The Icelandic parliamentary election of 2021

The Icelandic parliamentary election of 2021, contrary to prior polling expectations, did not result in a situation that would oust Left-Green PM Katrin Jakobsdottir, despite the Left-Green Movement losing significant amounts of support in urban Iceland.

The Left-Green Movement nevertheless lost 3 of its 11 seats and polled 12.9%, meaning it was pushed into third place by the Progressive Party, which in reality is equivalent to the Centre Parties of Norway, Sweden and Finland in terms of outlook and voter base. A primary reason the Left-Greens lost seats was the compromises that had to be made to include the Progressive and Independence Parties in Mrs Jakobsdottir's coalition, The Progressive Party polled 17.3% and won an extra 5 seats, giving it 13 and placing it second behind the usually dominant Independence Party of Iceland, equivalent to the UK's Conservative Party in practice. Part of the reason for their striking progress, though, was the scandal that the Centre Party, who split from the Progressives in 2017, got embroiled in back in December 2018 when four of their MPs (along with two People's Party MPs, who were subsequently expelled from that party) were recorded making sexist and ableist remarks about disability rights activist and former MP Freyja Haralsdottir, who has osteogensis imperfecta, an incident which highlighted longstanding divisions and poor attitudes towards people with disabilities in Iceland. Notably, disability benefits in Iceland are lower than the standard unemployment benefit in Iceland, and disability-related abortions in Iceland are very frequent. The Centre Party was not wiped out despite this, but was reduced to just 3 seats and 5.4% of the vote. Meanwhile, the Independence Party fared better than expected from a traditionally liberal-conservative party entering a coalition led by Iceland's answer to the Green Party, although the 24.4% it eventually polled is its second worst ever result; only in the 2009 election after the Great Recession started did the Independence Party achieve a worse result (23.7%). 

The opposition parties generally did not fare well. The largest opposition party, the Social Democratic Alliance, dropped to 9.9% and lost 1 seat, primarily because of the intervention of the Icelandic Socialist Party, stemming from dissatisfaction with the SDA sliding from its original principles like so many social democratic parties before it, to the point where it can be considered "PASOK-ified". However, the Icelandic Socialists did not win any constituency seats, even in Reykjavik North which is the most progressive constituency in Iceland, and polling only 4.1% meant they did not win levelling seats either (the threshold for entitlement to levelling seats in the Althing is 5%), partly because the Left-Greens still have considerable support amongst the "new left". In fact only two opposition parties-the People's Party and the Liberal Reform Party- gained seats with the People's Party gaining 2, mainly due to welfare issues becoming more prominent in Iceland, despite the recent controversies they have endured.  Reform won an extra seat again due to its support for a publicly financed welfare state but its support of EU membership, which is not widely supported in Iceland especially given its geographical and social distance from the EU. The Pirate Party saw a 0.6% drop in vote share but retained all its current seats, partly due to leaking some support to the Liberal Democratic Party, which polled only 0.4% and did not come close to winning any seats, even in the South constituency which is the most conservative constituency in Iceland. The wooden spoon of this Icelandic election went to Responsible Future, primarily campaigning on an anti-COVID vaccine, anti-restrictions platform, which was only on the ballot in Reykjavik North, where it finished bottom with just 144 votes. 

Turnout was slightly down on 2017, dropping from 81.2% to 80.1% although this is normal by Icelandic standards. The governing coalition gained two seats overall meaning it will certainly continue.