My analysis of British local by-elections from 16 and 23 December 2021 and my Christmas message

 Normally, I would have posted my Christmas message for the year two days earlier and taken a break until the New Year. But because a local by-election occurred on 23 December, I could not do so.

The results of British local by-elections from 16 December and 23 December 2021 were as follows:

(16/12/21):

Argyll & Bute UA, Lomond North (1st preference votes): Conservative 742 (40.7%, +11.3%), SNP 459 (25.2%, +5.0%), Independent (Irvine) 418 (22.9%), Independent (Macintyre) 204 (11.2%, +0.5%). Conservative hold at stage 3. [Labour, Liberal Democrats and other Independents did not stand]

Ashford DC, Highfield: Green 191 (40.0%, +21.2%), Conservative 163 (34.1%, -7.0%), Ashford Independent 101 (21.1%, -7.4%), Labour 23 (4.8%). Green gain from Conservative. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]

Bridgend UA, Caerau: Independent (Davies) 515 (48.8%), Labour 441 (41.8%, -7.1%), Plaid Cymru 82 (7.1%), Conservative 18 (1.7%). Independent gain from Labour. [Other Independents did not stand]

Horsham DC, Roffey South: Liberal Democrats 462 (41.5%, +0.7%), Conservative 335 (30.1%, -11.5%), Green 222 (19.9%), Labour 95 (8.5%, -9.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

Lichfield DC, Armitage & Handsacre: Conservative 458 (60.3%, +0.1%), Labour 301 (39.7%, -0.1%).

Medway UA, Rochester East: Labour 870 (63.3%, +14.6%), Conservative 388 (28.2%, +10.4%). Green 69 (5.0%, -9.7%), Liberal Democrats 48 (3.5%, -3.0%). 

Middlesbrough UA, North Ormesby: Labour 172 (74.5%, +47.7%), Independent (Horkan) 32 (13.9%), Conservative 20 (8.7%, -0.9%), Liberal Democrats 7 (3.0%). Labour gain from Independent.

Northumberland UA, Hexham East: Liberal Democrats 584 (47.3%, +11.7%), Conservative 370 (30.0%, -13.9%), Labour 154 (12.5%, -8.1%), Independent (Willscroft-Ferris) 127 (10.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

Telford & The Wrekin UA, Dawley & Aqueduct: Labour 996 (55.8%, -6.7%), Conservative 735 (41.2%, +3.6%), Liberal Democrats 55 (3.1%).

Walsall MBC, Pleck* : Labour 698 (64.6%, -10.2%), Conservative 382 (35.4%, +10.2%). All changes are since May 2021.

West Berkshire UA, Tilehurst South & Holybrook: Conservative 548 (42.3%, -16.6%), Labour 387 (29.9%, +4.6%), Liberal Democrats 359 (27.7%, +12.1%).

West Lindsey DC, Nettleham: Liberal Democrats 585 (51.0%, -0.5%), Conservative 374 (32.6%, -15.9%), Labour 116 (10.1%)., Green 71 (6.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

(23/12/21):

New Forest DC, Bransgore & Burley: Independent (Frampton) 617 (44.3%), Green 459 (33.0%), Conservative 258 (18.5%, -53.3%),, Labour 59 (4.2%, -23.9%). Independent gain from Conservative.

*The successful Labour candidate in the Pleck by-election was found to be ineligible for election due to holding employment with the council, and thus this by-election is undue.

It is important to note at this point that the analysis of parliamentary elections and by-elections always takes precedence over the analysis of local elections and by-elections, hence the delay in analysing the 16 December 2021 local by-elections.

On the same day of the Liberal Democrats' spectacular gain of North Shropshire, they gained three council seats from the Conservatives, although in all three cases they were the only clear competitor. The Greens' gain of Highfield in Ashford is more notable due to also having to displace the localist Ashford Independents as well. Of the 13 by-elections listed here, only 2 saw a remotely respectable Conservative performance; in Lomond North there was the usual anti-nationalist tactical voting and Telford & The Wrekin has been trending to the Conservatives noticeably in the last few years. Labour only made headway in Middlesbrough when a localist Independent spectacularly failed to retain a seat held by another Independent.

