My analysis of British local by-elections from 23 September 2021 and also of the Manx general election of 2021

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 23 September 2021 were as follows:

Charnwood BC, Shepshed West: Conservative 511 (43.6%, +3.7%), Labour 316 (26.9%, +0.0%), Green 302 (25.7%, +13.6%), Liberal Democrats 44 (3.8%, -3.0%). [UKIP did not stand]

East Cambridgeshire DC, Soham North: Conservative 484 (50.8%, +8.6%), Liberal Democrats 369 (38.8%, -9.8%), Labour 71 (7.5%, -2.2%), Green 28 (2.9%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats.

East Devon DC, Exe Valley: Liberal Democrats 191 (36.9%, -19.8%), Conservative 164 (31.8%, -11.5%), Labour 161 (31.3%).

Epsom & Ewell BC, Cuddington: Residents' Association 585 (56.0%, -10.8%), Labour 207 (19.8%, +10.2%), Conservative 135 (12.9%, +1.3%), Liberal Democrats 117 (11.2%, -1.9%).

Hammersmith & Fulham LBC, Wormholt & White City: Labour 1,462 (70.0%, -6.5%), Conservative 431 (20.6%, +6.4%), Green 110 (5.3%), Liberal Democrats 86 (4.1%, -2.3%).

South Lakeland DC, Kendal North: Liberal Democrats 622 (46.9%, +7.5%), Green 527 (39.8%, +15.7%), Conservative 122 (9.2%, -13.5%), Labour 54 (4.1%, -9.7%).

Despite the recent energy crisis and driver crisis being attributable to Brexit, this did not prevent the Conservatives putting in strong performances in the majority of these by-elections, even gaining Soham North from the Liberal Democrats, and arguably they only polled badly in Kendal North due to tactical voting. Said recent energy crisis did boost the Green vote, but not enough for any Green gains although they came close in Kendal North, an unusual situation given that Liberal Democrats and Greens are rarely competitive in the same wards nowadays, as shown by the tactical squeeze on the Green Party in Soham North's by-election. Only in the Exe Valley by-election did Labour put in a good performance, although being next to Exeter it is increasingly being populated by public sector workers and academic workers priced out of Exeter city itself.

On the same day, the Isle of Man's 2021 general election occurred, and as usual Independents formed the majority of candidates elected, winning 21 of the 24 seats available in the House of Keys, the lower house of Tynwald, the Manx Parliament (the Legislative Council is the upper house of Tynwald). The Manx Labour Party reentered the House of Keys by winning seats in Douglas South and Douglas East, and narrowly missed out on a third seat in Garff. Liberal Vannin meanwhile was nearly wiped out, with only its leader Lawrie Hooper retaining his seat in Ramsey, although ex-Liberal Vannin MHK Julie Edge retained her seat in Onchan. For the first time ever, Green Party candidates contested House of Keys seats, although neither came close to being elected; they have however sent a clear message that the climate emergency issue must be taken seriously on the Isle of Man. The most notable defeat of the 2021 Manx general election was Manx Home Affairs Minister Graham Cregeen finishing last in Arbory, Castletown and Malew, 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

My analysis of the Swedish general election of 2022

The Swedish general election of 2022 generated some surprising results, despite also averting pollsters' predictions significantly. The last three years in particular proved to be a rough ride for the Social Democrat led governments of Stefan Lofven and Magdalena Andersson respectively. Although Sweden's laxer approach to the COVID-19 pandemic (compared to most countries in Europe, which imposed lockdowns during much of 2020 and 2021, an approach that arguably caused more problems than it solved) proved effective, Mr Lofven's desire to lift the austerity tax (which only affected a wealthy minority, similar in nature to the wealth tax initiative of former French President Francois Hollande) and to join NATO proved contentious, with two of the Social Democrats' former coalition partners (the Swedish Greens and Swedish Left Party, who had both pulled out of confidence and supply) unsurprisingly voting against Swedish accession to NATO membership (all other parties in the R
Read more

On the 2020 Serbian election: Why a boycott will only worsen things there

First of all, I apologise for the recent hiatus; however elections are still postponed or on hold in many countries, including the UK. Serbia, however, was able to proceed with its 2020 general election amidst this crisis. Its overall result proved reminiscent of Hungarian elections under Viktor Orban's tenure (2010-present), since the leading national-conservative coalition, the SNS (Progressive Party of Serbia) coalition led by Serbian President Aleksander Vucic (Ana Brnabic is the Serbian Prime Minister, and the first woman and openly homosexual person to hold that position), polled 61.6% of the vote, giving them as many as 191 seats out of 250 and a majority of as high as 132, almost unheard of in any country with proportional representation. Press freedom has endured significant curbs since President Vucic first came into power as Serbian PM in 2012 (he became President of Serbia in 2017), as have civil liberties of Serbs in general. Nepotism and corruption in the Serbian
Read more

On the Spanish regional elections of 2023-a warning for progressives

The Spanish regional elections of 2023, especially those in the "Empty Spain" regions far west of the federal capital of Madrid and prosperous yet famously rebellious Catalonia, resulted in a sharp shift towards conservatism and conservative populism. Both Partido Popular (PP, Spain's equivalent of the Conservatives) and Vox (the Spanish equivalent of Reform UK/UKIP) made sweeping gains in all regions, notably taking overall control in Madrid (normally an impossible feat under Spain's PR system), more than doubling their seat total in Valencia to top the poll there, and wresting control of Asturias, La Rioja, and Cantabria from the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE, Spain's equivalent of Labour) and the Cantabrian Regionalist Party respectively. Under the tenure of Pedro Sanchez, the current PSOE-Podemos coalition is floundering and has not done much to ensure Spain's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic since the last restrictions ended in 2021, and P
Read more