My analysis of British local by-elections from the last fortnight of October 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last fortnight of October 2021 (covering 21 October 2021 and 28 October 2021) were as follows: (NB: I was at Green Party conference last weekend, hence why I did not post my analysis of last weekend's by-elections) are as follows:

(21/10/21):

Birmingham MBC, Yardley East: Liberal Democrats 1,312 (65.3%, +0.4%), Labour 609 (30.3%, +0.1%), Conservative 89 (4.4%, -0.5%).

Horsham DC, Forest: Liberal Democrats 921 (47.4%, +8.1%), Labour 517 (26.6%, +4.2%), Conservative 410 (21.1%, +0.7%), Green 97 (5.0%).

Newark & Sherwood DC, Rainworth South & Blidworth: Independent (Thompson) 650 (66.2%), Conservative 168 (17.1%, -12.2%), Labour 164 (16.7%, -22.6%). Independent gain from Labour.

(28/10/21):

Bolton MBC, Bromley Cross: Conservative 1,732 (70.0%, +8.1%), Labour 409 (16.5%, -6.6%), Green 165 (6.7%, -2.3%), Bolton for Change 99 (4.0%), Liberal Democrats 68 (2.7%, -3.2%). All changes are since May 2018, when there was a double vacancy.

Carlisle BC, Currock & Upperby: Labour 636 (57.5%, +24.1%), Conservative 412 (37.2%, +22.3%), Green 59 (5.3%). Labour gain from UKIP, who did not defend the seat. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]

Luton UA, South: Labour 547 (44.1%, +7.0%), Liberal Democrats 332 (26.8%), Conservative 198 (16.0%, +0.4%), Independent (Scheimann) 134 (10.8%, -9.4%*), Communist 28 (2.3%). [No UKIP, Green, or Independent candidates this time].

South Kesteven DC, Grantham Arnoldfield: Conservative 460 (65.0%, -8.5%), Labour 136  (19.2%, -7.3%), Green 112 (15.8%).

South Kesteven DC, Stamford All Saints: Independent (Cleaver) 496 (57.0%), Conservative 214 (24.6%, -36.9%), Independent (Story) 114 (13.1%), Independent (Sawyer) 46 (5.3%). Independent gain from Conservative.

South Staffordshire DC, Kinver: Conservative 865 (74.1%, +30.6%), Labour 154 (13.2%), Green 149 (12.8%, -17.0%).

South Staffordshire DC, Wombourne South East: Conservative 370 (50.3%, -24.6%), Green 323 (43.9%), Labour 42 (5.7%, -19.3%).

Wrexham UA, Gresford East and West: Conservative 351 (42.7%, -30.3%), Liberal Democrats 165 (20.1%, +10.1%), Plaid Cymru 163 (19.8%), Labour 132 (16.1%, -0.2%), Reform UK 6 (0.7%), Green 5 (0.6%). [No Independent candidates this time].

*This performance is compared against Marc Scheimann's performance as a Green Party candidate in the same ward in 2019.

As has been discussed before, localist independents have been gaining ground north of the Wash, but mainly in ex-industrial once solidly Labour areas. By comparison, Bolton for Change made no significant impact in solidly Conservative, suburban Bromley Cross, which was not incorporated into Bolton until 1974 and still feels slightly detached from it.

The Green Party has been making considerable progress in normally solidly Conservative South Staffordshire district, which currently has 3 Green councillors, although they slipped back in the Kinver by-election despite the absence of a Liberal Democrat candidate, which would normally have been a helpful factor to the Greens, and narrowly missed out on winning Wombourne South East despite a substantial squeeze on the Labour vote. 

The most interesting of the 11 by-elections above was that in Gresford, a suburb of Wrexham where the resigning Conservative councillor had a very strong personal vote indeed, such that in 2017 he gained the seat from third place and polled 73% to boot. The loss of that personal vote, however, did not prevent the Conservatives holding it comfortably against divided opposition, including a strong Plaid Cymru performance in an area with a relatively low Welsh-speaking population and poor prospects for Plaid Cymru (although clearly better than Flintshire, to the north of Wrexham), although it does follow on from their surprise gains in Wrexham earlier this year. Labour's poor performance, meanwhile, does not bode well for them in terms of regaining Wrexham at the next general election, especially with upcoming boundary changes which will incorporate more de facto suburbs currently in the Clwyd South constituency.


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