My analysis of the French presidential election of 2022

 As predicted, the French presidential election of 2022 delivered a second term for Emmanuel Macron, albeit with a less decisive result than in 2017, even though he was once again facing Marine Le Pen in the second round.

This time, M. Macron won by a margin of 58.5% to 41.5%, compared to his victory of 66.1% to 33.9% against Mme Le Pen. Even though Mme Le Pen's anti-immigrant, racist and nationalist platform was just as despised as ever before, the margin of victory was lower because of a greater abstention rate. In the second round, the turnout was just 72%, the lowest in a French presidential election in 1969; by comparison the turnout in the second round in 2017 was 74.6%. Furthermore, many voters who supported radical socialist activist Jean-Luc Melenchon, Bernie Sanders' French counterpart in some ways, who came just 421,309 votes short of entering the second round, decided to abstain or spoil their ballot papers, seeing a choice between M. Macron and Mme Le Pen as a Hobson's choice at best.

What was just as notable in this election was the collapse of the French "establishment parties". Neither the Les Republicans (the Republicans, France's equivalent of the Conservatives) nor the Parti Socialiste (Socialist Party, which in this case is France's equivalent of Labour) reached the 5% mark necessary to reclaim campaign expenses. Valerie Pecresse only managed 4.76% and Anne Hidalgo (currently Mayor of Paris) fared even worse with 1.75%. This is also reflective of how polarised French politics has become, since the top three presidential candidates comprised the "hard centre", "hard right", and "hard left" respectively and between them M. Macron, Mme Le Pen, and M. Melenchon polled 72.95% of the votes cast in the first round. Many voters increasingly want candidates firmer in their beliefs and principles and not moderate waverers; it is not possible to please everyone and newer parties with more extreme views find this easier to accept, even if it permanently narrows their support base. 

Despite high expectations Yannick Jadot, the Europe Ecologie Les Verts (the French Green Party) candidate failed to pass the 5% threshold either, falling slightly behind Mme Pecresse. Even though the climate crisis is receiving significant attention in France, M. Macron was able to win over a large proportion of "light green" voters wavering between EELV and M. Macron's party, La Republique En Marche (Republic Forward, the French answer to the Free Democratic Party of Germany and similar to the Liberal Democrats in some ways), in a similar fashion to how the Liberal Democrats have won over some similar voters in the UK in some recent parliamentary by-elections (e.g. in the case of Chesham & Amersham). Furthermore those voters, unlike M. Melenchon's supporters, were more willing to vote tactically in the second round even though neither option was inclined towards what they saw as a green agenda.

"Judean People's Front/People's Front of Judea" splits continued to haunt the "hard left" in France, and this time it proved to be serious. The votes of the French Communist Party alone, who did not stand in the 2017 French presidential election, would have been enough to allow M. Melenchon and France Insoumisse (Insubmissive France) to enter the second round, and given the dissatisfaction amongst poorer voters with M. Macron and his reforms, not to mention the impact of particularly strict lockdowns during 2020, M. Melenchon would likely have won, if narrowly. The same cannot be said for Philippe Poutou or Nathalie Arthaud of the New Anticapitalist Party and Workers' Struggle respectively, for their voters would have had held views too extreme even to support France Insoumisse, although limited tactical voting for M. Melenchon did ensue amongst some of their voter base.

It is important to note at this point that, as with the position of President of the United States of America, no President of France can serve more than two terms in office. Whether LREM can sustain itself after Emmanuel Macron completes his second term as French President remains debatable, and he will face more resistance to his reforms than he did during his first term. The increasing alienation of French voters from French politics, as seen here in this election and which will become even more marked in National Assembly elections in June, is another serious long-term problem.

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