My analysis of British local by-elections during August 2022

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections that took place during August 2022 were as follows:

(4/8/22):

Luton UA, Dallow: Labour 1,486 (53.6%, -11.7%), Liberal Democrats 1,076 (38.8%), Conservative 154 (5.6%, -7.6%), Independent (Schiemann) 58 (2.1%). [Other Independent did not stand]

Shetland UA, North Isles (1st preference votes, all candidates were Independents): Robert Thomson 680 (68.6%), Sonia Robertson 106 (10.7%), Gary Cleaver 100 (10.1%), Maria Williamson 92 (9.3%), Stewart Douglas 13 (1.3%). 

(11/8/22):

Bridgend UA, Bridgend Central: Independent (Easterbrook) 716 (46.8%, +2.2%*), Labour 590 (38.6%, -4.1%), Conservative 150 (9.8%, -2.9%), Green 40 (2.6%), Liberal Democrats 34 (2.2%). Independent gain from Labour.

Spelthorne BC, Laleham & Shepperton Green: Conservative 810 (55.5%, +23.4%), Liberal Democrats 578 (39.6%, +23.3%), TUSC 71 (4.9%). [Greens, UKIP, and Labour did not stand]

Wychavon DC, Dodderhill: Conservative 199 (48.9%), Green 176 (43.2%), Liberal Democrats 32 (7.9%). 

(18/8/22):

Cambridge BC, Trumpington: Liberal Democrats 1,017 (49.8%, +8.8%), Labour 472 (23.1%, -4.0%), Green 298 (14.6%, +0.1%), Conservative 256 (12.5%, -4.9%). All changes are since 2021.

Wyre DC, Pressall: Independent (Rushworth) 595 (39.5%), Conservative 495 (32.8%, -29.9%), Labour 315 (20.9%, -16.4%), Independent (Wright) 102 (6.8%). Independent gain from Conservative.

(25/8/22):

East Riding of Yorkshire UA, Beverley Rural: Liberal Democrats 1,948 (59.4%, +37.4%), Conservative 1,116 (34.1%, -11.2%), Labour 213 (6.5%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Greens did not stand]

*Compared to the other two Independents on that candidate's slate who sit as Bridgend County Independents on Bridgend Council.

During this traditional lull in the political season (the Conservative Party leadership election and the Green Party deputy leadership election notwithstanding), the Conservatives continued their run of poor performances, although surprisingly the Liberal Democrat-Green pact in Spelthorne which resulted in a Green gain of Laleham & Shepperton Green in a by-election last year failed to yield a Liberal Democrat gain, perhaps because the Green Party is perceived to be more likeable than the Liberal Democrats. Their loss of Pressall was in reaction to quarrying around that village; the Independent who won stood on a platform of opposing that quarry. Their loss of Beverley Rural and nearly losing Dodderhill is also a sign that almost no Conservative ward anywhere in the UK is safe at present.

Labour did not perform well either, losing a seat in Bridgend to a localist Independent and being knocked back in Trumpington. The Greens were unlucky to fall just 23 votes short of winning another seat in Wychavon, where like in most of Worcestershire they have been performing well recently; arguably had the Liberal Democrats not stood the Greens would have narrowly won that particular by-election. The absence of a Green candidate in the Beverley Rural by-election, by contrast, proved to decisively swing that by-election in the Liberal Democrats' favour.



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