The most spectacular local by-election result of these two weeks occurred only yesterday when an Independent, backed by the resigning Conservative councillor and also by Sir Desmond Swayne, Conservative MP for New Forest West since 1997, won convincingly. Even with the odds that far in the Independent candidate's favour, the Greens managed a good second in that by-election, a sign that support for the Green Party is growing everywhere in the UK.

And now for my 2021 Christmas message:

2021 has, like 2020, been a turbulent year for so many of us, especially with a nationwide lockdown occurring for the first three months and restrictions continuing until July. Even now, the spectre of COVID-19 has not gone away although it will not continue forever as long as we are careful. The pressing need for systemic change to combat man-made climate change, particularly after the disappointment that was COP26, also remains with us. And incoming power grabs such as the Policing, Crime, Sentencing & Courts Bill, the Nationality & Borders Bill, and the Elections Bill threaten the British people's ability to hold governments to account at a time when they most need to be able to. Now is a time for unity in defence of democracy, environmentalism, and freedom, not a time for division over petty differences that mean nothing to most people.

At this time, let us all remember Green Party activists who have died in service to achieving a greener society and economy for us all, including David Whitebread, Karen Varga, Noel Lynch, Penny Kemp, Adrian Holmes, and Chris Jordan. 

Let us make the next year a more enjoyable and less isolating year than this one has been. Until then, Merry Christmas/season's greetings!


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

My analysis of local by-elections from 22/11/18

Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections were as follows: Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Conservative 1540 (52.4%, +12.7%), Labour 828 (28.2%, -8.3%), Liberal Democrats 313 (10.7%, -0.8%), Green 127 (4.3%, -6.6%), WEP 79 (2.7%), Independent (Oyaloyu) 50 (1.7%). [UKIP did not stand] Westminster LBC, Lancaster Gate: Conservative 913 (47.2%, -1.5%), Labour 684 (35.4%, -1.0%), Liberal Democrats 275 (14.2%, -0.7%), Green 62 (3.2%). Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Datchet: Conservative 525 (56.0%, -3.1%), National Flood Prevention Party 223 (23.8%), Labour 121 (12.9%, -9.1%), Liberal Democrats 48 (5.1%,-13.8%), Green 21 (2.2%). Wirral MBC, Upton: Labour 1490 (61.3%, +3.1%), Conservative 705 (29.0%, +0.4%), Green 151 (6.2%, -0.5%), Liberal Democrats 83 (3.4%, -0.8%). [TUSC did not stand] All changes are since May. The open divisions in the Conservatives, which resulted in a failed attempt to call for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May by the European Researc...
Read more

On the 2020 Serbian election: Why a boycott will only worsen things there

First of all, I apologise for the recent hiatus; however elections are still postponed or on hold in many countries, including the UK. Serbia, however, was able to proceed with its 2020 general election amidst this crisis. Its overall result proved reminiscent of Hungarian elections under Viktor Orban's tenure (2010-present), since the leading national-conservative coalition, the SNS (Progressive Party of Serbia) coalition led by Serbian President Aleksander Vucic (Ana Brnabic is the Serbian Prime Minister, and the first woman and openly homosexual person to hold that position), polled 61.6% of the vote, giving them as many as 191 seats out of 250 and a majority of as high as 132, almost unheard of in any country with proportional representation. Press freedom has endured significant curbs since President Vucic first came into power as Serbian PM in 2012 (he became President of Serbia in 2017), as have civil liberties of Serbs in general. Nepotism and corruption in the Serbian ...
Read more

On the French local elections of 2020: Vive le surge de vert!

The French local elections finally concluded yesterday, having been originally scheduled to take place on 15 March; they were postponed due to the effects of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.  The most sensational story of these elections was the many triumphs by the main French Green Party, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV). In major French cities (those with more than 100,000 people), EELV captured the mayoralties of Annecy, Besancon, Bordeaux, Lyon, Marseille, Strasbourg, and Tours. They also performed impressively in the munciipal elections for those cities as well. However, in the midst of all this triumph there was one notable setback for them: Eric Pollie, the first Green Mayor of a major French city, decided to contest the mayoral election there as an "Independent Left" (divers gauche) candidate instead. Furthermore they narrowly missed out on unseating former PS leader Martine Aubry from her post as Mayor of Lille; in the second round she held on by 227 votes, a sig...
Read more