Alan's Green Thoughts

  Normally, I would have posted my Christmas message for the year two days earlier and taken a break until the New Year. But because a local by-election occurred on 23 December, I could not do so. The results of British local by-elections from 16 December and 23 December 2021 were as follows: (16/12/21): Argyll & Bute UA, Lomond North (1st preference votes): Conservative 742 (40.7%, +11.3%), SNP 459 (25.2%, +5.0%), Independent (Irvine) 418 (22.9%), Independent (Macintyre) 204 (11.2%, +0.5%). Conservative hold at stage 3. [Labour, Liberal Democrats and other Independents did not stand] Ashford DC, Highfield: Green 191 (40.0%, +21.2%), Conservative 163 (34.1%, -7.0%), Ashford Independent 101 (21.1%, -7.4%), Labour 23 (4.8%). Green gain from Conservative. [Liberal Democrats did not stand] Bridgend UA, Caerau: Independent (Davies) 515 (48.8%), Labour 441 (41.8%, -7.1%), Plaid Cymru 82 (7.1%), Conservative 18 (1.7%). Independent gain from Labour. [Other Independents did not stand] H...

  Readers, the result of the North Shropshire by-election, caused by the resignation of Owen Paterson during the sleaze/second jobs scandal, was as follows: Suzie Akers-Smith, Independent, 95 (0.3%) Andrea Allen, UKIP, 378 (1.0%) Boris Been-Bunged, Rejoin EU, 58 (0.2%) Martin Daubney, Reclaim Party, 375 (1.0%) Russell Dean, Party Party, 19 (0.0%) James Elliot, Heritage Party, 79 (0.2%) Alan "Howling Laud" Hope, OMRLP, 118 (0.3%) Earl Jesse, Freedom Alliance, 57 (0.2%) Yolande Kenward, 3 (0.0%) Duncan Kerr, Green Party, 1,738 (4.6%, +1.4%) Helen Morgan, Liberal Democrats, 17,957 (47.2%, +37.2%) Neil Shastri-Hurst, Conservative, 12,032 (31.6%, -31.1%) Kirsty Walmsley, Reform UK, 1,427 (3.8%) Ben Wood, Labour, 3,686 (9.7%, -12.4%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative. The swing of 34.2% from Conservative to the Liberal Democrats that Helen Morgan managed is only 1.1% lower than the Liberal Democrats' record of a 35.3% swing in the Christchurch by-election of 1993, and thi...

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of December 2021 were as follows: (NB: I postponed my coverage of the 2nd December local by-elections to write a feature piece on the Old Bexley & Sidcup parliamentary by-election) (2/12/21): Adur DC, Hillside: Conservative 414 (56.2%, -6.3%), Green 175 (23.7%, +17.1%), Labour 148 (20.1%, -7.7%). All changes are since May 2018. Breckland DC, Hermitage: Conservative 243 (45.0%, -26.3%), Liberal Democrats 221 (40.9%), Labour 66 (12.2%, -16.5%), Workers Party 10 (1.9%). Highland UA, Fort William & Ardamurchan (1st preference votes): SNP 905 (39.6%, +6.7%), Conservative 485 (21.2%, +8.5%), Green 328 (14.3%), Liberal Democrats 231 (10.1%, +5.5%), Independent (McKenna) 194 (8.5%), Independent (Mathieson) 88 (3.8%, -0.4%), Mark Drayton 56 (2.4%). Lancaster DC, Bare: Liberal Democrats 428 (33.1%, +24.6%), Green 301 (23.3%, +16.2%), Morecambe Bay Independents 243 (18.8%, -13.9%), Conservative 215 (16.6%, -...

