My analysis of by-elections from the last fortnight of June 2022

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last fortnight of June 2022 were as follows:

(23/06/2022):

Harlow BC, Bush Fair: Labour 594 (47.1%, +2.6%), Conservative 482 (38.2%, -6.5%), Green 109 (8.6%, +1.0%), Harlow Alliance 76 (6.0%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since this May. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]

Kingston-upon-Thames LBC, New Malden Village (deferred election)*: Liberal Democrats 1,217/1,184/1,182 (40.7%), Green 867/Kingston Independent Residents** 724/703 (29.0%), Conservative 467/372/327 (15.6%), Labour 436/429/374 (14.6%).

Neath Port Talbot UA, Port Talbot (deferred election): Labour 914/898 (62.2%), Plaid Cymru 367/244 (21.0%), Independents (Davies, Isherwood) 246/171 (14.3%), Green 46/25 (2.4%). 

Shropshire UA, Highley: Liberal Democrats 630 (54.5%), Conservative 279 (24.1%, -9.5%), Labour 239 (20.7%, +7.3%), Green 9 (0.8%). Liberal Democrat gain from Independent, where no other Independent defended the seat.

Waverley DC, Hindhead: Liberal Democrats 537 (54.6%, +5.8%), Conservative 446 (45.4%, +1.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand]

(30/06/2022):

Buckinghamshire UA, Bernwood: Liberal Democrats 1,158 (38.7%, +24.0%), Green 1,030 (34.4%, -1.0%), Conservative 723 (24.1%, -14.8%), Labour 85 (2.8%, -8.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

Croydon LBC, Croydon South: Conservative 1,306 (42.9%, +2.1%), Labour 821 (27.0%, -2.4%), Liberal Democrats 448 (14.7%, +0.9%), Green 269 (8.8%, -4.6%), Independent (Pelling) 158 (5.2%), UKIP 25 (0.8%, -1.8%), Independent (Samuel) 18 (0.6%).

East Yorkshire UA, Bridlington North: Liberal Democrats 1,950 (57.1%), Conservative 1,077 (31.5%, -38.8%), Labour 171 (5.0%, -24.7%), SDP 125 (3.7%), Yorkshire Party 93 (2.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

Eilean Siar UA, Barraigh agus Bhatarsaigh (1st preference votes): Independent (MacNeil) 189 (49.3%), Independent (MacDonald) 181 (47.3%), Independent (MacMillan) 13 (3.4%). Independent (MacNeil) win at stage 2 (by-election held due to insufficient nominations in May).

Eilean Siar UA, Sgir Uige agus Carlabhagh (1st preference votes): Independent (Macdonald)  222 (35.4%), Liberal Democrats 128 (20.4%), Independent (Brown) 113 (18.0%), SNP 96 (15.3%), Green 57 (9.1%), Independent (MacLeod) 11 (1.8%), Independent (MacKinnon) 1 (0.2%). Independent (MacDonald) win at stage 4 (by-election held due to insufficient nominations in May).

Liverpool MBC, Fazakerley: Labour 1,365 (57.5%, -9.7%), Independent (Wharton) 638 (26.9%), Liberal Democrats 290 (12.2%, +0.4%), Green 79 (3.3%, -5.7%). [Conservatives and continuity Liberals did not stand]

Middlesbrough UA, Berwick Hills & Pallister: Labour 361 (56.8%, +25.8%), Independent (James) 204 (32.1%, -32.2%)^, Conservative 53 (8.3%, +2.8%), Liberal Democrats 11 (1.7%), Green 7 (1.1%). Labour gain from Independent.

Newark & Sherwood DC, Ollerton: Labour 962 (64.9%, +1.6%), Conservative 395 (27.7%, -10.1%), Independent (Spry) 125 (8.4%).

South Derbyshire DC, Midway: Labour 600 (52.6%, +14.2%), Conservative 540 (47.4%, +11.0%). Labour gain from Conservative. [UKIP did not stand]

Wyre DC, Cleveleys Park: Conservative 721 (53.7%, -9.7%), Labour 621 (46.3%, +9.7%).

*New ward so no comparisons with 2018 are possible for this deferred election.

** The Green candidate and the 2 Kingston Independent Residents candidates stood in an electoral pact.

^Mr James was supported by the Independent group on Middlesbrough Council.

These two weeks of local by-elections brought more woe for the Conservatives to follow with and from their crushing defeats in the Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton parliamentary by-elections, and more are likely to come later this year. Of the 7 seats they were defending this fortnight in local by-elections, the Conservatives held only 2 (and the Cleveleys Park result was relatively close); their slight swing against Labour in Croydon South (2.3%) primarily came about because former Conservative MP and former Labour councillor Andrew Pelling made a bid for the seat; Mr Pelling failed badly, finishing third last, and such a poor performance (especially given his past successes) means he is unlikely to return to Croydon London Borough Council in the near future. Furthermore, the Conservatives performed just as badly in less affluent wards north of the Wash that voted strongly Brexit in the EU membership referendum in 2016 as they did in wealthy wards south of the Wash that voted strongly Remain. It is becoming abundantly clear that there are no benefits to Brexit except for speculators and unscrupulous financiers.

The Liberal Democrats and Labour both performed well, depending on what type of ward it was, the demographics of that ward, and the lingering effects of Brexit. The Greens managed a good second in New Malden Village; normally in Kingston-upon-Thames the Liberal Democrats squeeze the Green vote heavily, and came close to winning a second seat in Bernwood. In the latter by-election, the successful Liberal Democrat candidate was a retired headteacher who had taught at one of the primary schools in the ward, proof of the continuing importance of localism at election time.

Meanwhile, over in Eilean Siar ("Western Isles" in English, effectively the Outer Hebrides), the fact that by-elections had to be held simply due to undernomination (where fewer candidates are nominated than there are available seats for a ward or other type of electoral district) is indicative of a serious but poorly documented problem in the United Kingdom-the currently inexorable decline of rural areas, especially in Scotland and Wales (undernomination is an occasional problem in Welsh local elections as well, particularly in Gwynedd and Powys). Of the 28 council areas in England and Wales (2021 census data for Scottish council areas is not available yet) that showed either a population decline or no population growth between the 2011 census and the 2021 census, 8 were in Wales and 6 were in rural English districts, and these are areas where uncontested elections are most frequent. The situation is even worse in some parts of Europe-"empty Spain" is a notorious phenomenon in rural Spain where villages have become completely depopulated. Revitalisation of rural areas is vital; our future cannot be entirely urban or metropolitan.

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