My analysis of British local by-elections from 25 November 2021

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from yesterday (and there were 12 yesterday!) were as follows:

Allerdale DC, Maryport South: Labour 273 (52.9%, +11.8%), Independent (Galletly) 149 (28.9%), Conservative 94 (18.2%, +11.5%). Labour gain from Independent. [Other Independent and For Britain did not stand]

Basildon BC, Lee Chapel North: Labour 451 (39.8%, +0.8%), Conservative 395 (34.8%, -2.4%), Residents 135 (11.9%, -2.4%), Reform UK 98 (8.6%, +3.7%), Liberal Democrats 55 (4.8%, +0.3%). All changes are since May 2021.

Halton UA, Halton North: Labour 373 (60.3%, +9.7%), Green 117 (18.9%), Independent (Whyte) 69 (11.1%, -7.9%), Conservative 45 (7.3%, -11.4%), Liberal Democrats 15 (2.4%, -9.3%). All changes are since May 2021.

Hambleton DC, Raskelf & White Horse: Conservative 288 (55.7%, -2.9%), Liberal Democrats 127 (24.6%), Green 102 (19.7%, -21.7%).

Lancaster DC, Carnforth & Millhead: Labour 538 (57.7%, +25.5%), Conservative 315 (33.8%, -0.6%), Green 54 (5.8%, -4.3%), Liberal Democrats 25 (2.7%). [No Independents this time]

Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Knutton: Conservative 188 (51.1%, +25.8%), Labour 180 (48.9%, -25.8%). Conservative gain from Labour.

Nuneaton & Bedworth BC, Bar Pool: Conservative 508 (55.3%, +14.4%), Labour 215 (23.4%, -26.7%), Green 196 (21.3%, +12.2%). Conservative gain from Labour; all changes are since 2018.

Tunbridge Wells DC, Speldhurst & Bidborough: Tunbridge Wells Alliance 788 (49.8%, +24.5%), Conservative 730 (46.1%, +5.8%), Labour 65 (4.1%, -3.9%). Tunbridge Wells Alliance gain from Conservative; all changes are since May 2021. [Liberal Democrats and Greens did not stand]

Wandsworth LBC, Bedford: Labour 406 (40.2%, -9.0%), Conservative 405 (40.2%, +5.2%), Green 306 (13.6%, +3.8%), Liberal Democrats 135 (6.0%, +0.0%).

West Suffolk DC, Horringer: Conservative 257 (47.7%, -21.2%), Labour 204 (37.8%, +6.7%), Liberal Democrats 78 (14.5%). 

Wigan MBC, Bryn: Labour 429 (31.2%, +8.2%), Independent (Richardson) 412 (30.0%), Independent (Fairhurst) 353 (25.7%), Conservative 142 (10.3%, +2.1%), Liberal Democrats 38 (2.8%, +1.1%). Labour gain from Independent; all changes are since May 2021.

Wirral MBC, Oxton: Liberal Democrats 1,666 (68.3%, +11.2%), Labour 460 (18.8%, -7.1%), Conservative 168 (6.9%, -1.2%), Green 147 (6.0%, -1.5%). All changes are since May 2021.

On the same day, the North Yorkshire Police, Fire & Crime Commissioner by-election, following the resignation of Phillip Allott after just five months in the post, took place. Here are its results:

Zoe Metcalfe, Conservative, 34,385 (40.1%, -7.0%)

Emily Scott-Spivey, Labour, 18,094 (21.1%, -5.0%)

Keith Tordoff, Independent, 14,988 (17.5%, +3.2%)

James Barker, Liberal Democrats, 9,499 (11.1%, -1.4%)

Hannah Barham-Brown, Women's Equality Party, 8,837 (10.2%).

Given the demographics of North Yorkshire (the largest county of England despite it being only one of the ridings of Yorkshire, sparsely populated, and relatively affluent) it is not surprising that Zoe Metcalfe was able to retain the post of North Yorkshire Police, Fire & Crime Commissioner albeit not as convincingly as Phillip Allot did in May. Mr Allott resigned after making insensitive comments about women shortly after former Metropolitan Police Constable Wayne Couzens was convicted of Sarah Everard's murder, and the Police Crime and Fire panel of North Yorkshire subsequently unanimously voted no confidence in Mr Allott. This is the key reason why the Women's Equality Party performed particularly well in this by-election, although second round transfers from them and the Liberal Democrats were not nearly enough for Labour to gain the post.

Even though the Conservatives have been trailing slightly behind Labour in recent opinion polls following the recent sleaze scandal, not to mention reports of backbench Conservative MPs filing votes of no confidence in Boris Johnson (https://metro.co.uk/2021/11/24/boris-johnson-a-dozen-tory-mps-write-letters-of-no-confidence-15654738/), their performance was surprisingly strong, gaining the safe Labour ward of Knutton (and there are not many safe Labour wards in Newcastle-under-Lyme anymore) on a 25.8% swing and only narrowly failing to win Bedford ward in Wandsworth, territory particularly unfavourable to the Conservatives at present, and losing only the Speldhurst & Bidborough by-election (to the localist Tunbridge Wells Alliance) of the seats they were defending; residents' associations are continuing to gain traction in the south east.

Apart from their crushing loss of Bar Pool in Nuneaton & Bedworth (a foregone conclusion given how much Nuneaton & Bedworth has shifted to the Conservatives) and 8-vote loss of Knutton, Labour polled strongly this week, increasing their vote share in the majority of this week's by-elections and gaining two seats previously held by independents, and both Allerdale and Wigan have been trending away from Labour at both local and parliamentary levels. In the latter case, a split of the anti-Labour vote between the two Independent candidates (one endorsed by the Independent councillor who had stood down, the other endorsed by another independent group) aided a Labour gain.

Both the Greens and Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, were left disappointed. Having come a close second in Raskelf & White Horse in 2019, the Greens finished third behind the Liberal Democrats even though the latter had not contested the ward in 2019; that said the Greens finished second in the Halton Castle by-election and nearly pushed Labour into third place in the Bar Pool by-election. A substantial increase in their majority in the Oxton by-election, which they were defending, marked the Liberal Democrats' only high point of this week.



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