  Readers, the votes cast in the Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election were as follows: Elaine Cheeseman, English Democrats, 271 (1.3%) Daniel Francis, Labour, 6,711 (30.9%, +7.4%) Louie French, Conservative, 11,189 (51.5%, -13.1%) Richard Hewison, Rejoin EU, 151 (0.7%) David Kurten, Heritage Party, 116 (0.5%) John Poynton, UKIP, 184 (0.8%) Simone Reynolds, Liberal Democrats, 647 (3.0%, -5.3%) Jonathan Rooks, Green Party, 830 (3.8%, +0.6%) Richard Tice, Reform UK, 1,432 (6.6%) Carol Valinejad, Christian Peoples' Alliance, 108 (0.5%, +0.0%) Mad Mike Young, OMRLP., 94 (0.4%) Conservative HOLD. This by-election was essentially a foregone conclusion, especially since there have been only four by-elections where Labour have equalled or exceeded the 20.6% swing they would have needed to win this seat, and three of those were during Sir John Major's tenure as Prime Minister, when the Conservatives lost all eight of the by-elections where they were the  defending party, and were pushed ...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from yesterday (and there were 12 yesterday!) were as follows: Allerdale DC, Maryport South: Labour 273 (52.9%, +11.8%), Independent (Galletly) 149 (28.9%), Conservative 94 (18.2%, +11.5%). Labour gain from Independent. [Other Independent and For Britain did not stand] Basildon BC, Lee Chapel North: Labour 451 (39.8%, +0.8%), Conservative 395 (34.8%, -2.4%), Residents 135 (11.9%, -2.4%), Reform UK 98 (8.6%, +3.7%), Liberal Democrats 55 (4.8%, +0.3%). All changes are since May 2021. Halton UA, Halton North: Labour 373 (60.3%, +9.7%), Green 117 (18.9%), Independent (Whyte) 69 (11.1%, -7.9%), Conservative 45 (7.3%, -11.4%), Liberal Democrats 15 (2.4%, -9.3%). All changes are since May 2021. Hambleton DC, Raskelf & White Horse: Conservative 288 (55.7%, -2.9%), Liberal Democrats 127 (24.6%), Green 102 (19.7%, -21.7%). Lancaster DC, Carnforth & Millhead: Labour 538 (57.7%, +25.5%), Conservative 315 (33.8%, -0.6%), Green 54 (5.8%, -4....

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from yesterday were as follows: Canterbury DC, Gorrell: Green 1,149 (43.9%, +15.7%), Labour 803 (30.7%, -10.6%), Conservative 608 (23.2%, +0.5%), Workers' Party of Great Britain 58 (2.2%). Green gain from Labour. [Liberal Democrats did not stand] Liverpool MBC, Anfield: Labour 604 (55.9%, -11.5%), Liberal 281 (26.0%, +15.0%), Liberal Democrats 73 (6.8%, +2.1%), Green 72 (6.7%, -0.9%), Conservative 42 (3.9%, -1.4%), Adam Hetherington 9 (0.8%). All changes are since May. [Other Independent candidate did not stand; No Description candidates count as Independents and are listed by name only if not officially an Independent on the ballot paper] Liverpool MBC, Clubmoor: Labour 787 (54.5%, -7.6%), Liberal 324 (22.4%, +3.2%), Independent (Wharton) 167 (11.6%), TUSC 54 (3.7%), Green 45 (3.1%, -4.7%), Liberal Democrats 34 (2.4%, -3.2%), Conservative 33 (2.3%, -3.0%). All changes are since May. Liverpool MBC, Kirkdale: Labour 852 (61.7%, +2...

  Yesterday a third legislative election in Bulgaria in 2021 took place, marking 3 legislative elections in 7 months in fact in Bulgaria.  The most significant change in that election was marked by the entrance of a new anti-corruption coalition, We Continue the Change, which out of nowhere came top of the poll with 25.31%, winning 67 seats, particularly significant when it is also strongly pro-European (Eastern and Southeastern European nations have generally been more Eurosceptic than Western European nations). Also crucially for them and other parties running specifically on anti-corruption platforms, both Bulgaria's "establishment" alliances, GERB-SDS and BSP for Bulgaria, lost seats; GERB-SDS lost 4 and BSP for Bulgaria lost 9 compared to July's Bulgarian election, bringing them down to 59 and 27 seats respectively, and both results represent a record low for both parties even counting the alliances they have led.  The upstart We Continue the Change party, led by...

