My analysis of the 2022 United Kingdom local elections part 2-Scotland & Wales

 Just as interesting as the results of the local elections in England were those in both Scotland and Wales.

The Conservatives endured significant losses in Scotland and Wales just like they did in England; within Scotland they lost 63 councillors which was enough to put them third in terms of council seats in Scotland behind Labour, who have been on the downturn in Scotland ever since the SNP achieved almost a clean sweep of Scotland's Westminster constituencies in 2015. Notable losses included half their seats in Edinburgh, the Scottish capital and the most strongly unionist of Scotland's cities, all but two of their seats in Glasgow, half their seats in East Dunbartonshire, and nearly half their seats in Fife, showing that middle-class unionist areas of Scotland have sharply turned against Boris Johnson's brand of Conservatism, and the consequences of Brexit; they even lost largest party status in East Renfrewshire to the SNP. Conversely, the Conservatives held up better in rural Scottish councils and even gained 3 seats apiece in Moray and Aberdeenshire where for the most part unionist-nationalist battles between the Conservatives and SNP (and in some parts of Aberdeenshire, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP) dominate. Over in Wales, the Conservatives lost almost half the seats they were defending, boundary changes aside, notably losing control of and even largest party status on Monmouthshire, the most English-speaking county of Wales, and more than half their seats in the Vale of Glamorgan, half their seats in Cardiff particularly in the north of the Welsh capital, and they were almost wiped out in Bridgend, which is mostly represented by Conservative MP, Jamie Wallis, who is currently facing several charges relating to a traffic accident (part of the council area of Bridgend is in the Ogmore constituency).. Furthermore, in the three authorities within what was once Clwyd-Denbighshire, Flintshire, and Wrexham-they suffered heavy defeats in contrast to their strong performance there in the 2019 general election (4 of the 6 constituencies they gained in Wales in 2019 were in the former county of Clwyd). Both traditional middle-class Conservatives and those who believed that their area would benefit significantly from a "levelling up" agenda have turned on the Conservatives in Wales, just like in England. 

Labour made some recovery in Scotland, gaining control of West Dunbartonshire (the STV system in Scottish local elections makes it very difficult for even the dominant SNP to take overall control of Scottish councils), making a net gain of 20 councils, but they are still lagging behind the SNP in the Central Belt where they once dominated and this will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future, as the SNP have effectively displaced Labour in Scotland except in strongly unionist areas such as East Lothian where Labour will continue to remain competitive. Meanwhile in Wales, they gained Blaenau Gwent and Bridgend and strengthened their control of Cardiff, which has a large middle-class public sector electorate as well (interestingly Labour lost seats in Swansea even though Swansea has a considerable public sector electorate). Labour did however endure a major setback in losing Neath Port Talbot, a sign that Sir Keir Starmer's desire to appeal to the centre ground is losing Labour many traditional supporters, and they did not benefit much from Conservative woes in Denbighshire, Flintshire, or Wrexham.

The Liberal Democrats' progress in Scotland primarily occurred where they were the main challengers to the SNP or defending against the SNP, rather than in terms of the council area's demographics, hence why they made a net gain of only 20 seats. They had a larger struggle in Wales, making a net gain of only 10 seats, contributed by their gains in Powys alone due to the gradual decline of Independent dominance as well as the cost of living crisis strongly impacting on rural areas which are more dependent on car usage; at this time of writing petrol and diesel prices have exceeded £1.50 per litre almost everywhere in Britain. The Scottish Greens fared better in pushing the climate emergency to the fore of Scottish politics, nearly doubling their council seat total to 35; clearly their time in coalition with the SNP in Holyrood is favouring them at present. Having struggled with low candidate numbers and competition with Plaid Cymru for "soft green" votes, Wales Green Party finally got their breakthrough this year, winning 8 seats in total although a pact with Plaid Cymru in Cardiff failed badly, primarily because the Green Party still does not appeal much to the Welsh-speaking electorate and/or those concerned with Welsh independence.

The SNP benefitted well from the Conservatives' losses, making a net gain of 22 seats, even though Conservative voters generally do not preference the SNP at all and would rather see their votes transfer to Labour than the SNP, even though the appetite for Scottish independence is no better than in 2014; notable amongst their otherwise modest gains was gaining overall control of Dundee. The SNP splinter group Alba, by comparison, did not hold a single seat amongst the councillors who defected to Alba from the SNP and most polled a derisory vote, showing as with the 2021 Scottish Parliament election that Alba lacks a viable support base or enough differences from the SNP to make a case for itself. Plaid Cymru, meanwhile, regained Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion and Ynys Mon in addition to holding Gwynedd meaning that once again they now have control of all four councils comprising the Welsh-speaking counties, but Labour's recovery of more moderate voters saw Plaid Cymru lose more than half their seats in Rhondda Cynon Taf where they are generally the only competitors to Labour, showing a shift in direction under Adam Price back towards more traditional areas of Plaid Cymru support. Partly as a result they actually made net losses of 6 council seats, despite making considerable headway in Wrexham, close to the border with the English county of Cheshire. In both Scotland and Wales, Independents continued to decline except in the more remote, rural councils where a non-partisan tradition still holds sway, such as Orkney and Shetland in Scotland and Pembrokeshire and Powys in Wales; this is not only attributable to increased political party activity but a decline in younger people able to replace retiring councillors due to a lack of career and educational prospects in the more remote areas.