My analysis of British local by-elections from the last 3 weeks of May 2022

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last 3 weeks of May 2022 were as follows:

(12/5/22):

Lewes DC, Peacehaven West: Labour 641 (54.7%), Conservative 467 (39.8%, +12.0%), Green 32 (2.7%, -13.7%), Liberal Democrats 32 (2.7%, -15.1%). Labour gain from Conservative [No Independent or UKIP candidates this time]

Waverley DC, Frensham, Dockenfield & Tilford: Independent 492 (42.1%), Green 354 (30.3%, -4.2%), Conservative 323 (27.6%, -20.6%). Independent gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand]

(19/5/22):

Lancaster BC, Ellel: Green 547 (39.7%, +20.2%), Labour 418 (30.4%, -1.9%), Conservative 377 (27.4%, -14.6%), Liberal Democrats 35 (2.5%, -3.7%). Green gain from Conservative.

(25/5/22)

Spelthorne BC, Lakeham & Shepperton Green: Green 903 (51.7%, +31.1%), Conservative 775 (44.4%, +11.6%), TUSC 69 (3.9%). Green gain from Conservative. [Liberal Democrats, Labour, and UKIP did not stand]

(26/5/22):

Gedling BC, Gedling: Labour 693 (39.4%, -13.5%), Conservative 544 (30.9%, +3.1%), Liberal Democrats 428 (24.3%, +5.4%), Green 95 (5.4%).

North Kesteven DC, Sleaford Quallinton & Mareham: Lincolnshire Independents 545 (39.8%), Conservative 539 (39.3%, +6.9%), Labour 287 (20.9%, -2.4%). Lincolnshire Independents gain from Conservative. [No Independent candidates this time]

Redbridge LBC, Mayfield (deferred election): Labour 2349/2148/2125 (71.1%, -7.4%), Conservative 525/470/360 (14.5%, -7.0%), Liberal Democrats 229 (7.4%), Independent Network 218 (7.0%). 

These seven by-elections continued the trends seen in the local elections on 5th May. The Conservatives lost all five of the seats they were defending in by-elections in the 3 weeks since then, notably including two to the Green Party. Partygate is still haunting the Conservatives and the recent publication of the Sue Gray report is only increasing pressure on Boris Johnson and his Cabinet. In Lancaster, the Greens' primary support base is in the city of Lancaster itself, the breakthrough into the rural Ellel ward is a crucial breakthrough since with new ward boundaries for Lancaster set to come into force next year (when Lancaster next has council elections) there will be a hard contest to see who controls the next administration in Lancaster; the Greens currently lead the administration there. Meanwhile in Spelthorne, the lack of either Labour or Liberal Democrat candidates clearly aided a Green gain there, with the Greens being the only real challengers to the Conservatives in that by-election. 

Labour's gain of Peacehaven West is a clear sign that the demographic change that helped Labour gain control of Worthing is spreading east of Brighton as well; like Worthing and Shoreham, Peacehaven was once a typical retirement resort town, but like Worthing and Shoreham middle-class professional commuters to Brighton (and London for that matter) are increasingly flocking to it, and Newhaven and Seaford in the south of the Lewes district. Therefore, the Labour gain in Peacehaven cannot be regarded as a fluke by-election result.

The most seemingly surprising result is the 8.3% swing to the Conservatives in Gedling ward, which Labour held with a much reduced majority, but it is a clear sign that de facto suburbs (Gedling being one of the city of Nottingham next door) will still act as political bellwethers for the foreseeable future and cannot be taken for granted just because of national polling leads.

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