My analysis of British local by-elections from 28 September and 30 September 2021

Readers, the results of British local by-elections in the week commencing 27 September 2021 were as follows:

(28/09/2021):

Broadland DC, Brundall (double by-election): Green 594/530 (36.5%, +16.9%), Conservative 480/453 (30.3%, -11.3%), Liberal Democrats 425/303 (23.6%, +7.1%), Labour 161/137 (9.7%, -12.7%). Two Green gains from Conservative.

Broadland DC, Old Catton & Sprowston: Conservative 721 (50.0%, +2.5%), Labour 332 (23.0%, +4.6%), Liberal Democrats 278 (19.3%, +1.8%), Green 110 (7.6%, -8.9%).

(30/09/2021):

East Hampshire, Horndean Downs: Green 320 (49.2%, +33.3%), Conservative 291 (44.7%, -8.0%), Independent (Alexander) 40 (6.1%, -12.6%). Green gain from Conservative.

East Staffordshire DC, Tutbury & Outwoods: Conservative 549 (44.3%, -13.4%), Independent (Anderson) 464 (37.5%), Labour 186 (15.0%, -27.2%), Green 39 (3.2%).

Eden DC, Penrith West: Liberal Democrats 173 (43.5%, +1.4%), Conservative 87 (21.9%, -1.8%), Independent (Thomson) 51 (12.8%), Labour 40 (10.1%, -9.4%), Putting Cumbria First 28 (7.0%), Green 19 (4.8%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

Sunderland MBC, Hetton: Labour 661 (31.6%, -1.7%), Liberal Democrats 634 (30.3%, +26.6%), Independent (Geddis) 386 (18.5%, -3.1%), Conservative 303 (14.5%, +8.8%), Independent (Allen) 67 (3.2%), Green 41 (2.0%). All changes are since May 2019.

Swale DC, Priory: Liberal Democrats 215 (38.1%, -13.7%), Conservative 173 (30.6%, +1.5%), Green 128 (22.7%, +15.2%), Labour 49 (8.7%, -3.0%).

West Suffolk DC, The Rows: Conservative 428 (65.2%, +26.1%), Labour 126 (19.2%), Liberal Democrats 102 (15.5%). Conservative gain from Independent. [No Independent candidates this time].

This week saw some historic breakthroughs for the Green Party, just before the result of their 2021 leadership election was announced (this will be covered in a separate blog post tomorrow). It saw the first Green Party councillors elected to Broadland District Council in Norfolk and also the first ever Green Party councillor elected at principal authority level anywhere in Hampshire. They also did well in the Priory by-election in Swale (covering the northern quarter of the town of Faversham), which also shows the Liberal Democrats' high reliance on incumbency votes at a local and national level outside middle-class, highly educated towns and suburbs (and even in them sometimes, as Faversham like so many towns close to London is heading in that direction).

Labour did poorly all round in this week's set of by-elections, and their recent conference has not helped them. They were lucky to avoid losing the Hetton by-election to the Liberal Democrats especially with Sunderland Council's continuing problems with corruption and nepotism in its Labour group, and they were also hit hard in the Tutbury & Outwoods by-election by one of their former candidates standing as an independent (and that by-election was their only realistic chance of a gain this week). The Conservatives overall fared worse, though, because they were defending more favourable territory and their gain in West Suffolk was a foregone conclusion in a small East Anglian town with no independent candidates standing to replace the former independent. It was not a good week for independent candidates, either, as two who had stood in a previous election in that ward found themselves  caught in a tactical squeeze.




Comments

  1. imogen2 October 2021 at 11:12

    Thanks Alan.
    Could noting turnout in these elections be another useful lens through which to view the events and add to understanding?

    ReplyDelete

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