My analysis of British local by-elections from the first half of June 2022

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first half of June 2022 were as follows:

(9/6/2022): 

Breckland DC, Mattishall: Conservative 539 (41.9%, -4.2%), Independent (Oeschle) 486 (37.8%), Labour 260 (20.2%, -5.5%). [Other Independent did not stand]

Crawley BC, Southgate: Labour 938 (50.1%, +2.2%), Conservative 790 (42.2%, +3.7%), Green 144 (7.7%). All changes are since 2019. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]

Sevenoaks DC, Penshurst, Fordcombe & Chiddingstone: Liberal Democrats 343 (54.4%), Conservative 288 (45.6%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. 

(16/6/2022):

Rother DC, Brede & Udimore: Conservative 424 (61.4%, +21.5%), Liberal Democrats 266 (38.6%, +30.8%). [Independent, Labour, and UKIP did not stand]

Sunderland MBC, Copt Hill (deferred election): Labour 969 (44.5%, -1.2%), Independent (Pearson) 606 (27.8%), Conservative 384 (17.6%, -6.8%), Green 158 (7.3%, -2.0%), Liberal Democrats 61 (2.8%, -3.6%). All changes are since 2021. [UKIP did not stand]

Warwick DC, Leamington Clarendon: Labour 1064 (49.0%, +15.1%), Liberal Democrats 612 (28.2%, -0.8%), Conservative 365 (16.8%, -1.3%), Green 105 (4.8%, -7.5%), UKIP 24 (1.1%).

Wyre Forest DC, Franche & Habberley North: Conservative 826 (45.2%, +25.4%), Labour 656 (35.9%, +16.7%), Liberal Democrats 347 (19.0%, +8.4%). Conservative gain from Independent Community & Health Concern, who did not defend the seat. [UKIP and Greens did not stand]

(NB: There were no by-elections on 2nd June as this was part of the Platinum Jubilee Bank Holiday weekend).

Despite the vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson (which ultimately failed last Monday by a margin of 211 to 148) being a hot topic in the run up to these by-elections, the Conservatives only lost 1 of the 3 seats they were defending and they even gained a seat from the declining Independent Community & Health Concern Party, the localist legacy of Wyre Forest's Independent MP Richard Taylor, who did not defend their seat following their announcement that they would be retiring from the political scene. Nevertheless, their close run in two rural wards, as well as losing a ward containing wealthy villages near Sevenoaks, Kent, shows they are still on the downturn. That last by-election was the Liberal Democrats' only highlight in the first half of this month in local by-election terms.

Labour also had a reasonably strong performance (and their lead over the Conservatives in voter intention polls is only modest at best), holding a key marginal ward in Crawley (which has been an important political bellwether in the past), rebuffing a Liberal Democrat challenge in Leamington (and in a ward north of the River Leam; the other two wards in Royal Leamington Spa north of the River Leam, Lillington and Milverton, are strongly Liberal Democrat), and have essentially re-established themselves as the key challengers to the Conservatives in Wyre Forest, with news of ICHC's impending political demise. The Greens struggled with by-elections in this half of the month, notably enduring a tactical squeeze by the Liberal Democrats in Leamington Clarendon (all to no avail for the latter) but finishing well ahead of the Liberal Democrats in Copt Hill, Sunderland.


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