My analysis of the Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election

 Readers, the votes cast in the Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election were as follows:

Elaine Cheeseman, English Democrats, 271 (1.3%)

Daniel Francis, Labour, 6,711 (30.9%, +7.4%)

Louie French, Conservative, 11,189 (51.5%, -13.1%)

Richard Hewison, Rejoin EU, 151 (0.7%)

David Kurten, Heritage Party, 116 (0.5%)

John Poynton, UKIP, 184 (0.8%)

Simone Reynolds, Liberal Democrats, 647 (3.0%, -5.3%)

Jonathan Rooks, Green Party, 830 (3.8%, +0.6%)

Richard Tice, Reform UK, 1,432 (6.6%)

Carol Valinejad, Christian Peoples' Alliance, 108 (0.5%, +0.0%)

Mad Mike Young, OMRLP., 94 (0.4%)

Conservative HOLD.

This by-election was essentially a foregone conclusion, especially since there have been only four by-elections where Labour have equalled or exceeded the 20.6% swing they would have needed to win this seat, and three of those were during Sir John Major's tenure as Prime Minister, when the Conservatives lost all eight of the by-elections where they were the  defending party, and were pushed into third place in three of those eight. The 10.2% swing directly from Conservative to Labour nevertheless represents the first such direct swing to Labour in a parliamentary by-election in 7 years, and this occurred when both the Conservative and Labour candidates were councillors in the borough this seat is in i.e. the London Borough of Bexley. The media's talk of "wobbles" in this by-election proved to be just that, with the much reduced majority (from 18,952 to 4,478) being more attributable to the dismal turnout of 34%, not only because of safely Conservative Old Bexley & SIdcup is (even in 1997 it did not come close to being gained by Labour) but also because of the near-freezing temperatures on the day of poll. The sleaze and second jobs issues were significant in this by-election, and Mr French made a pledge not to take any second jobs if he was elected; in the run-up to this by-election 3 Conservative MPs announced they were resigning from their second jobs as well.

Even though they put in a strong effort in this by-election, and fielded their leader Richard Tice, Reform UK made little impact in this by-election, only managing to save their deposit. Reform UK's appeal in post-Brexit Britain is limited and its impact insignificant, and this by-election proved to be no exception. Furthermore, the "right-of-Conservative" vote was indirectly splintered by the English Democrats, UKIP, and Heritage parties.

More notable is tactical voting in Labour's favour. The Liberal Democrats dropped from third to fifth place and lost their deposit, but then again this was expected as they were not in contention in this seat at all and have no significant base of any kind in Old Bexley & Sidcup; furthermore many voters who had voted for them in 2019 on the back of supporting Britain remaining in the EU returned to the Labour fold. The Greens, whilst not managing to save their deposit despite environmental issues also being significant in the national agenda, achieved their best ever result in this constituency and crucially finished ahead of the Liberal Democrats in psephologically infertile territory.  Once again, Rejoin EU flopped-there is no real appetite for rejoining the EU at present and those who would believe it is such a key issue already have other parties to vote for. The wooden spoon of this by-election went surprisingly to Mad Mike Young of the Official Monster Raving Loony Party, although 94 votes is not a bad total for a "wooden spoon" recipient, especially with such a poor turnout.


Comments

  1. Unknown4 December 2021 at 12:59

    Hi Alan, thanks for sharing this. I'd like to know your thoughts as to why the Labour Party is unable to take advantage from the Tories' disastrous bungling of the Covid crisis and clear corruption. Is it because Starmer is positioning himself as the party of business? I'm sure you have some thoughts about this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Alan B6 December 2021 at 21:51

      Primarily, yes; Sir Keir Starmer is trying to make the Labour Party more electable in his eyes by moving it back towards the political centre.

      Delete
  2. Corinna Lotz4 December 2021 at 13:02

    that comment was by me, Corinna

    ReplyDelete
  3. clivelord.wordpress.com5 December 2021 at 12:39

    Yes,3.8% may have been the Green Party's best percentage result in the constituency, but we LOST 647 votes from our (poor) 3,2% tally at the 2019 general election. Despite COP26, I do not think the public take climate breakdown seriously yet. So I admit it is not 'centre stage'.
    I shall apologise if I am wrong, but I see 3.8% with COP26 fresh in the media as evidence that Jonathan Rooks fell into the long standing, serious strategic error of telling Conservatives we do not wish to be allies in the ecological struggle.
    In 1979, PEOPLE (later the Green Party) an unknown new party got 1,829 votes in Barkston Ash (Wetherby), 1,403 in Taunton, and 1,267 in Rye, both among the highest Con majorities.

    As I write, I have received a notification that Alan has commented. I look forward to reading it.

    ReplyDelete

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