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 11 November 2021 (aka the 103rd Armistice Day) were as follows: Cardiff UA, Heath: Labour 1,729 (47.1%, +14.7%), Conservative 1,120 (30.8%, +1.2%), Liberal Democrats 561 (15.3%, +12.1%), Plaid Cymru 250 (6.8%, -0.6%). Labour gain from Heath Independents, who did not defend the seat. [Greens did not stand] Denbighshire UA, Llandrillo: Plaid Cymru 179 (44.0%), Independent (Robson) 140 (34.4%), Conservative 88 (21.6%). Lancaster BC, University & Scotforth Rural: Labour 216 (46.1%, +3.2%), Green 193 (41.2%, +13.9%), Conservative 44 (9.4%, -8.2%), Liberal Democrats 16 (3.4%, -9.0%).  Melton DC, Melton Dorian: Conservative 362 (56.0%, +6.5%), Labour 284 (44.0%). [Greens did not stand] North Kesteven DC, Metheringham (double by-election): Conservative 424/404 (45.7%, +6.7%), Lincolnshire Independents 404/369 (42.6%, -18.4%), Labour 85/69 (8.5%), Liberal Democrats 29 (3.2%). Conservative gain from Lincolnshire Independent/L...

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 4 November 2021 were as follows: Gloucester BC, Longlevens: Liberal Democrats 1,520 (60.3%, +14.8%), Conservative 781 (31.0%, -16.4%), Labour 135 (5.4%), Green 86 (3.4%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Libertarian Party did not stand] Huntingdonshire DC, Huntingdon East: Liberal Democrats 813 (55.3%, +8.8%), Conservative 656 (44.7%, +5.9%). [Labour did not stand] Rutland UA, Oakham North West: Labour 293 (62.6%), Conservative 175 (37.4%). Labour gain from Independent [No Independent candidates this time]. Salford MBC, Blackfriars & Trinity: Labour 408 (51.3%, -7.1%), Green 160 (20.3%, -1.2%), Liberal Democrats 152 (19.3%, +14.1%), Conservative 68 (8.6%, +0.4%). [No Independent candidates this time[. West Lancashire DC, North Meols: Conservative 634 (64.9%, +15.6%), Labour 343 (35.1%, -3.0%). All changes are since May 2019. West Sussex CC, Bourne: Liberal Democrats 1,180 (51.8%, +22.8%), Conservative 893 (39.2%...

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last fortnight of October 2021 (covering 21 October 2021 and 28 October 2021) were as follows: (NB: I was at Green Party conference last weekend, hence why I did not post my analysis of last weekend's by-elections) are as follows: (21/10/21): Birmingham MBC, Yardley East: Liberal Democrats 1,312 (65.3%, +0.4%), Labour 609 (30.3%, +0.1%), Conservative 89 (4.4%, -0.5%). Horsham DC, Forest: Liberal Democrats 921 (47.4%, +8.1%), Labour 517 (26.6%, +4.2%), Conservative 410 (21.1%, +0.7%), Green 97 (5.0%). Newark & Sherwood DC, Rainworth South & Blidworth: Independent (Thompson) 650 (66.2%), Conservative 168 (17.1%, -12.2%), Labour 164 (16.7%, -22.6%). Independent gain from Labour. (28/10/21): Bolton MBC, Bromley Cross: Conservative 1,732 (70.0%, +8.1%), Labour 409 (16.5%, -6.6%), Green 165 (6.7%, -2.3%), Bolton for Change 99 (4.0%), Liberal Democrats 68 (2.7%, -3.2%). All changes are since May 2018, when there was a d...

