My analysis of British local by-elections from the first half of September 2022

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first half of September 2022 were as follows:

(1/9/22):

Redditch BC, Headless Cross & Oakenshaw: Labour 767 (41.9%, +17.7%), Conservative 686 (37.5%, -25.4%), Liberal Democrats 274 (15.0%, +9.3%), Green 102 (5.6%, -1.6%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since 2021.

Worcestershire CC, Arrow Valley West: Labour 1,342 (53.7%, +17.4%), Conservative 893 (35.7%, -15.5%), Green 146 (5.8%, -0.9%), Liberal Democrats 120 (4.8%, -1.0%). Labour gain from Conservative.

(8/9/22):

Arun DC, Barnham: Green 786 (50.9%, +19.1%), Conservative 641 (41.5%, +11.3%), Labour 116 (7.5%, -8.0%). Green gain from Conservative.

Cannock Chase DC, Hednesford North: Labour 290 (38.1%, +4.8%), Chase Community Independent 228 (30.0%, +2.6%), Conservative 208 (27.3%, -12.0%), Independent (Harborow) 35 (4.6%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since 2021.

Hartlepool UA, Foggy Furze: Labour 443 (43.9%, +23.8%), Conservative 391 (38.8%, +6.2%), Independent (Stallard) 126 (12.5%), Liberal Democrats 49 (4.9%). Labour gain from Independent. [Other Independents, Veterans & People's Party, Reform UK, and For Britain did not stand]

Lancaster DC, Warton: Green 452 (65.7%, +32.8%), Conservative 169 (24.6%, -22.7%), Labour 44 (6.4%, -13.5%), Liberal Democrats 23 (3.3%). Green gain from Conservative.

West Sussex CC, Felpham: Independent (Wild) 803 (43.4%), Conservative 703 (39.6%, -12.8%), Labour 217 (11.7%, +3.5%), Independent (Parker) 99 (5.3%, -14.7%). Independent gain from Conservative.

(15/9/22):


Bolton MBC, Runworth: Conservative 1,610 (55.0%, +44.1%), Labour 1,102 (37.6%, -35.2%), Green 156 (5.3%, -2.6%), Liberal Democrats 36 (1.2%, -0.8%), Reform UK/Bolton for Change 24 (0.8%). Conservative gain from Labour. [UKIP did not stand]

Mansfield BC, Oak Tree: Labour 141 (47.0%, +13.6%), Mansfield Independents 91 (30.3%, -25.8%), Conservative 45 (15.0%, +4.5%), Freedom Alliance 15 (5.0%), TUSC 8 (2.7%). Labour gain from Mansfield Independents.

Mid Sussex DC, Bolney: Conservative 301 (50.6%, +1.2%), Liberal Democrats 163 (27.4%, +8.6%), Labour 66 (11.1%, +4.6%), OMRLP 30 (5%), Green 28 (4.7%, -8.8%), Independent (Mockford) 7 (1.2%). 

The last two weeks' worth of by-elections were the first to declare their results during the reign of King Charles III, who acceded to the throne last week, and the first during the tenure of Liz Truss, who became Prime Minister three days before Queen Elizabeth II died. Out of respect for Her Majesty's passing, all major political parties suspended campaigning during the official mourning period (which continues until the Queen's state funeral this coming Monday), which contributed to the miserable turnouts in yesterday's by-elections.

Like most new Prime Ministers, Ms Truss received a (minor but still noticeable) polling bounce initially, although this only materialised the following week, which accounts for the Conservatives' spectacular gain of one of Bolton's safest Labour wards, and the terrible result for the Reform UK & Bolton for Change alliance, in one of the few councils in the UK where Reform UK regularly stand candidates. In her first week, the Green Party made two spectacular gains from the Conservatives, who also badly lost the other two seats they were defending that week, showing that the discontent is more with the Conservative government as a whole than with Liz Truss or any other Conservative minister, as the cost of living crisis worsens and her attempts to dampen the energy crisis immediately fall flat; energy bills will likely still double and energy giants will still see record profits.

Apart from that shock loss in Rumworth, Labour has had a strong month so far, winning two marginal, middle-of-the-road seats from the Conservatives in Redditch, and making a significant recovery in their former industrial strongholds of Hartlepool and Mansfield in by-elections there against localist Independents. Even if Sir Keir Starmer's stance will not endear Labour to those of a more socialist inclination, it is resonating in areas of a more centrist leaning and many of these areas (e.g. Milton Keynes, Northampton) still represent key electoral battlegrounds between Labour and the Conservatives.

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