My analysis of British local by-elections from 4 November 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 4 November 2021 were as follows:

Gloucester BC, Longlevens: Liberal Democrats 1,520 (60.3%, +14.8%), Conservative 781 (31.0%, -16.4%), Labour 135 (5.4%), Green 86 (3.4%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Libertarian Party did not stand]

Huntingdonshire DC, Huntingdon East: Liberal Democrats 813 (55.3%, +8.8%), Conservative 656 (44.7%, +5.9%). [Labour did not stand]

Rutland UA, Oakham North West: Labour 293 (62.6%), Conservative 175 (37.4%). Labour gain from Independent [No Independent candidates this time].

Salford MBC, Blackfriars & Trinity: Labour 408 (51.3%, -7.1%), Green 160 (20.3%, -1.2%), Liberal Democrats 152 (19.3%, +14.1%), Conservative 68 (8.6%, +0.4%). [No Independent candidates this time[.

West Lancashire DC, North Meols: Conservative 634 (64.9%, +15.6%), Labour 343 (35.1%, -3.0%). All changes are since May 2019.

West Sussex CC, Bourne: Liberal Democrats 1,180 (51.8%, +22.8%), Conservative 893 (39.2%, -11.7%), Green 178 (7.8%, -3.1%), Labour 25 (1.1%, -8.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

In the four by-elections in which they stood this week, the Liberal Democrats had strong performances all around, gaining two seats, holding one with an increased majority, and nearly overtaking the Greens in the Greens' best ward in Salford. In the midst of the parliamentary sleaze scandal surrounding Owen Paterson in particular (Mr Paterson has since resigned as MP for North Shropshire), the Liberal Democrats did particularly well against the Conservatives, who predictably did badly all around except in the North Meols by-election. Their most surprising result was their gain of Bourne, comprising the rural hinterland just west of the city of Chichester. 

Their gain in Oakham North West aside, which happened primarily due to them being the only opposition to the Conservatives in that by-election, Labour had a poor week by-elections wise, particularly in North Meols where their four-time parliamentary candidate for Southport, Liz Savage, was the candidate, and North Meols ward could be incorporated into Southport in the next round of boundary changes (the Boundary Commission of England recommended it in their initial proposals). Meanwhile, the Greens retained their runner-up position in the Blackfriars & Trinity by-election but failed to come close to winning it from Labour despite experiencing a swing in their favour, albeit only just under 3%.

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