My analysis of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of December 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of December 2021 were as follows: (NB: I postponed my coverage of the 2nd December local by-elections to write a feature piece on the Old Bexley & Sidcup parliamentary by-election)

(2/12/21):

Adur DC, Hillside: Conservative 414 (56.2%, -6.3%), Green 175 (23.7%, +17.1%), Labour 148 (20.1%, -7.7%). All changes are since May 2018.

Breckland DC, Hermitage: Conservative 243 (45.0%, -26.3%), Liberal Democrats 221 (40.9%), Labour 66 (12.2%, -16.5%), Workers Party 10 (1.9%).

Highland UA, Fort William & Ardamurchan (1st preference votes): SNP 905 (39.6%, +6.7%), Conservative 485 (21.2%, +8.5%), Green 328 (14.3%), Liberal Democrats 231 (10.1%, +5.5%), Independent (McKenna) 194 (8.5%), Independent (Mathieson) 88 (3.8%, -0.4%), Mark Drayton 56 (2.4%).

Lancaster DC, Bare: Liberal Democrats 428 (33.1%, +24.6%), Green 301 (23.3%, +16.2%), Morecambe Bay Independents 243 (18.8%, -13.9%), Conservative 215 (16.6%, -13.2%), Labour 107 (8.3%, -9.4%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

Lancaster DC, Upper Lune: Liberal Democrats 390 (63.1%, +19.1%), Conservative 183 (29.6%, -16.3%), Green 24 (3.9%), Labour 21 (3.4%, -6.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

Newport UA, Victoria: Labour 641 (64.6%, +17.0%), Liberal Democrats 258 (26.0%, +6.3%), Conservative 93 (9.4%, -11.2%). [Greens did not stand]

North Norfolk DC, Stalham: Conservative 559 (55.2%, +27.2%), Liberal Democrats 375 (37.0%, -11.6%), Labour 79 (7.8%, -0.5%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat.

Warwick DC, Whitnash: Whitnash Residents' Association 835 (55.2%, +4.7%), Labour 431 (28.5%, +6.5%), Conservative 127 (8.4%, +2.3%), Green 88 (5.8%, -3.0%), Liberal Democrats 32 (2.1%, -2.4%).

Wealden DC, Hartfield: Green 589 (55.8%, +12.7%), Conservative 467 (44.2%, -12.7%). Green gain from Conservative.

Worthing BC, Marine: Labour 1,239 (50.2%, +17.6%), Conservative 972 (39.4%, -1.6%), Green 145 (5.9%, -3.7%), Liberal Democrats 112 (4.5%, -3.8%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since May 2019.

(9/12/21):

Bracknell Forest BC, Old Bracknell: Labour 434 (61.1%, +22.5%), Conservative 276 (38.3%, -8.9%). Labour gain from Conservative. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]

Rotherham MBC, Anston & Woodsetts: Liberal Democrats 1,016 (38.6%, +21.3%), Conservative 686 (26.1%, -2.8%), Labour 533 (20.3%, +4.5%), Independent (Jepson) 189 (7.2%, -9.4%), Independent (Ireland) 118 (4.5%, -7.5%), Green 63 (2.4%, -6.0%), Yorkshire Party 20 (0.8%), Rotherham Democratic Party 6 (0.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Workers Party did not stand]

Rotherham MBC, Aughton & Swallownest: Labour 645 (49.8%, +14.8%), Conservative 496 (38.3%, +4.1%), Green 59 (4.6%), Yorkshire Party 35 (2.7%), TUSC 32 (2.5%), Rotherham Democratic Party 15 (1.2%, -16.9%), Liberal Democrats 14 (1.1%, -4.6%). Labour gain from Conservative. [Workers Party did not stand]

Tonbridge & Malling DC, Castle: Green 731 (59.3%, +35.9%), Conservative 454 (36.8%, -7.8%), Labour 48 (3.9%, -3.9%). Green gain from Conservative. [Liberal Democrats did not stand[

Tonbridge & Malling DC, Kings Hill: Conservative 740 (59.3%, +24.2%), Independent (Westlake) 316 (25.3%), Liberal Democrats 191 (15.3%, +1.4%). [Other Independents did not stand]

Tonbridge & Malling DC, West Malling & Leybourne: Liberal Democrats 776 (49.6%, +23.6%), Conservative 624 (39.8%, +10.2%), Green 137 (8.7%), Labour 29 (1.9%, -3.5%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Other Independents did not stand]

Torridge DC, Northam: Conservative 386 (38.7%, +18.7%), Liberal Democrats 230 (23.1%, +8.5%), Green 224 (22.5%), Labour 103 (10.3%, -1.1%), Timothy Tennant 54 (5.4%). Conservative gain from Independent. [UKIP did not stand]

On the same day as their lacklustre performance in the Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election, the Conservatives managed to lose four of the six wards they were defending in local by-elections, and in all four cases given recent local trends this was expected. The most surprising result amongst these four losses came in Bare, just east of Morecambe, where it was the Liberal Democrats, not the Morecambe Bay Independents (who finished third) who gained the ward, and furthermore the Greens came a good second in a Morecambe ward for the first time. Within Lancaster district, most of the Greens' support is in the city of Lancaster itself. The Conservatives' only gain that week, meanwhile, was in an area where the Liberal Democrats are psephologically winding down two years after the retirement of former North Norfolk Liberal Democrat MP Sir Norman Lamb in 2019.

The following week (i.e. yesterday), amidst revelations that a Christmas Party was held at Downing Street at the same time that London and the South East were under lockdown, with the rest of the country under severe COVID-19 related restrictions, the Conservatives lost five of the six wards they were defending in local by-elections, with tactical voting playing a part in all of them, which will be of crucial importance in the North Shropshire by-election in six days' time. The tactical squeeze was most prominent in both Rotherham by-elections, where in Anston & Woodsett two former councillors standing as Independents performed poorly, and meanwhile in Aughton & Swallownest the combined Labour and Conservative vote was 88.1%. The spectacular failure of the Rotherham Democratic Party, one of many ex-UKIP localist groups, in both elections is also notable. Whichever party does best against the Conservatives in by-elections at present is dependent on which party is the clear challenger; in both by-elections where the Greens gained the ward from the Conservatives they were the clear challenger; elsewhere it was usually the Liberal Democrats, with Marine ward in Worthing, notable for the scandal that caused the by-election in the first place (the resigning Conservative councillor was found to have links with a far-right group and was subsequently suspended from the Conservative Party) being primarily a Labour-Conservative contest, and in May the seaside town was one of the few areas Labour gained significant ground. It is therefore surprising that the Conservatives managed to win their second by-election in Torridge in as many months, primarily due to the "No Description" candidate not being supported by the Independent group who dominate that ward (he finished last).


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