Yesterday, Sir David Amess, pro-life and animal welfare campaigner and Conservative MP for Basildon from 1983 to 1997 and Southend West from 1997 to 2021, tragically died when he was stabbed whilst holding a constituency surgery in Leigh-on-Sea. Sir David, being a lifelong Roman Catholic, firmly opposed unnecessary abortions He was also a passionate campaigner for animal rights, pushing through important legislation such as the Protection Against Cruel Tethering Act, and firmly opposed fox hunting of any kind. Finally, he was also dedicated to the seaside town of Southend, campaigning for it to be awarded city status. This is likely to happen at some point in the future, but sadly he will now not be around to see it. Farewell, Sir David. You were cruelly taken from us whilst you were just doing what all MPs are supposed to do-serve the public and liaise with constituents. Sir David Amess, born 26 March 1952, departed this life on 15 October 2021, aged 69 years.

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from yesterday were as follows: Falkirk UA, Falkirk South (1st preference votes): SNP 1,691 (39.2%, +3.5%), Conservative 1,679 (38.9%, +6.8%), Labour 679 (15.7%, -11.4%), Green 267 (6.2%, +1.1%). SNP gain from Labour at stage 4. Harrow LBC, Pinner South: Conservative 1,392 (60.5%, +1.8%), Liberal Democrats 390 (16.9%, +2.3%), Labour 331 (14.4%, -12.3%), Green 188 (8.2%). Surrey Heath BC, Frimley Green: Conservative 896 (48.5%, +20.3%), Liberal Democrats 877 (47.4%, -1.4%), Labour 76 (4.1%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats. [UKIP and Pirate Party did not stand] Wigan MBC, Leigh West: Labour 1,004 (56.2%, +2.1%), Conservative 423 (23.7%, +8.2%), Leigh West Independent 257 (14.4%), Liberal Democrats 103 (5.8%, -0.8%). All changes are since May 2018. [Other Independent from 2018 did not stand] It was a strong week for the Conservatives, with UKIP's and Reform UK's absence from the Frimley Green proving decisive to that C...

The 2021 legislative election of the Czech Republic (aka Czechia) resulted in a resounding rejection of the ANO (Czech for yes) party of incumbent PM Andrej Babis; the title of this post means "A resounding no to the so-called yes party" in English. The poll-topper this time was the SPOLU ("Together") alliance led by Petr Fiala's Civic Democratic Party (ODS), and also consisting of previous coalition partners in ODS-led governments, namely the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and TOP 09. They polled 27.8%, narrowly ahead of ANO 2011's 27.1%, although due to seat allocations at regional level it was ANO that won the most seats, 72 compared to SPOLU's 71. Notably, ANO 2011 finished third in the Czech capital, Prague, and did best in areas closest to the borders with Slovakia and Germany. Since taking office in 2017, Mr Babis has been dogged by his past as a secret police informant under Gustav Hacek's regime (Gustav Hacek was communist ruler of Czechoslov...

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 7 October 2021 were as follows: Flintshire UA, Pennyffordd: Labour 437 (37.4%), Independent (Saxon) 286 (24.5%), Independent (Ransome) 281 (24.2%), Independent (Wakelam) 163 (13.9%). Labour gain from Independent. Nottingham UA, St Ann's: Labour 1,048 (65.5%, +0.8%), Nottingham Independents 204 (11.7%), Conservative 193 (12.1%, +1.9%), Green 92 (5.7%), Liberal Democrats 40 (2.5%, -8.2%), TUSC 24 (1.5%). [No Independents this time] Nottingham UA, Sherwood: Labour 1,174 (47.8%, -18.4%), Nottingham Independents 629 (25.6%), Conservative 320 (13.0%, -0.3%), Green 195 (7.9%), TUSC 76 (3.1%), Liberal Democrats 63 (2.6%, -9.0%). [UKIP did not stand] Rushcliffe BC, Musters: Liberal Democrats 557 (45.3%, -12.9%), Labour 353 (28.7%, +9.3%), Conservative 320 (26.0%, +3.6%). Somerset CC Comeytrowe & Trull: Liberal Democrats 1,677 (63.2%, +15.6%), Conservative 886 (33.4%, -6.4%), Labour 92 (3.5%, -2.4%). [Greens and UKIP did not stand...

