My analysis of British local by-elections from 7 October 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 7 October 2021 were as follows:

Flintshire UA, Pennyffordd: Labour 437 (37.4%), Independent (Saxon) 286 (24.5%), Independent (Ransome) 281 (24.2%), Independent (Wakelam) 163 (13.9%). Labour gain from Independent.

Nottingham UA, St Ann's: Labour 1,048 (65.5%, +0.8%), Nottingham Independents 204 (11.7%), Conservative 193 (12.1%, +1.9%), Green 92 (5.7%), Liberal Democrats 40 (2.5%, -8.2%), TUSC 24 (1.5%). [No Independents this time]

Nottingham UA, Sherwood: Labour 1,174 (47.8%, -18.4%), Nottingham Independents 629 (25.6%), Conservative 320 (13.0%, -0.3%), Green 195 (7.9%), TUSC 76 (3.1%), Liberal Democrats 63 (2.6%, -9.0%). [UKIP did not stand]

Rushcliffe BC, Musters: Liberal Democrats 557 (45.3%, -12.9%), Labour 353 (28.7%, +9.3%), Conservative 320 (26.0%, +3.6%).

Somerset CC Comeytrowe & Trull: Liberal Democrats 1,677 (63.2%, +15.6%), Conservative 886 (33.4%, -6.4%), Labour 92 (3.5%, -2.4%). [Greens and UKIP did not stand]

Somerset West & Taunton DC, Wilton & Sherford: Liberal Democrats 489 (56.9%, -11.5%), Conservative 314 (36.5%, +4.9%), Green 57 (6.6%).

Waverley DC, Cranleigh East: Liberal Democrats 903 (56.8%, +13.2%), Conservative 686 (43.2%, +4.8%). [Labour did not stand]

Of these seven by-elections, only one changed hands, and this was hardly surprising given that the three Independent candidates had a strong enough personal vote which actually worked against all of them and allowed Labour to slip through the middle, in another exercise of why first past the post is bad for democracy. Tactical voting would not have helped here either as only one political party was standing in that by-election.

In Nottingham, ongoing troubles within Nottingham East CLP since the suspension of its former chair, Louise Regan, over her support for Jeremy Corbyn back in November 2020 caused a significant leakage of Labour votes to the localist Nottingham Independents, although UKIP's absence helped them as well given that the Nottingham Independents' founding members were originally UKIP members. Thus it is not surprising that they performed poorly in the St Ann's by-election given St Ann's ethnic diversity. By the same measure, the hardline socialist TUSC should have performed better in radical and relatively poor St Ann's ward than in middle-class progressive Sherwood ward, but the opposite proved to be the case.

The disparities in Liberal Democrat performance in the Comeytrowe & Trull by-election (for Somerset County Council, soon to be abolished) and the Wilton & Sherford by-election (for Somerset West & Taunton District Council, also soon to be abolished) can be attributed to the division being seen as the marginal with the ward partly within it being seen is safe, which also explains the strong Liberal Democrat upsurge in the Cranleigh East by-election, where Labour did not stand and where there was pressure to capture the (limited) Labour vote.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

My analysis of the Swedish general election of 2022

The Swedish general election of 2022 generated some surprising results, despite also averting pollsters' predictions significantly. The last three years in particular proved to be a rough ride for the Social Democrat led governments of Stefan Lofven and Magdalena Andersson respectively. Although Sweden's laxer approach to the COVID-19 pandemic (compared to most countries in Europe, which imposed lockdowns during much of 2020 and 2021, an approach that arguably caused more problems than it solved) proved effective, Mr Lofven's desire to lift the austerity tax (which only affected a wealthy minority, similar in nature to the wealth tax initiative of former French President Francois Hollande) and to join NATO proved contentious, with two of the Social Democrats' former coalition partners (the Swedish Greens and Swedish Left Party, who had both pulled out of confidence and supply) unsurprisingly voting against Swedish accession to NATO membership (all other parties in the R
Read more

On the 2020 Serbian election: Why a boycott will only worsen things there

First of all, I apologise for the recent hiatus; however elections are still postponed or on hold in many countries, including the UK. Serbia, however, was able to proceed with its 2020 general election amidst this crisis. Its overall result proved reminiscent of Hungarian elections under Viktor Orban's tenure (2010-present), since the leading national-conservative coalition, the SNS (Progressive Party of Serbia) coalition led by Serbian President Aleksander Vucic (Ana Brnabic is the Serbian Prime Minister, and the first woman and openly homosexual person to hold that position), polled 61.6% of the vote, giving them as many as 191 seats out of 250 and a majority of as high as 132, almost unheard of in any country with proportional representation. Press freedom has endured significant curbs since President Vucic first came into power as Serbian PM in 2012 (he became President of Serbia in 2017), as have civil liberties of Serbs in general. Nepotism and corruption in the Serbian
Read more

On the Spanish regional elections of 2023-a warning for progressives

The Spanish regional elections of 2023, especially those in the "Empty Spain" regions far west of the federal capital of Madrid and prosperous yet famously rebellious Catalonia, resulted in a sharp shift towards conservatism and conservative populism. Both Partido Popular (PP, Spain's equivalent of the Conservatives) and Vox (the Spanish equivalent of Reform UK/UKIP) made sweeping gains in all regions, notably taking overall control in Madrid (normally an impossible feat under Spain's PR system), more than doubling their seat total in Valencia to top the poll there, and wresting control of Asturias, La Rioja, and Cantabria from the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE, Spain's equivalent of Labour) and the Cantabrian Regionalist Party respectively. Under the tenure of Pedro Sanchez, the current PSOE-Podemos coalition is floundering and has not done much to ensure Spain's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic since the last restrictions ended in 2021, and P
Read more