My analysis of the 2022 United Kingdom local elections part 4: Final thoughts

What conclusions can be drawn from the 2022 United Kingdom local elections?

1. The 2022 United Kingdom local elections have further entrenched the long-term political divides showcased in the 2019 and 2021 local election results, as shown by the few councils where the Conservatives gained seats having already done so in 2021 and also the councils where they lost control and/or were nearly wiped out, and this will undoubtedly reflect somewhat on general election results come late 2023 or 2024 (even accounting for boundary changes), and by the types of councils all four main parties contesting seats in England (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green) perform well in. Many of these changes will not be reversed for years, if ever, since they are pushed by factors beyond the control of any government or political party e.g. rising house prices driving progressive voters out of London, Brighton etc. and into formerly safely Conservative towns within their reach (e.g. Worthing).

2. The cost of living crisis has been particularly felt hard in the "Red Wall" areas, particularly those that felt the worst impacts of COVID-19 e.g. Greater Manchester and Lancashire. Although there have been claims of a "levelling up agenda" no such levelling up has occurred yet to a significant extent, and in particular affluent areas that happen to be represented by Conservative MPs have benefitted from it unnecessarily, further exacerbating such discontent. The "Red Wall" term, if it had true meaning, will likely just be a political blip.

3. The Liberal Democrats and Greens are fast becoming major players on the British political scene, and in particular the Green Party have proven themselves able to get elected in any type of council area, as the climate crisis and access to green spaces issues affect all of us, no matter who we are or where we live. Furthermore, the Green Party's breakthroughs into such areas as Croydon and Plymouth represent a major crack in the two-party duopoly of Conservative and Labour that once dominated these areas. 

4. Proportional representation is badly needed for English and Welsh councils; Welsh councils can now choose to change to a Single Transferable Vote system but so far none have elected to do so; English councils however have no such option available to them. Even with first past the post, many councils are set to remain in "no overall control" for the foreseeable future, and coalitions are becoming more common than ever in local councils in the United Kingdom. It is high time proportional representation came to British elections, at least at a local level and later at a parliamentary level as well; STV has worked very well for Scottish and Northern Irish councils, and the Additional Member System (AMS) used for the London Assembly, Scottish Parliament, and Senedd can provide fair representation and political stability and constituency links all simultaneously. 

Comments

  1. Anonymous28 May 2022 at 22:21

    Based on old records (1973 et seq) until voters decided (in 1989) that we were left wing, Green Party results at both local and national level consistently showed us dong better in Conservative areas. My hypothesis is that those who do not have to worry about money can pay attention to ecological threats, unlike those who do have to worry about money
    I am looking for confirmation (or refutation) of my belief that this pattern is reappearing at local level, where redistribution is not a issue. Can you help, Alan? this will be unwelcome to many Greens, but does have implications for strategy.

    ReplyDelete

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