My analysis of British local by-elections from 16 September 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 16 September 2021 were as follows:

Ealing LBC, Hobbayne: Labour 1,617 (52.2%, +1.1%), Conservative 865 (27.9%, +8.2%), Green 362 (11.7%, -1.7%), Liberal Democrats 207 (6.7%, +0.3%), TUSC 48 (1.5%). [Duma Polska and an Independent did not stand]

Malvern Hills DC, Tenbury: Independent (Bruton) 481 (55.9%), Conservative 269 (31.3%), Labour 78 (9.1%), Liberal Democrats 32 (3.7%). Independent gain from Conservative; Conservatives were unopposed in 2019.

Middlesbrough UA, Ladgate: Independent (Grainge) 362 (34.8%), Conservative 315 (30.3%, -9.8%), Labour 226 (21.7%, -38.2%), Independent (Platt) 121 (11.6%), Liberal Democrats 14 (1.3%), Independent (Hoban) 3 (0.3%). Independent gain from Labour.

Sheffield MBC, Firth Park: Labour 1,091 (40.2%, -16.5%), Liberal Democrats 1,050 (38.7%, +34.1%), Conservative 258 (9.5%, -14.7%), Green 162 (6.0%, -3.8%), Independent (Worrall) 155 (5.7%). All changes are since May.

The Independent win in Tenbury was not surprising, given how complacent councillors and council groups get when they are elected unopposed in an election, as the Conservatives were in Tenbury ward in 2019 (Conservatives being elected unopposed in at least one ward are par for the course in local elections in Malvern Hills, mainly in the northern villages and small towns near Leominster, Herefordshire).

An independent gain in Ladgate's by-election was assured although surprisingly it was not the independent supported by the Middlesbrough Independent Group, namely Sharon Platt, who finished a poor fourth instead. Tony Grainge was the victorious independent candidate here, primarily winning votes from lapsed Labour supporters who are just as unimpressed with Sir Keir Starmer as they are with Jeremy Corbyn, even after the National Insurance hike of last week, and the various defections from Middlesbrough's Labour group since May 2019 only add salt to the wound psephologically. 

Even though Labour no longer have overall control of Sheffield council, they are still the administration and thus still unpopular locally, as a near-miss by the Liberal Democrats in normally safe Firth Park ward proved this week, with a 25.3% swing to the Liberal Democrats to boot. 

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