The Green Party of England and Wales' leadership election of 2021, which yesterday concluded with the election of Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay as the new co-leaders of the Green Party, was the most interesting and competitive such contest since the Green Party introduced the leader and deputy leader model in 2008 to replace Principal Speakers. What key conclusions can be drawn from this leadership election, you ask? Here are my top three: 1. Moderation generally wins. As with the 2020 Green Party leader and deputy leader elections, the divisive topic of "gender politics" came to the fore. Neither candidate who took a hardline stance on the issue won the election, whereas Adrian & Carla, who did not mention the issue as much, did. Furthermore, in the second round they achieved nearly treble as many transfers (from Shahrar Ali, Tina Rothery & Martin Hemingway, and Ashley Gunstock, who were eliminated in round 1) as Amelia Womack & Tamsin Omond did. 2. The Prog...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections in the week commencing 27 September 2021 were as follows: (28/09/2021): Broadland DC, Brundall (double by-election): Green 594/530 (36.5%, +16.9%), Conservative 480/453 (30.3%, -11.3%), Liberal Democrats 425/303 (23.6%, +7.1%), Labour 161/137 (9.7%, -12.7%). Two Green gains from Conservative. Broadland DC, Old Catton & Sprowston: Conservative 721 (50.0%, +2.5%), Labour 332 (23.0%, +4.6%), Liberal Democrats 278 (19.3%, +1.8%), Green 110 (7.6%, -8.9%). (30/09/2021): East Hampshire, Horndean Downs: Green 320 (49.2%, +33.3%), Conservative 291 (44.7%, -8.0%), Independent (Alexander) 40 (6.1%, -12.6%). Green gain from Conservative. East Staffordshire DC, Tutbury & Outwoods: Conservative 549 (44.3%, -13.4%), Independent (Anderson) 464 (37.5%), Labour 186 (15.0%, -27.2%), Green 39 (3.2%). Eden DC, Penrith West: Liberal Democrats 173 (43.5%, +1.4%), Conservative 87 (21.9%, -1.8%), Independent (Thomson) 51 (12.8%), Labour 40 (10.1%, -9.4...

The German federal election of 2021 resulted in a sea of electoral change following the retirement of long-serving Chancellor Angela Merkel, which will mark a new direction not only for Germany but also in all likelihood much of Europe.  The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) [in tandem with the Christian Social Union, its more conservative sister party which only stands in Bavaria] of which Dr Merkel was leader under her tenure as Chancellor of Germany crashed and burned this election. Not only did they lose nearly half their Wahlkreise (constituency seats) with the added indignity of seeing many incumbents being pushed into third place (often by the Greens in the former West, or the AfD in the former East) in their respective constituency, but they achieved their worst ever result in terms of vote share and their worst seat total since their inaugural run in 1949. In total they won just 196 seats (nearly a quarter of whom were CSU seats) and polled only 24.1%.  By any standard...

The Icelandic parliamentary election of 2021, contrary to prior polling expectations, did not result in a situation that would oust Left-Green PM Katrin Jakobsdottir, despite the Left-Green Movement losing significant amounts of support in urban Iceland. The Left-Green Movement nevertheless lost 3 of its 11 seats and polled 12.9%, meaning it was pushed into third place by the Progressive Party, which in reality is equivalent to the Centre Parties of Norway, Sweden and Finland in terms of outlook and voter base. A primary reason the Left-Greens lost seats was the compromises that had to be made to include the Progressive and Independence Parties in Mrs Jakobsdottir's coalition, The Progressive Party polled 17.3% and won an extra 5 seats, giving it 13 and placing it second behind the usually dominant Independence Party of Iceland, equivalent to the UK's Conservative Party in practice. Part of the reason for their striking progress, though, was the scandal that the Centre Party, w...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 23 September 2021 were as follows: Charnwood BC, Shepshed West: Conservative 511 (43.6%, +3.7%), Labour 316 (26.9%, +0.0%), Green 302 (25.7%, +13.6%), Liberal Democrats 44 (3.8%, -3.0%). [UKIP did not stand] East Cambridgeshire DC, Soham North: Conservative 484 (50.8%, +8.6%), Liberal Democrats 369 (38.8%, -9.8%), Labour 71 (7.5%, -2.2%), Green 28 (2.9%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats. East Devon DC, Exe Valley: Liberal Democrats 191 (36.9%, -19.8%), Conservative 164 (31.8%, -11.5%), Labour 161 (31.3%). Epsom & Ewell BC, Cuddington: Residents' Association 585 (56.0%, -10.8%), Labour 207 (19.8%, +10.2%), Conservative 135 (12.9%, +1.3%), Liberal Democrats 117 (11.2%, -1.9%). Hammersmith & Fulham LBC, Wormholt & White City: Labour 1,462 (70.0%, -6.5%), Conservative 431 (20.6%, +6.4%), Green 110 (5.3%), Liberal Democrats 86 (4.1%, -2.3%). South Lakeland DC, Kendal North: Liberal Democrats 622 (46.9%, +7.5%),...

