My analysis of British local by-elections from 14 October 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from yesterday were as follows:

Falkirk UA, Falkirk South (1st preference votes): SNP 1,691 (39.2%, +3.5%), Conservative 1,679 (38.9%, +6.8%), Labour 679 (15.7%, -11.4%), Green 267 (6.2%, +1.1%). SNP gain from Labour at stage 4.

Harrow LBC, Pinner South: Conservative 1,392 (60.5%, +1.8%), Liberal Democrats 390 (16.9%, +2.3%), Labour 331 (14.4%, -12.3%), Green 188 (8.2%).

Surrey Heath BC, Frimley Green: Conservative 896 (48.5%, +20.3%), Liberal Democrats 877 (47.4%, -1.4%), Labour 76 (4.1%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats. [UKIP and Pirate Party did not stand]

Wigan MBC, Leigh West: Labour 1,004 (56.2%, +2.1%), Conservative 423 (23.7%, +8.2%), Leigh West Independent 257 (14.4%), Liberal Democrats 103 (5.8%, -0.8%). All changes are since May 2018. [Other Independent from 2018 did not stand]

It was a strong week for the Conservatives, with UKIP's and Reform UK's absence from the Frimley Green proving decisive to that Conservative gain, even though the Pirate Party's absence was helpful to the Liberal Democrats simultaneously; in Falkirk however it was the SNP who benefitted from transfers this time, despite Labour votes normally transferring away from the SNP in later stages. Localism has been growing strongly in the north and Midlands, but in Leigh it has not taken root enough to win seats regularly just yet, despite localist politics traditionally being strong in Wigan by Greater Manchester standards. The Leigh West Independents fared no better than their predecessor local party, Leigh, Atherton and Tydesley Together, and Labour held the seat easily.

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