My analysis of British local by-elections from 11 November 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 11 November 2021 (aka the 103rd Armistice Day) were as follows:

Cardiff UA, Heath: Labour 1,729 (47.1%, +14.7%), Conservative 1,120 (30.8%, +1.2%), Liberal Democrats 561 (15.3%, +12.1%), Plaid Cymru 250 (6.8%, -0.6%). Labour gain from Heath Independents, who did not defend the seat. [Greens did not stand]

Denbighshire UA, Llandrillo: Plaid Cymru 179 (44.0%), Independent (Robson) 140 (34.4%), Conservative 88 (21.6%).

Lancaster BC, University & Scotforth Rural: Labour 216 (46.1%, +3.2%), Green 193 (41.2%, +13.9%), Conservative 44 (9.4%, -8.2%), Liberal Democrats 16 (3.4%, -9.0%). 

Melton DC, Melton Dorian: Conservative 362 (56.0%, +6.5%), Labour 284 (44.0%). [Greens did not stand]

North Kesteven DC, Metheringham (double by-election): Conservative 424/404 (45.7%, +6.7%), Lincolnshire Independents 404/369 (42.6%, -18.4%), Labour 85/69 (8.5%), Liberal Democrats 29 (3.2%). Conservative gain from Lincolnshire Independent/Lincolnshire Independent hold on drawing of lots.

North Kesteven DC, Sleaford Castle: Conservative 135 (42.2%, +10.2%), Labour 93 (29.1%, -2.9%), Independent (Mason) 49 (15.3%), Independent (Fernandes) 22 (6.9%), Liberal Democrats 21 (6.6%). Conservative gain from Lincolnshire Independents, who did not defend the seat.

Thanet DC, Thanet Villages: Green 638 (60.0%, +35.4%), Conservative 358 (33.7%, +10.4%), Liberal Democrats 67 (6.3%, -13.9%).

Even with sleaze still being in the news, particularly relating to the consultancy work of Sir Geoffrey Cox (Conservative MP for Torridge & West Devon since 2005) in the British Virgin Islands amidst a debate about whether "second jobs" for MPs should be banned, the Conservatives increased their vote share in every by-election except that of University & Scotforth Rural in Lancaster, although in the case of the two North Kesteven by-elections this was due to a decline in Lincolnshire Independents activity, to the point that they did not defend their seat in Sleaford. However, it did contribute to the fact the Greens held Thanet Villages easily and with nearly twice the Conservatives' vote, despite the circumstances of that by-election (Trevor Roper intended to buy a house in France, but upon doing so could not return to the UK because by that point coronavirus restrictions kicked in, meaning he eventually had to resign from Thanet District council) and the fact that in 2019 he was the only Green candidate for that ward. Had there been a Green candidate in Melton Dorian it is likely the Greens would have gained that ward as well, with them having won one of the seats in Melton Dorian in 2019.

Also notable is the near-miss for the Greens in University & Scotforth Rural, a ward comprised almost entirely of student electors being based around the main campus of Lancaster University; three days prior it became the 92nd university in the UK to divest from fossil fuels. Even though Labour is not doing particularly well amongst student voters, it is clear that low turnout levels amongst student voters in general, combined with the fact they generally only stay for one election cycle, mean that campaigns in wards with a particularly high student population are less likely to be effective. Meanwhile, in Heath ward, Cardiff, a local election pact between the Green Party and Plaid Cymru in Cardiff, not unlike that of the early 1990s, failed to make a significant impact, although the fact that Heath ward is a classic Conservative-Labour marginal meant the Plaid Cymru vote, which in Cardiff is only strong in the west of the city, was squeezed despite the pact.



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