeem Ahmed, Conservative, 8,241 (30.0%, -17.3%)

Akef Akbar, Independent, 2,090 (7.6%)

Paul Bickerdike, Christian Peoples' Alliance, 144 (0.5%)

Mick Dodgson, Freedom Alliance, 187 (0.7%)

Earl Eaton, OMRLP, 171 (0.6%)

Jayda Fransen, Independent, 23 (0.1%)

Jordan Gaskell, UKIP, 124 (0.5%)

David Herdson, Yorkshire Party, 1,182 (4.3%, +2.4%)

Therese Hirst, English Democrats, 135 (0.5%)

Christopher Jones, Northern Independence Party, 84 (0.3%)

Simon Lightwood, Labour, 13,166 (47.9%, +8.1%)

Jamie Needle, Liberal Democrats, 508 (1.8%, -2.1%)

Ashley Routh, Green Party, 587 (2.2%)

Ashlea Simon, Britain First, 311 (1.1%)

Chris Walsh, Reform UK, 513 (1.9%, -4.2%)

Labour GAIN from Conservative.

And here is the result of the Tiverton & Honiton by-election which was declared only five minutes after the Wakefield by-election result was declared:

Jordan Donoghue-Morgan, Heritage Party, 167 (0.4%)

Andy Foan, Reform UK, 481 (1.1%)

Richard Foord, Liberal Democrats, 22,537 (52.9%, +38.1%)

Helen Hurford, Conservative, 16,393 (38.5%, -21.7%)

Liz Pole, Labour, 1,562 (3.7%, -15.8%)

Frankie Rufolo, For Britain, 146 (0.3%)

Ben Walker, UKIP, 241 (0.6%, -1.0%)

Gill Westcott, 1,064 (2.5%, -1.3%)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative

The Wakefield by-election marked the first time Labour has gained a seat in a parliamentary by-election in nearly a decade; they last did so at the Corby by-election of November 2012, and both were Labour gains from the Conservatives. Meanwhile, the Tiverton & Honiton by-election marked the largest majority overturned in any by-election; in 2019 the Conservative majority was 24,239 in Tiverton & Honiton, and over Labour, not the Liberal Democrats who won it from third place on a spectacular 29.9% swing. 

The swing in the Wakefield by-election was considerably below expectations, though, at 12.7%. Simon Lightwood (who had been a caseworker for Mary Creagh, who served as Labour MP from 2005 to 2019) was chosen from a shortlist which excluded any Labour candidates who actually lived in the constituency of Wakefield, causing the entire executive of Wakefield Constituency Labour Party (CLP) to resign in protest. Labour's divisions over the rail strikes that have been taking place this week did not help their case either in the run up to polling day. Meanwhile, the Conservatives' selection of a candidate who had just a month beforehand lost the confidence of Wakefield Metropolitan Borough Council's Conservative group, and even before nominations closed the Conservative campaign attracted negative attention when its leaflets misspelled the names of two villages contained within the Wakefield constituency. The spectre of partygate, combined with the circumstances of the by-election (Imran Ahmad Khan resigned after being convicted of sexually assaulting a 15 year old boy, a heinous crime for which he is now serving a prison sentence of 18 months), the (ultimately unsuccessful) vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson which occurred 1 1/2 weeks before the by-election, and the impact of the cost-of-living crisis, sealed the Conservatives' fate, as did indirectly the candidacy of an Independent and ex-Conservative councillor, Akef Akbar, who exceeded expectations by saving his deposit, something that ex-Conservative councillor and Yorkshire Party candidate David Herdson did not do, although his result of 4.3% is nevertheless the best Yorkshire Party parliamentary election result so far. This and the poor turnout figure of 39.1% in a marginal seat which received considerable media attention shows that tactical voting was only a factor amongst more progressive voters (those who would vote Liberal Democrat or Green in local and general elections; Wakefield is a weak area for both parties), not among moderates dissatisfied with the Conservatives. In these circumstances the Greens did well, by beating both the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK, especially since this was the first time the Greens stood in Wakefield since the 2015 general election. Like in Birmingham Erdington, the collapse of Reform UK's vote did not help the Conservatives.

Also notable in the Wakefield by-election was the abject failure of the racist right. Jayda Fransen polled her lowest vote total ever, 23, receiving the wooden spoon in the Wakefield by-election, and both UKIP and the English Democrats suffered the humiliation of finishing behind the Official Monster Raving Loony Party, which they somehow managed to narrowly avoid doing in both the Batley & Spen and the Old Bexley & Sidcup by-elections last year. Britain First was the only racist right party in this by-election not to be beaten by the OMRLP, although even then their vote total of 311 was pathetic. 

There was speculation on whether the Tiverton & Honiton by-election would be a close result, given the majority that needed to be overturned and the Conservatives selecting a local candidate with strong roots in the constituency (unlike in the North Shropshire by-election last year; these seats share several similarities). However, the gaffes made by the Conservatives during their campaign (e.g. a quote from Helen Hurford that they would fight "one trillion thousand per cent" for constituents), as well as the national factors that affected the Wakefield by-election (see above), ensured that the Liberal Democrats gained the seat with a crushing majority of 6,144. In the ensuing tactical squeeze that followed, Labour lost their deposit, and even the Green Party was squeezed to a lesser extent, somewhat mirroring the Chesham & Amersham by-election even though Tiverton & Honiton is a very different seat indeed. Like North Shropshire, Tiverton & Honiton is a large rural seat with comparatively poor transport links far from any major city, and is experiencing a growing divide between wealthier rural inhabitants and small towns feeling they are being left behind, although Honiton is now attracting Exeter commuters. Just as with Wakefield, parties to the right of the Conservatives socially endured a humiliating failure; the Reform UK Party, UK Independence Party, Heritage Party, and For Britain Party polled fewer votes between them than the Green Party managed alone.

In both by-elections, there was evidence of an unofficial nonaggression pact designed to ensure defeat of the Conservatives whichever party was best suited to win the seat from them, and it worked spectacularly. In 1997, such a "nonaggression pact" between Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown ensured that the Conservatives suffered their worst ever defeat since their foundation in 1832, and given the similarities in important policy positions between Sir Keir Starmer and Sir Ed Davey, such a pact could definitely come into play for the next general election in 2024 or earlier. This pair of by-elections is a shape of things to come in electoral terms over the next two years.