My analysis of British local by-elections from 4 November 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 4 November 2021 were as follows:

Gloucester BC, Longlevens: Liberal Democrats 1,520 (60.3%, +14.8%), Conservative 781 (31.0%, -16.4%), Labour 135 (5.4%), Green 86 (3.4%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Libertarian Party did not stand]

Huntingdonshire DC, Huntingdon East: Liberal Democrats 813 (55.3%, +8.8%), Conservative 656 (44.7%, +5.9%). [Labour did not stand]

Rutland UA, Oakham North West: Labour 293 (62.6%), Conservative 175 (37.4%). Labour gain from Independent [No Independent candidates this time].

Salford MBC, Blackfriars & Trinity: Labour 408 (51.3%, -7.1%), Green 160 (20.3%, -1.2%), Liberal Democrats 152 (19.3%, +14.1%), Conservative 68 (8.6%, +0.4%). [No Independent candidates this time[.

West Lancashire DC, North Meols: Conservative 634 (64.9%, +15.6%), Labour 343 (35.1%, -3.0%). All changes are since May 2019.

West Sussex CC, Bourne: Liberal Democrats 1,180 (51.8%, +22.8%), Conservative 893 (39.2%, -11.7%), Green 178 (7.8%, -3.1%), Labour 25 (1.1%, -8.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

In the four by-elections in which they stood this week, the Liberal Democrats had strong performances all around, gaining two seats, holding one with an increased majority, and nearly overtaking the Greens in the Greens' best ward in Salford. In the midst of the parliamentary sleaze scandal surrounding Owen Paterson in particular (Mr Paterson has since resigned as MP for North Shropshire), the Liberal Democrats did particularly well against the Conservatives, who predictably did badly all around except in the North Meols by-election. Their most surprising result was their gain of Bourne, comprising the rural hinterland just west of the city of Chichester. 

Their gain in Oakham North West aside, which happened primarily due to them being the only opposition to the Conservatives in that by-election, Labour had a poor week by-elections wise, particularly in North Meols where their four-time parliamentary candidate for Southport, Liz Savage, was the candidate, and North Meols ward could be incorporated into Southport in the next round of boundary changes (the Boundary Commission of England recommended it in their initial proposals). Meanwhile, the Greens retained their runner-up position in the Blackfriars & Trinity by-election but failed to come close to winning it from Labour despite experiencing a swing in their favour, albeit only just under 3%.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

My analysis of local by-elections from 22/11/18

Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections were as follows: Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Conservative 1540 (52.4%, +12.7%), Labour 828 (28.2%, -8.3%), Liberal Democrats 313 (10.7%, -0.8%), Green 127 (4.3%, -6.6%), WEP 79 (2.7%), Independent (Oyaloyu) 50 (1.7%). [UKIP did not stand] Westminster LBC, Lancaster Gate: Conservative 913 (47.2%, -1.5%), Labour 684 (35.4%, -1.0%), Liberal Democrats 275 (14.2%, -0.7%), Green 62 (3.2%). Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Datchet: Conservative 525 (56.0%, -3.1%), National Flood Prevention Party 223 (23.8%), Labour 121 (12.9%, -9.1%), Liberal Democrats 48 (5.1%,-13.8%), Green 21 (2.2%). Wirral MBC, Upton: Labour 1490 (61.3%, +3.1%), Conservative 705 (29.0%, +0.4%), Green 151 (6.2%, -0.5%), Liberal Democrats 83 (3.4%, -0.8%). [TUSC did not stand] All changes are since May. The open divisions in the Conservatives, which resulted in a failed attempt to call for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May by the European Researc...
Read more

On the 2020 Serbian election: Why a boycott will only worsen things there

First of all, I apologise for the recent hiatus; however elections are still postponed or on hold in many countries, including the UK. Serbia, however, was able to proceed with its 2020 general election amidst this crisis. Its overall result proved reminiscent of Hungarian elections under Viktor Orban's tenure (2010-present), since the leading national-conservative coalition, the SNS (Progressive Party of Serbia) coalition led by Serbian President Aleksander Vucic (Ana Brnabic is the Serbian Prime Minister, and the first woman and openly homosexual person to hold that position), polled 61.6% of the vote, giving them as many as 191 seats out of 250 and a majority of as high as 132, almost unheard of in any country with proportional representation. Press freedom has endured significant curbs since President Vucic first came into power as Serbian PM in 2012 (he became President of Serbia in 2017), as have civil liberties of Serbs in general. Nepotism and corruption in the Serbian ...
Read more

On the French local elections of 2020: Vive le surge de vert!

The French local elections finally concluded yesterday, having been originally scheduled to take place on 15 March; they were postponed due to the effects of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.  The most sensational story of these elections was the many triumphs by the main French Green Party, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV). In major French cities (those with more than 100,000 people), EELV captured the mayoralties of Annecy, Besancon, Bordeaux, Lyon, Marseille, Strasbourg, and Tours. They also performed impressively in the munciipal elections for those cities as well. However, in the midst of all this triumph there was one notable setback for them: Eric Pollie, the first Green Mayor of a major French city, decided to contest the mayoral election there as an "Independent Left" (divers gauche) candidate instead. Furthermore they narrowly missed out on unseating former PS leader Martine Aubry from her post as Mayor of Lille; in the second round she held on by 227 votes, a sig...
Read more