My analysis of British local by-elections from 7 October 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 7 October 2021 were as follows:

Flintshire UA, Pennyffordd: Labour 437 (37.4%), Independent (Saxon) 286 (24.5%), Independent (Ransome) 281 (24.2%), Independent (Wakelam) 163 (13.9%). Labour gain from Independent.

Nottingham UA, St Ann's: Labour 1,048 (65.5%, +0.8%), Nottingham Independents 204 (11.7%), Conservative 193 (12.1%, +1.9%), Green 92 (5.7%), Liberal Democrats 40 (2.5%, -8.2%), TUSC 24 (1.5%). [No Independents this time]

Nottingham UA, Sherwood: Labour 1,174 (47.8%, -18.4%), Nottingham Independents 629 (25.6%), Conservative 320 (13.0%, -0.3%), Green 195 (7.9%), TUSC 76 (3.1%), Liberal Democrats 63 (2.6%, -9.0%). [UKIP did not stand]

Rushcliffe BC, Musters: Liberal Democrats 557 (45.3%, -12.9%), Labour 353 (28.7%, +9.3%), Conservative 320 (26.0%, +3.6%).

Somerset CC Comeytrowe & Trull: Liberal Democrats 1,677 (63.2%, +15.6%), Conservative 886 (33.4%, -6.4%), Labour 92 (3.5%, -2.4%). [Greens and UKIP did not stand]

Somerset West & Taunton DC, Wilton & Sherford: Liberal Democrats 489 (56.9%, -11.5%), Conservative 314 (36.5%, +4.9%), Green 57 (6.6%).

Waverley DC, Cranleigh East: Liberal Democrats 903 (56.8%, +13.2%), Conservative 686 (43.2%, +4.8%). [Labour did not stand]

Of these seven by-elections, only one changed hands, and this was hardly surprising given that the three Independent candidates had a strong enough personal vote which actually worked against all of them and allowed Labour to slip through the middle, in another exercise of why first past the post is bad for democracy. Tactical voting would not have helped here either as only one political party was standing in that by-election.

In Nottingham, ongoing troubles within Nottingham East CLP since the suspension of its former chair, Louise Regan, over her support for Jeremy Corbyn back in November 2020 caused a significant leakage of Labour votes to the localist Nottingham Independents, although UKIP's absence helped them as well given that the Nottingham Independents' founding members were originally UKIP members. Thus it is not surprising that they performed poorly in the St Ann's by-election given St Ann's ethnic diversity. By the same measure, the hardline socialist TUSC should have performed better in radical and relatively poor St Ann's ward than in middle-class progressive Sherwood ward, but the opposite proved to be the case.

The disparities in Liberal Democrat performance in the Comeytrowe & Trull by-election (for Somerset County Council, soon to be abolished) and the Wilton & Sherford by-election (for Somerset West & Taunton District Council, also soon to be abolished) can be attributed to the division being seen as the marginal with the ward partly within it being seen is safe, which also explains the strong Liberal Democrat upsurge in the Cranleigh East by-election, where Labour did not stand and where there was pressure to capture the (limited) Labour vote.

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