The Canadian general election of 21 September 2021, called by current Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau so voters could assess his performance during the recent coronavirus pandemic-nothing else-turned out largely to be a considerable waste of time and Canadian taxpayers' money. Mr. Trudeau's attempt to regain the parliamentary majority he and the Liberals lost in 2019 failed-he made a net gain of only one seat compared to 2019, falling 12 seats short of an overall majority. The (Canadian) Conservatives under Erin O'Toole, meanwhile, actually made a net loss of 2 seats and notably all but two of their losses were in Alberta (the only landlocked province in Canada, and also their strongest province) and British Columbia (their weakest province and the only Canadian province with a Pacific coastline). The New Democratic Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, made a net gain of 1 seat, with their only 2 losses involving ridings where the incumbent was retiring; that said Nunavut wa...

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 16 September 2021 were as follows: Ealing LBC, Hobbayne: Labour 1,617 (52.2%, +1.1%), Conservative 865 (27.9%, +8.2%), Green 362 (11.7%, -1.7%), Liberal Democrats 207 (6.7%, +0.3%), TUSC 48 (1.5%). [Duma Polska and an Independent did not stand] Malvern Hills DC, Tenbury: Independent (Bruton) 481 (55.9%), Conservative 269 (31.3%), Labour 78 (9.1%), Liberal Democrats 32 (3.7%). Independent gain from Conservative; Conservatives were unopposed in 2019. Middlesbrough UA, Ladgate: Independent (Grainge) 362 (34.8%), Conservative 315 (30.3%, -9.8%), Labour 226 (21.7%, -38.2%), Independent (Platt) 121 (11.6%), Liberal Democrats 14 (1.3%), Independent (Hoban) 3 (0.3%). Independent gain from Labour. Sheffield MBC, Firth Park: Labour 1,091 (40.2%, -16.5%), Liberal Democrats 1,050 (38.7%, +34.1%), Conservative 258 (9.5%, -14.7%), Green 162 (6.0%, -3.8%), Independent (Worrall) 155 (5.7%). All changes are since May. The Independent win in ...

  Yesterday's Norwegian parliamentary election of 2021 marked a surprising defeat for the Conservative (Hoyre)-led coalition (with the Liberals and Christian Democrats as coalition partners, with the Progress Party having withdrawn from it in 2020) of Erna Solberg, and just four months ago the Conservatives were about to displace Labour (Arbeitpartiet) as the largest party in the Storting, Norway's parliament. Instead it was Jonas Gahr Store, leader of Labour, and also the other opposition parties (Centre, Socialist Left, the Greens, and the Red Party), who emerged triumphant in this election. The Conservatives lost 9 seats, and the Progress Party's withdrawal from Mrs Solberg's coalition did them no favours either, as they lost 6 seats and dropped to 4th place behind the Centre Party. The Liberals fared surprisingly well despite still being in the governing coalition-contrary to expectations they stayed above the 4% threshold required for compensatory list seats and ev...